Modelos Computacionais para Simulação do Processo de Expansão da Esquistossomose na

Área Litorânea de Pernambuco

Jones.albuquerque@pesquisador.cnpq.br (coord.)

silvana@deinfo.ufrpe.br

Departamento de Estatística e Informática - DEINFO/UFRPECentro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães - CPqAM/FIOCRUZ

Laboratório de Geoprocessamento e Sensoreamento Remoto - GEOCERE/UFRPE

Laboratório de Realidade Virtual e Visualização Científica – SVVR/LNCC

CASE STUDYTowards Computational Epidemiology

Using Stochastic Cellular Automata in Modeling Spread of Diseases

around the world…

Computational Epidemiology Research Laboratory

University of North TexasEmail: {venkatac, mikler}@cs.unt.edu

This research is in part supported by the National Science Foundation award: NSF-0350200

BR on modeling epidemics…

• Ordinary differential equations• Stochastic Methods• Modeling Simulation• Linear and Non-Linear Programming• Otimization

USP Lectures HEP5710Mathematical Models in EpidemiologyInformatics Department - Codage/USP

Stochastic Cellular Automata Stochastic Cellular Automata a global model…a global model…

Definition of a Fuzzy Set Neighborhood of cell Ci,j is global SCA

Gi,j := {(Ck,l, ΥC i ,j, C k ,l) |for all Ck,l Є C, 0 ≤ Υ Ci,j, Ck,l

≤ 1}

C is a set of all cells in the CA.

ΥC i ,j, C k ,l represents an interaction coefficient that controls all possible interactions between a cell Ci,j and its global neighborhood Gi,j.

A function of inter-cell distance and cell population density.

Itamaracá, Itamaracá, CPqAM/FIOCRUZ!!!!CPqAM/FIOCRUZ!!!!

CPqAM/FIOCRUZ… a lot of information!!CPqAM/FIOCRUZ… a lot of information!!

a cellular automata

VaccinationPopulation

Demographics

Disease Parameters

Data Sets

Visualization

Interaction factors

Distances

Composition Model -Experiment

Population distribution over the north Denton region.

Total Population of 110000 distributed over a grid size of 50 * 100.

Total Population infected at the end of simulation: 48000

Infected Population distribution over the north Denton region.

Goals…Goals…

• Designing tools for investigating local disease clusters through simulation.

• What’s New?– Utilizing GIS and EPI information for modeling – Combining different simulation paradigms– Designing a tool kit to establish a computational

epidemiology model to

How?How?

• CNPq Project: UFRPE and CPqAM/FIOCRUZ

– CMS – Content Management Systems– Mathematical studies– Monitoring and modelling– Analysis e reports

Who?Who?

Jones Albuquerque, Computer ScienceEngineering Systems (DEINFO/UFRPE)Silvana Bocanegra, Computer ScienceMathematics (DEINFO/UFRPE)

UFRPE

GEOCERE Computer Science

Biology

UFABC

(Tereza Raquel, Mathematics/UFABC)

FIOCRUZ

CPqAM

Constança Barbosa, Biology (CPqAM/FIOCRUZ)

Reinaldo Santos, Imaging Processing and Biology (FIOCRUZ-Rio)

Mathematics

LNCC

(Paulo Sérgio, SVVR/LNCC)

When?When?

• Phases– CMS and Epidemiology 2006/2007– Mathematics 2007– Computer Science 2007/2008– Information System 2008– Software Engineering 2008