ASSESSORIA DE IMPRENSA DO GABINETESeleção Diária de Notícias Internacionais

Quinta-feira, 20 de junho de 2013

MANIFESTAÇÕES NO BRASIL 3Hürriyet News (Turquia) – Brazil protests are not like those in Turkey, FM says 3CNN (EUA) – Brazil’s FM: This isn’t like Turkey’s protests (Blog Amanpour) 3BBC Radio 4 (Reino Unido) –Today (Entrevista/Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe) 4The New York Times (EUA) – Brazil’s Leftist Ruling Party, Born of Protests, Is Perplexed by Revolt 5Clarín (Argentina) – Triunfan las movilizaciones: Río y San Pablo bajan las tarifas 7Les Echos (França) – Au Brésil, la révolte fait tache d’huile et cible des politiques désemparés 8La Tribune (França) – Pourquoi le Brésil s'enflamme 9The Guardian (Reino Unido) – Sepp Blatter urges Brazil protesters not to link grievances to football 11Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Pelé tells Brazilians to ‘forget' protests sweeping the country 12Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Brazil's protests (Editorial) 13The Times (Reino Unido) – Brazil's Awakening (Editorial) 14El País (Espanha) – La primera victoria de los 20 céntimos (Opinão/Juan Arias) 15Le Monde (França) – L’explosion sociale au Brésil fragilise la coalition gouvernementale de centre gauche (Blog América Latina) 15

CÚPULA DO G-8/SÍRIA 17Le Monde (França) – La Suisse et l'Autriche pourraient bientôt figurer sur la liste noire des paradis fiscaux 17Financial Times (Reino Unido) – US and Russia find common ground on Syrian conflict 19The Guardian (Reino Unido) – Syria crisis needs political solution, David Cameron tells MPs 20El País (Espanha) – Las conversaciones de Ginebra son clave para Siria (Opinião/Javier Solana) 21

ESTADOS UNIDOS/DESARMAMENTO NUCLEAR 23The New York Times (EUA) – Obama Readying Emissions Limits on Power Plants (Capa) 23Le Figaro (França) – Le faible écho de la doctrine antinucléaire 25Reuters (Reino Unido) – France to maintain nuclear arsenal after Obama call 26El País (Espanha) – Rusia replica que el desarme debe incluir el escudo antimisiles 27Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Obama in Berlin (Editorial) 27

IRÃ 28The Times (Reino Unido) – Ease sanctions against Iran after election of Hassan Rowhani, says Russia

28Financial Times (Reino Unido) – How the west can end the nuclear stand-off with Tehran (Opinião/Ayatollah Seyed Salman Safavi) 30

ORIENTE MÉDIO E NORTE DA ÁFRICA 31Agência EFE (Espanha) – Ashton reafirma a Abás el apoyo de la UE a esfuerzos para reactivar diálogo

31Le Figaro (França) – La nouvelle donne stratégique au Moyen-Orient 32Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Egypt's Morsi tries to shore up popular support ahead of protest 33

MERCOSUL 34ABC Color (Paraguai) – El gran obstáculo del Mercosur es Argentina, aseguran en Brasil 34El Comercio (Equador) – Ecuador solicitó proceso de negociación para ser miembro de Mercosur 35

VENEZUELA 36Le Figaro (França) – Le président vénézuélien reçu discrètement à l’Élysée 36ABC Color (Paraguai) – Informe de misión europea sostiene que la elección de Maduro es nula 37

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The Miami Herald (EUA) – Carter will irk both sides in Venezuela (Opinião/Andres Oppenheimer) 38

AMÉRICA LATINA E CARIBE 39Clarín (Argentina) – Timerman ratifica el planteo de solución pacífica por Malvinas 39Ansa Latina (Itália) – Las FARC "proponen" democratizar el estado 40The Wall Street Journal (EUA) – Ministers MacKay and Ablonczy and General Lawson Announce Increased Support to UN Mission in Haiti 41El País (Espanha) – EE UU y Cuba retoman el diálogo sobre los acuerdos migratórios 42El País (Espanha) – ¿Pierde Estados Unidos a Latinoamérica? (Opinião/ Shlomo Bem Ami) 43

EUROPA 45Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Erdogan woos Turks with promises of more prosperity 45La Tribune (França) – Chypre est bien partie pour redevenir le cauchemar des Européens 46

ÁSIA 47Reuters (Reino Unido) – Afghan peace bid stumbles on Kabul-Taliban protocol row 47Reuters (Reino Unido) – Myanmar constitution likely to dash Suu Kyi's presidential hopes 49

ÁFRICA 51Global Post (EUA) – UN vows attack will not end Somalia mission 51People's Daily Online (China) – Consejo de Seguridad de ONU elogia acuerdo de tregua en Mali 52Le Monde (França) – Quand la marine française traque les pirates 53Libération (França) – «Ils avaient la corde au cou» (Entrevista/Harouna Toureh) 55

DIREITOS HUMANOS 56Inter Press Services (Itália) – Highest Number of Refugees in Two Decades 56

TEMAS ECONÔMICOS, FINANCEIROS E COMERCIAIS 58Reuters (Reino Unido) – Brazil inflation erodes Rousseff's popularity – poll 58Reuters (Reino Unido) – Brasil vai retomar crescimento robusto, diz Tombini—jornal 59Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Royalty rise tests Brazilian mining relations 59Les Echos (França) – Fed: possible décélération du « QE3 » 60

OUTROS TEMAS 61The New York Times (EUA) – U.S. Accuses 3 Countries of Abetting Human Trafficking 61

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MANIFESTAÇÕES NO BRASIL

Hürriyet News (Turquia) – Brazil protests are not like those in Turkey, FM saysAfter over a week of protests - the largest to sweep Brazil in more than two decades - that continued in major capitals and moved to smaller cities, Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota answered questions from the veteran CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday in an exclusive interview.

The foreign minister said he did not think his country would see the type of violence and confrontation that Turkey has seen in the past weeks.

“I think it’s a different situation; the manifestations have been peaceful, predominately,” Antonio Patriota said.

Amanpour then asked Patriota that if this was the case, why had the federal riot police been sent to five major cities.

“There may be episodes of violence here and there and, of course, the security forces have to be prepared because there are large numbers of people involved,” Patriota told Amanpour. “And our expectation is that they will continue to manifest in a peaceful way.”

Echoing statements from President Dilma Rousseff, the foreign minister said in a calm tone that Brazil is a stronger country because of the protests, and that these demonstrations are all part of the democratic process.

“Her government has lifted millions out of the poverty and joined the middle class,” he said of the administrations of Rousseff and former President Lula da Silva. “And it’s natural that rising living conditions should give rise to higher expectations.”

Rousseff on Tuesday sought to defuse a massive protest movement sweeping Brazil, acknowledging the need for better public services and more responsive governance as demonstrations continued in some cities around the country.

"Brazil woke up stronger today," Rousseff said in a televised speech in Brasilia. "The size of yesterday's [June 17] demonstrations shows the energy of our democracy, the strength of the voice of the streets and the civility of our population."

CNN (EUA) – Brazil ’s FM: This isn’t like Turkey’s protests (Blog Amanpour)By Samuel Burke

Brazil is in the throes of massive protests, but its foreign minister does not think that his country will see the type of violence and confrontation that Turkey has seen in the past weeks.

“I think it’s a different situation; the manifestations have been peaceful, predominately,” Antonio Patriota told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday in an exclusive interview.

But federal riot police have been sent to five major cities.

“There may be episodes of violence here and there and, of course, the security forces have to be prepared because there are large numbers of people involved,” Patriota told Amanpour. “And our expectation is that they will continue to manifest in a peaceful way.”

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Echoing statements from President Dilma Rousseff, the foreign minister said in a calm tone that Brazil is a stronger country because of the protests, and that these demonstrations are all part of the democratic process.

“Her government has lifted millions out of the poverty and joined the middle class,” he said of the administrations of Rousseff and former President Lula da Silva. “And it’s natural that rising living conditions should give rise to higher expectations.”

BBC Radio 4 (Reino Unido) –Today (Entrevista/Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe) BBC – Roberto Jaguaribe is the Brazil´s Ambassador to the Uk. Good morning. Whats happening? Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe – Good morning. BBC – Whats happening? Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe – Well, it´s difficult. We have to hear their message and we have to try to understand. The social media has become a very important form of communication and of manifestation, and of getting people together, especially young people, and they have created new modes of political participation. We in Brazil believe that this is very healthy, we believe it shows an intent of participating in the democratic process in Brazil. So, in spite of some occasional rioting, the protests have been very interesting and helpful, and I think that it is something that we have to understand better and to be able to comply and reply to their demands. BBC – You say you are looking forward to understanding it better. It is confusing, isn’t it? Because on the face of it, Brazil has, number one, lifted an awful lot of people out of poverty in the last ten years, and has very low youth unemployment. But also, number two, there is a generalized sense that the country has been doing well. Where do you think it went wrong? Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe – Well, I don’t think it is really going wrong. I think it is going in a way in which more people are fully participating in Brazil´s political life. I mean, the major transformation of Brazil over the past years has not been economic growth, it has been social integration. It has been transforming marginalized people into more and more citizenship. It has been the creation of 60 million new bank accounts, besides the incorporation of many new people into the middle class and lifting people out of extreme poverty. So, the incorporation as full citzenships generates new demands, which are very reasonable and expected. BBC – That’s interesting, isn’t it? Because someone in that piece was saying… she drew a distinction between access to consumption and access to citizenship. And that’s quite a telling one. Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe – My perception is exactly in the same line, but I would say that citizenship is a psychosocial perception. Brazil´s poor were used to be perceived as marginalized. Now, because of a process of incorporation, and because of many other factors, they perceive that they are more part of the country, that they are more owners of the country. And they generate demands because of that. BBC – Interesting lessons there for other countries. The Chinese must be watching what is happening on the streets of Rio with some interest. Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe – Well, I am sure other countries, all countries in fact, are watching. I think it is a learning process for everybody, and certainly for us in Brazil. That is something that we have to cope with and understand better. In fact, we have to be able to receive their messages. The message is diffuse, as you have seen, but I think it is

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important to hear what they have to say. And it is important to bring people more actively into political participation and full democratic life, something which sometimes seems to be dormant, and… the establishment deals with it in a different process. BBC – Yes, because there has been some violence. Tear gas was used, rubber bullets were used, some complaints about a tough crackdown. It is a difficult one, isn’t it? Because they might not be able to behave now as they were used to behaving in the past.

Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe – Well, I think that when you have large agglomerations, and you have seen that this is not localized in a single city, although it has started in one, it has spread trough Brazil… When you have many thousands of people going to the streets, you are bound to have a number of, let's say, irresponsible behavior. The police has been very very aware in other to do two things: first of all, protect the peaceful manifestations; and avoid that they become more riotous and looting, which has occurred. It is a delicate behavior for the police. BBC – Roberto Jaguaribe, thank you very much.

The New York Times (EUA) – Brazil ’s Leftist Ruling Party, Born of Protests, Is Perplexed by RevoltBy SIMON ROMERO

The protests were heating up on the streets of Brazil’s largest city last week, but the mayor was not in his office. He was not even in the city. He had left for Paris to try to land the 2020 World’s Fair — exactly the kind of expensive, international mega-event that demonstrators nationwide have scorned.

A week later, the mayor, Fernando Haddad, 50, was holed up in his apartment as scores of protesters rallied outside and others smashed the windows of his office building, furious that he had refused to meet with them, much less yield to their demand to revoke a contentious bus fare increase.

How such a rising star in the leftist governing party, someone whose name is often mentioned as a future presidential contender, so badly misread the national mood reflects the disconnect between a growing segment of the population and a government that prides itself on popular policies aimed at lifting millions out of poverty.

After rising to prominence on the backs of huge protests to usher in democratic leadership, the governing Workers Party now finds itself perplexed by the revolt in its midst, watching with dismay as political corruption, bad public services and the government’s focus on lifting Brazil’s international stature through events like the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics inspire outrage.

On Wednesday, tens of thousands protested outside the newly built stadium where Brazil faced off against Mexico in the Confederations Cup, as the police tried to disperse them with tear gas, rubber bullets and pepper spray. In what would normally be a moment of unbridled national pride, demonstrators held up placards demanding schools and hospitals at the “FIFA standard,” challenging the money Brazil is spending on the World Cup instead of on health care or the poorly financed public schools.

With support for the protests escalating — a new poll by Datafolha found that 77 percent of São Paulo residents approved of them this week, compared with 55 percent the week before — Mayor Haddad and Geraldo Alckmin, the governor from an opposition party, bowed on Wednesday night, announcing that they would cancel the bus and subway fare increases after all. Other cities, including Rio de Janeiro, pledged to do the same.

But while the fare increases might have been the spark that incited the protests, they unleashed a much broader wave of frustration against politicians from an array of parties that the government has openly acknowledged it did not see coming.

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“It would be a presumption to think that we understand what is happening,” Gilberto Carvalho, a top aide to President Dilma Rousseff, told senators on Tuesday. “We need to be aware of the complexity of what is occurring.”

The swell of anger is a stunning change from the giddy celebrations that occurred in 2007, when Brazil was chosen by soccer’s governing body to host the World Cup. At the time, dozens of climbers scaled Rio de Janeiro’s Sugar Loaf Mountain, from which they hung an enormous jersey with the words “The 2014 World Cup is Ours.”

“We are a civilized nation, a nation that is going through an excellent phase, and we have got everything prepared to receive adequately the honor to organize an excellent World Cup,” Ricardo Teixeira, then the president of the Brazilian Football Confederation, said at the time.

Since then, the sentiment surrounding Brazil’s preparations for the World Cup, and much else overseen by the government, has shifted. Mr. Teixeira himself resigned last year, under a cloud of corruption allegations, and while the Brazilian government says it is spending about $12 billion on preparing for the World Cup, most of the stadiums are over budget, according to the government’s own audits court.

The sheen that once clung to the Workers Party has also been tarnished by a vast vote-buying scheme called the mensalão, or big monthly allowance, in a nod to the regular payments some lawmakers received. The scandal resulted in the recent conviction of several of high-ranking officials, including a party president and a chief of staff for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was a popular Brazilian president.

“There’s been a democratic explosion on the streets,” said Marcos Nobre, a professor at the University of Campinas. “The Workers Party thinks it represents all of the progressive elements in the country, but they’ve been power now for a decade. They’ve done a lot, but they’re now the establishment.”

The economic growth that once propelled Brazil’s global ambitions has slowed considerably, and inflation, a scourge for decades until the mid-1990s, has re-emerged as a worry for many Brazilians.

But expectations among Brazilians remain high, thanks in large part to the government’s own success at diminishing inequality and raising living standards for millions over the last decade. The number of university students doubled from 2000 to 2011, according to Marcelo Ridenti, a prominent sociologist.

“This generates huge changes in society, including changes in expectations among young people,” he said. “They expect to get not only jobs, but good jobs.”

Unemployment is still at historical lows — partly because of the very stadiums and other construction projects that have become the source of such ire among some protesters. But well-paying jobs remain out of reach for many college graduates, who see a sharp difference between their prospects and those of political leaders.

“I think our politicians get too much money,” said Amanda Marques, 23, a student, referring not to graft but to their salaries.

Earlier this year, Mr. Alckmin, the governor, announced that he was giving himself and thousands of other public employees a raise of more than 10 percent; his own salary should climb to about $10,000 a month as a result. High salaries for certain public employees have long been a festering source of resentment in Brazil, with some officials earning well more than counterparts in rich industrialized nations.

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Both Mr. Alckmin and Mr. Haddad followed the protests together in Paris last week on their smartphones. But at the time, Mr. Alckmin dismissed the protests as the equivalent to a routine strike by air traffic controllers in Paris, something “that happens.”

“What has to be done is be strong and stand firm to avoid excesses,” he told reporters then, before the protests had spread on the streets of São Paulo and dozens of other cities across Brazil.

By this week, it was clear how thoroughly officials had miscalculated. At one point on Tuesday night, protesters tried to break into the Municipal Theater, where operagoers were watching Stravinsky’s “Rake’s Progress.” The doors to the elegant theater remained shut and as the show went on, they spray-painted the outside of the recently renovated structure with the words “Set Fire to the Bourgeoisie.”

William Neuman contributed reporting from São Paulo; and Andrew Downie from Recife.

Clarín (Argentina) – Triunfan las movilizaciones: Río y San Pablo bajan las tarifasPor Eleonora Gosman

Las fuertes protestas quebraron la decisión de los gobiernos estaduales. Las marchas habían estallado por el aumento del pasaje de ómnibus. Y se extendieron a otras reivindicaciones sociales.

San Pablo. Corresponsal

El intendente de San Pablo, Fernando Haddad, y el gobernador paulista, Geraldo Alckmin, anunciaron ayer una vuelta atrás en el reajuste aplicado hace diez días, que llevó el pasaje en el transporte público de 3 a 3,20 reales. “El aumento será derogado” dijeron en una conferencia de prensa ofrecida en forma conjunta. En Río de Janeiro tomaron la misma decisión. Fue luego de que por la mañana de ayer, y desde muy temprano, las protestas se extendieron a la periferia de esta ciudad. Los barrios paulistas comenzaron a rebelarse, en sintonía con las manifestaciones ocurridas los últimos días en el centro de la ciudad.

“Milagros ocurren cuando la gente va a la lucha”, rezaba un cartel exhibido por esos manifestantes. Fueron los vecinos movilizados por el Movimiento Periferia Activa y los del Movimiento de Trabajadores Sin Techo (MTST). Y no sólo en los barrios pobres y más alejados del centro paulistano fueron a las calles a protestar. También hubo marchas en municipios del célebre ABCD paulista, que en los años 80 fuera la cuna del Partido de los Trabajadores fundado por el ex presidente Lula da Silva.

Fue el ”despertar” movilizador de este cordón industrial lo que convenció al gobernador Alckmin de la necesidad de una rápida acción oficial para frenar el incendio ciudadano.

Hubo también fuertes presiones desde el Palacio del Planalto, en Brasilia, para que las autoridades de San Pablo y Río de Janeiro procedieran a calmar un movimiento de masas juveniles cada vez más enardecido.

En el ánimo de las autoridades paulistas y cariocas pesaron, además, escenas de descontrol vividas el martes por la noche en las dos grandes ciudades. A los gritos de “romper, romper es mejor que manifestar”, grupos de muchachos con el torso desnudo y los rostros cubiertos saquearon negocios de telefonía celular e informática en el centro de San Pablo. Quisieron también entrar en el edificio de la intendencia, pero al no lograr el cometido comenzaron a tirar objetos incendiados a través de las rejas del predio. Hasta un vehículo del canal de TV Rede Record sufrió la bronca juvenil.

Es difícil pronosticar si este retroceso de las autoridades en San Pablo y Río de Janeiro irá realmente a aplacar a las masas juveniles.

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En principio, con la victoria de ayer, podría pensarse que se cumplió una de las grandes aspiraciones de los manifestantes. Según una encuesta de la consultora Datafolha, 67% de los que salieron a las calles dicen que fue por el reajuste del pasaje.

Sin embargo, 35% argumentó que se movilizaban sobre todo contra los políticos y la corrupción.

Vale recordar que en las manifestaciones céntricas, tanto en San Pablo como en Río de Janeiro, Porto Alegre y Brasilia, abundaron los carteles con la consigna: “No son sólo 20 centavos” en alusión al aumento practicado hace 15 días. Entre las otras demandas del movimiento juvenil figuraron, también, más salud y educación, una demanda difusa de mayores derechos y un freno a la corrupción.

En otras ciudades brasileñas, como es el caso de Fortaleza, lo que movilizó a los brasileños fue el enojo con los gastos que ha demandado la organización de la Copa de Confederaciones y la Copa del Mundo del año próximo (ver “Choques...) Según estimaciones del propio gobierno federal, ambos acontecimientos deportivos van a insumir 14.000 millones de dólares. Muchos brasileños entienden que ese cuantioso caudal de dinero podría haberse aplicado a una mejora sustancial de la educación y la salud, un ámbito en que los gobiernos, desde el central hasta los provinciales y municipales, tienen una gran deuda pendiente.

En Brasil, hay antecedentes de grandes marchas que resultaron victoriosas. En los años 80 hubo movilizaciones en todo el país en reclamo de elecciones presidenciales directas. La consigna de entoces era: “Directas ya”. Finalmente fue una reivindicación atendida en 1989. Otra gran explosión ocurrió en 1992, cuando los jóvenes se lanzaron a las calles para exigir el juicio político a Fernando Collor de Mello. Aquella gran movida terminó con la salida del ex presidente. Pero esta movilización tiene grandes diferencias con sus antecesoras. Es muy espontánea y las convocatorias no proceden de partidos políticos o de organizaciones sociales sino de las redes sociales que comunican horizontalmente a través de internet.

Les Echos (França) – Au Brésil , la révolte fait tache d’huile et cible des politiques désemparésThierry Ogier Correspondant à São Paulo

Le mouvement lancé par les jeunes contre la vie chère gagne les banlieues populaires.

Les organisateurs des manifestations, tout comme les politiques, semblent débordés.

«Excusez le dérangement. Nous sommes en train de changer notre pays.» C’est en demandant littéralement pardon que certains manifestants brandissent leurs banderoles dans les rues du Brésil. Une manière polie d’alimenter la révolte, qui s’est vite répandue à travers le pays. A l’origine, une revendication des jeunes contre l’augmentation du prix des transports en commun dans les grandes villes. De manière inattendue, la revendication du mouvement «Passe livre» (transport gratuit) a provoqué une véritable déflagration aux quatre coins du Brésil. De São Paulo, le mouvement s’est étendu aux autres grands centres urbains et a gagné depuis hier les banlieues populaires.

Mais les jeunes leaders des manifestations, davantage adeptes de Facebook et de Twitter que des grandes assemblées générales pour encadrer les militants, ont rapidement été dépassés. Après l’attaque en règle contre l’assemblée législative de Rio lundi, des casseurs se sont livrés à des scènes de pillage dans le centre de São Paulo et ont tenté de pénétrer de force dans la mairie de São Paulo mardi soir. Lula à la rescousseToutefois, le maire, Fernando Haddad, avait déjà quitté les lieux. Direction  : réunion d’urgence à l’aéroport avec Lula, l’ancien président, qui fait figure de conseiller en chef des gouvernants actuels, et son successeur, Dilma Rousseff, venue de Brasilia après avoir déclaré qu’il «fallait écouter la voix de la rue ». Une véritable cellule de crise improvisée.

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Lula se montre déjà préoccupé par ce divorce entre les jeunes et son parti des travailleurs (PT), au pouvoir depuis 2003. De surcroît, la popularité de Dilma Rousseff commence à accuser une baisse sensible, selon plusieurs sondages, même si elle demeure élevée. De son côté, Fernando Haddad préfère rester ferme. Il s’est refusé hier à revenir sur l’augmentation (de 6%) du tarif des bus, décrétée au début du mois.

La classe politique, cible privilégiée des manifestants, qui s’insurgent pêle-mêle contre la corruption et les dépenses engagées avant la coupe du monde de football, a du mal à trouver des réponses à des demandes aussi diffuses. «L’objectif n’est pas de renverser le gouvernement, mais de réclamer des améliorations [dans les services publics]», note l’économiste brésilien Marcelo Salomon de Barclays Capital, à New York. «Le gouvernement prend peu à peu la mesure de ces manifestations, mais il doit encore comprendre le motif qui a conduit à un tel soulèvement à l’heure actuelle, alors que le taux de chômage reste faible. » Le secrétaire général de la présidence, Gilberto Carvalho, n’hésite pas à tirer la sonnette d’alarme. Ce proche de Lula, chargé des liens avec la société civile, estime que le mouvement est «légitime». «Nous devons le comprendre, sinon, nous serons balayés par le cours de l’histoire», assure-t-il.

Hier, les manifestations ont commencé très tôt à la périphérie de São Paulo, les agents de la circulation se sont mis en grève et plusieurs routes ont été coupées. Des affrontements entre manifestants et forces de l’ordre ont eu lieu à Fortaleza, dans le Nordeste, quelques heures avant un match de l’équipe de football du Brésil (contre le Mexique) dans le cadre de la Coupe des confédérations.

La Tribune (França) – Pourquoi le Brésil s'enflamme Depuis le week-end dernier, le Brésil est touché par de grandes manifestations ayant attiré dans les rues plus de 200 000 personnes. Lundi, des échauffourées ont éclaté à Rio entre les manifestants et la police. Les Brésiliens protestent contre l'augmentation du prix des tickets de transports en commun et le coût de l'organisation de la Coupe du monde de football, qui se déroulera dans le pays en 2014. Si le Brésil affiche encore des taux de chômage extrêmement bas, la croissance de la septième puissance économique mondiale faiblit depuis trois ans.

Des images des rues de Rio Janeiro en flammes, des policiers aspergeant les manifestants avec des bombes lacrymogènes, des casseurs s'attaquant aux forces de l'ordre... Le Brésil est sorti de son calme. Lundi, plus de 200 000 personnes sont descendues dans les rues de ce pays où les manifestations restent encore rares. La fronde, débutée le week-end dernier, s'est radicalisée. Des échauffourées ont éclaté à Rio faisant une trentaine de blessés.

Depuis samedi, les Brésiliens protestent contre la hausse du prix des tickets des transports en commun. En pleine Coupe des fédérations de football, ils ont également voulu dénoncer le coût des dépenses publiques engrangées pour financer l'organisation de la Coupe du monde de football, qui aura lieu dans le pays en 2014.

Devant l'ampleur des manifestations, le ministre des Sports a répliqué : "Nous ne permettrons pas que des manifestations perturbent les événements que nous nous sommes engagés à réaliser". Quelques heures plus tard, la président Dilma Rousseff (Parti des travailleurs) a préféré jouer la carte de l'apaisement : "Les manifestations pacifiques sont légitimes et propres à la démocratie". Surnommée la "révolte du vinaigre" sur les réseaux sociaux, le mouvement devait se poursuivre aujourd'hui. Alors pourquoi les jeunes brésiliens sont-ils donc descendus dans la rue ?

Les jeunes veulent profiter de la croissanceRio, São Paulo, Brasilia... Les manifestations ont touché les métropoles abritant les grands pôles universitaires. Des milliers d'étudiants se sont mobilisés suite aux multiples appels à manifester lancés sur les réseaux sociaux. "Ce sont les jeunes de la classe moyenne éduquée qui sont descendus dans la rue. Ils veulent enfin profiter de la croissance ", décrit Julien Vercueil, spécialiste de l'économie des BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique

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du Sud) et auteur de Pays émergents: Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine... Mutations économiques et nouveaux défis. La croissance ? Elle ne représentait pourtant que 0,9% du PIB en 2012, bien loin des chiffres affichés par la Chine (7,8%) ou l'Inde (4%). "En Asie, la productivité horaire est plus compétitive. Il ne faut pas se focaliser sur ce taux de croissance. Le pays reste en bonne santé économique, notamment grâce à ses exportations de matières premières. Mais la jeunesse n'a pas l'impression d'en profiter", résume Julien Vercueil. La croissance connaît tout de même une forte baisse puisqu'elle s'élevait à 2,7% du PIB en 2011 et 7,5% en 2010.

La menace de l'inflationLe Brésil dispose d'une monnaie très forte comparée aux autres pays émergeants (1 real équivaut environs à 0,34 euros). "Leur monnaie est surévaluée à l'échelle mondiale", estime Julien Vercueil. La Banque centrale brésilienne est donc intervenue pour faire baisser le real de 40% face au dollar et redonner ainsi de la compétitivité à l'industrie. Une tactique qui a augmenté les exportations, mais aussi le prix des produits importés.

L'an passé, l'inflation a progressé de 5,84%. Les prix ont été tirés à la hausse par les médicaments (+0,9%), les vêtements (+0,8%) et le logement (+0,7%). Le 30 mai, la Banque centrale du Brésil a relevé son taux d'intérêt directeur de 0,5 point à 8%, pour tenter de freiner l'inflation. Reste à savoir si et quand les effets se feront ressentir.

De l'argent pour la santé et l'éducationLes manifestations ont débuté samedi à São Paulo, une ville de 11 millions d'habitants où le réseau de transports en commun est vétuste et restreint. Le 2 juin dernier, le prix des tickets de métro et de bus y a augmenté de 20 centimes de reals, passant ainsi de 3 à 3,20 reals. "La somme peut paraître modique, mais cette augmentation est l'élement déclencheur d'un mécontentement de plus en plus prégnant chez les classes moyennes. Elles ne comprennent pas que l'argent public serve à construire des grands stades de football, qui seront peu rentables au final. Elles souhaiteraient plutôt qu'on améliore enfin leurs conditions de vie, notamment dans les secteurs de la santé et de l'éducation", note Julien Vercueil.

Si le chômage est relativement bas (5,5%), le Brésil reste un des pays les plus inégalitaires au monde et la corruption des classes politiques très élevée. Le coût de la Coupe du monde évalué à 15 milliards de dollars sera en partie financé par les 200 millions d'habitants du plus grand pays d'Amérique latine. Les Brésiliens comptent parmi les contribuables payant le plus d'impôts au monde.

The Guardian (Reino Unido) – Sepp Blatter urges Brazil protesters not to link grievances to footballJonathan Watts

Fifa president Sepp Blatter has called on Brazil's protesters to stop linking their demonstrations to football, as police stepped up reinforcements ahead of expected clashes at Confederations Cup matches taking place in Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza.

After protests on the fringes of earlier games, boos during official speeches in the stadiums and placards on the streets condemning Fifa, the head of the world football body said the tournament – a dry run for next year's World Cup – was being wrongly targeted.

"I can understand that people are not happy, but they should not use football to make their demands heard," Blatter said on Globo TV, a domestic station.

His appeal looks likely to fall on deaf ears. Protesters on Wednesday blocked the road to the stadium in Fortaleza, where Brazil were due to play against Mexico. Police turned back hundreds of cars.

There is also a Twitter and Facebook campaign for spectators inside the ground to turn their backs when the national anthem is played.

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Several of Brazil's national team players have also expressed their support for the demonstrators.

"I see these demonstrators and I know that they are right," the midfielder Hulk told a press conference in Fortaleza.

"We know that Brazil needs to improve in many areas and must let the demonstrators express themselves."

Brazil is in the midst of its biggest wave of protests in 20 years. Initially sparked by police violence against small demonstrations against bus price rises, the protests have rapidly expanded in size, range and motivations.

On Monday night, a quarter of a million people rallied in more than a dozen cities to express a range of grievances, including dire public services, corruption and evictions.

Fifa's tournaments have become a focus for many demonstrators, who feel the 12 stadiums that the country has built or renovated at huge cost show how public money is spent on projects that benefit construction companies and TV stations rather than on hospital and schools.

This argument has been eloquently expressed in English in a popular YouTube video titled "No, I'm not going to the world cup" which has drawn more than 1.5m views.

The video's narrator, Carla Dauden, said: "Suddenly there is all this money available to build new stadiums and the population is led to believe the World Cup is the change they need for their lives to get better. But the truth is that most of the money from the games and the stadiums goes straight to Fifa and we don't see it so we don't get it and the money from tourists and investors goes to those who already have money."

The government says the $13.3bn spending on the tournaments is also being used to improve roads, metro services, airports, communications and public security – all of which would help to boost the country's economic and social development.

This point was emphasised by Blatter, who said Fifa did not impose the tournament on the hosts. "Brazil asked to host the World Cup," Blatter said. "They knew that to host a good World Cup they would naturally have to build stadiums.

"But we said that it was not just for the World Cup. Together with the stadiums there are other constructions: highways, hotels, airports … Items that are for the future. Not just for the World Cup."

He and Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff were booed by the crowd at the opening ceremony of the Confederations Cup on Saturday.

This are unlikely to be the last insults they hear. The football tournament will run until 16 July.

The protests are expected to escalate with bigger rallies planned for Thursday. Despite Blatter's appeal, it is unlikely the two will remain apart.

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Pelé tells Brazilians to ‘forget' protests sweeping the countryJoe Leahy

Brazil's greatest footballer, Pelé, one of the best players of all-time, has shocked Brazilians by urging them to "forget" the protests sweeping the country and concentrate on cheering for the national team.

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His remarks came as a 2011 video of another of Brazil's all-time football stars, Ronaldo, resurfaced on the internet in which he seemed to place a higher priority on building football stadiums than improving the country's appalling public health system.

"Let's forget all of this mayhem that's happening in Brazil, all of these protests, and let's remember that the national team is our country, our blood," Pelé, the official ambassador of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, urged viewers of TV Tribuna de Santos, a local television station.

The remarks by the former player, known as the "King of Football", has appalled Brazilians, who have turned out in their hundreds of thousands to support the country's biggest street protests in nearly a generation.

"Pelé is not conscious of what's happening in the country," said Romário, another former Brazilian soccer champion who is now a federal congressman.

The comments also threw a spotlight on the increasing politicisation of football in a country in which the sport is a national obsession.

The protests initially involved a small group of students but following a violent police response they have widened to become a national movement with public support stretching across socioeconomic classes.

The protests have targeted corruption and wastage by the nation's politicians, particularly the country's extravagant investment in two mega sporting events, the World Cup to be held next year and the Olympics in 2016.

Brazilians are angry that the government is investing billions of dollars in the stadiums for the events but has so far failed to deliver significant improvements in public transport, airports and roads.

Brazilians struggle on a daily basis with traffic congestion, poor health facilities and deteriorating public security – the country's media is full of horror stories about carjacking and muggings, such as that of one man in São Paulo this month who was set alight by robbers angry that he only had R$100 in his pocket.

In his video, Ronaldo said Brazil had to prioritise spending on stadiums if it was to host the World Cup. "You can't hold the World Cup with hospitals," he said.

Following an outcry over his comments, Pelé later said he supported peaceful protests and was only trying to urge Brazilians to show more faith in the national squad, whose chances of winning next year's World Cup are looking grim.

Ronaldo also said he supported the protests and that the video was made two years ago during different times.

"I'm not responsible for the spending of public money and I reject corruption," he said. "I feel pride when I see peaceful and democratic protests throughout the country."

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Brazil 's protests (Editorial) Everyone is struggling to understand Brazil's occasionally violent street protests, the country's biggest in two decades.

Although sparked by a 20 cent increase in bus fares, they are not, at heart, about economic issues: incomes and employment remain high. Nor are they political, a tropical version of the Arab spring or Turkish protests. President Dilma Rousseff remains popular, for now.

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Rather they have formed out of a leaderless social movement, fed by Twitter and Facebook, that expresses a diffuse set of grievances, from corruption and public mis-spending to the cost of living. This is also in tune with a perhaps more worrying investor zeitgeist: one which suggests the Brazilian model may have reached its limit.

Brazil has enjoyed a spectacular 10-year run of economic growth, thanks to the commodity boom and steroid-like injections of consumer credit. Some 30m people, who have risen out of poverty as a result, can now buy consumer goods like never before. But social changes elsewhere have not kept up with the demands of this newly entitled, if still precarious, middle class. The result is a disconnect: between the bad old' Brazil that Brazilians are told they have left behind, and the glorious new one the government says they live in.

For example, cultivating Brazil's global image by spending $12bn on football stadiums for the 2014 World Cup is all very well. But not when life for the majority is so hard. They pay developed world taxes for still shoddy developing world public services. Overcrowded buses and thick traffic make the daily commute an expensive and time-consuming grind. Government corruption is rife. The disconnect is especially large when it comes to unreformed institutions, such as the police. Their thuggery against protesters really set national indignation alight.

This disquiet that "new Brazil" may be little changed from the "old Brazil" is not unique. All over South America, citizens are fed up with being told how good things are. In prosperous Chile, it is over outrageous university bills and lack of social mobility. In more revolutionary Argentina, it is over a government that is out of touch and riddled with corruption but piously declares otherwise.

All these social protests cut across the political spectrum; no leader is immune. In many ways, they are akin to growing concern in financial markets about emerging markets as a whole. Both are warnings that the political salad days and easy money of the past decade may be drawing to a close.

The Times (Reino Unido) – Brazil 's Awakening (Editorial) Quarter of a million people have taken to the streets of Brazil's largest cities in the past two weeks. Bank windows have been smashed. In a few cases demonstrators have been tear-gassed and attacked with pepper spray. In many more they have protested angrily but peacefully about rising livings costs, poor public services and debilitating corruption. In short, Brazilian democracy has never looked more vibrant.

The immediate cause of the protests that have produced images from São Paulo so similar to those of the unrest in Istanbul was a rise in the price of bus fares at the beginning of the month. With a restrained police response the demonstrations might not have spread. Instead, poorly trained military police turned violent last week and sympathy protests broke out from Brasilia to Rio de Janeiro.

The movement has acquired a name (the Salad Revolution, because of the vinegar used by protesters against the tear gas), an impressive social media presence and a lengthening list of grievances. Chief among these is the £1 billion so far spent on football stadiums for the 2014 World Cup in a country that ranks 85th on the UN's human development index.

It would be callous to make light of the deep social problems that have turned Brazil's streets into such an unfamiliar carnival of anxiety. Despite a decade of heavy spending on food programmes, millions still go hungry every day. Police corruption is endemic. Drug-related crime remains a scourge of the favelas and the main justification for a fortress mentality isolating the country's political and business elites.

Yet the underlying trends are far more positive. A decade of growth has lifted an estimated 40 million Brazilians out of poverty. Income inequality, though still severe, has narrowed in each of the past 14 years. Brazil was the first developing economy to return to growth

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after the financial crisis and even though that growth has since stagnated, youth unemployment is at a record low.

The result is the emergence of a middle class that only now has found the confidence to demand a new deal from its government. It certainly deserves one: Brazilians pay more tax than the citizens of any other major emerging economy and are rightly dissatisfied with the schools, hospitals and public transport provided in return.

It now falls to President Dilma Roussef to respond appropriately. She has made a creditable start. Unlike Turkey's embattled Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, she has welcomed the demonstrations as "proof of the energy of our democracy". Unlike Mr Erdogan, who turned his back on Turkey's protesters for a defiant tour of North Africa, Ms Roussef has called her Vice President back from a foreign trip and ordered Brazil's military police to avoid confrontation at all costs.

They have heeded her instructions and participants say some protests have even turned festive. But the kumbaya moment will not last. Ms Roussef has months, not years, to show concrete progress in delivering 21st-century public services as well as football stadiums.

Brazil is committed to hosting the World Cup and the next Olympics. These will bring prestige but also scrutiny, with the potential to benefit the protesters more than they acknowledge. Already, hard as it may be for them to admit, many Brazilians have never had it so good.

El País (Espanha) – La primera victoria de los 20 céntimos (Opinão/Juan Arias)Si es cierto que menos es más, la primera victoria real de la protesta callejera brasileña ha empezado por lo más pequeño: la suspensión de los 20 céntimos de aumento de los transportes en São Paulo y en Río de Janeiro.

Un menos que tiene un enorme valor simbólico, porque había sido la mecha que hizo prender el fuego. Tanto, que trajo de cabeza estos días a las autoridades de Brasil, temerosas de ceder a una protesta sin líderes que podría ponerlos de rodillas ante los gritos de la calle.

Primero aseguraron que no era posible volver atrás. Después, que el Congreso debía aprobar una ley para exonerar de no sé qué impuestos. Al final, la rendición.

Ganaron los 20 céntimos. La protesta forjará ahora un camino para que todas las demás ciudades sigan el ejemplo, aunque es solo el primer paso. Una pancarta decía ayer: “País desarrollado no es aquel donde los pobres tienen coche, sino donde los ricos usan los transportes públicos”.

Ahora exigirán la calidad de los medios de transportes, la seguridad de los que los usan, la puntualidad de sus horarios y el respeto a la dignidad de los ciudadanos que los emplean, ya que a veces parecen transportar ganado y no personas.

Varios expertos en movimientos de masas están afirmando que las reivindicaciones de un movimiento de protesta sin nombre, ambulante, con un rosario de exigencias en sus manos, va a seguir y está llamado a crecer.

Llegarán otras peticiones, que irán desde lo que los pobres sin seguro privado sufren en los hospitales o la precariedad de las escuelas públicas al cáncer de la impunidad que solo lleva a la cárcel y con rapidez a los ciudadanos de a pie y deja libres a los que les sobra nombre y poder para burlar la ley.

Será importante ahora observar la reacción de esas masas a su primera victoria, así como la de los dirigentes políticos ante lo que algunos considerarán una debilidad.

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Ni el movimiento podrá querer acortar etapas ni embriagarse con su primera pequeña gran victoria, ni los administradores públicos pueden ahora sentarse tranquilos a beber una cerveza convencidos de que con ese regalo han saciado el hambre del monstruo.

Paradójicamente, esa victoria podría tanto fortalecer el movimiento como debilitarlo. Es un banco de pruebas para los responsables políticos, que deberán saber demostrar cuándo pueden y deben escuchar esas reivindicaciones y cuándo no.

De ese difícil equilibrio del que camina por encima de un hilo tenso dependerá que lo que aún no tiene nombre como fenómeno de protesta, y que es típicamente brasileño, sea capaz o no de ofrecer algo nuevo e inédito: si será una nueva primavera o si todo acabará en agua de borrajas en las que acaben ahogándose los pobres (y a la vez ricos) 20 céntimos de la discordia.

Le Monde (França) – L’explosion sociale au Brésil fragilise la coalition gouvernementale de centre gauche (Blog América Latina)Paulo Paranagua

A quinze mois de l’élection présidentielle d’octobre 2014, l’explosion sociale au Brésil fragilise la coalition gouvernementale de centre gauche. Au pouvoir depuis 2003, cette coalition est menée par le Parti des travailleurs (PT, gauche), la formation de l’ancien président Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Tous les dirigeants politiques, de la majorité présidentielle et de l'opposition, ont été pris de court par l’extension de la fronde, de São Paulo à une douzaine de villes. La présidente Dilma Rousseff (PT) a réagi avec retard, mais avec sagesse, mardi 18 juin, contrairement à son ministre des sports, Aldo Rebelo (ministre de tutelle du Mondial de 2014).

Ce dernier est un cas désespéré : il appartient au Parti communiste du Brésil (PCdoB), qui regroupe les anciens maoïstes et soutient la Corée du Nord, et s’était fait connaître en voulant purger la langue portugaise de tous les mots d’origine étrangère.

La responsabilité politique de la répression disproportionnée des manifestations incombe à la fois à des élus de la majorité (à Brasilia) et de l’opposition (Parti de la social-démocratie brésilienne, PSDB, à São Paulo). La contestation est néanmoins une surprise douloureuse pour le PT, qui croyait détenir le monopole de la représentation politique des mouvements sociaux.

La déception de la gauche

Une jeune blogueuse liste les motifs de déception de la gauche à l’égard du PT :

1) La corruption, une "tache pour un parti qui s’était construit sur un discours éthique". "Il n’y a pas eu d’autocritique du PT, ni même de réflexion d’ensemble, juste des critiques aux médias et à la Cour suprême."

2) Les droits de l’homme : la Commission parlementaire abandonnée à un pasteur homophobe, ainsi que la première réaction face à la répression des manifestants. La blogueuse aurait pu ajouter l’attitude ambigüe de la diplomatie brésilienne.

3) La réforme agraire : l’agrobusiness privilégié au détriment des sans-terre.

4) Les droits LGBT sacrifiés sur l’autel des concessions aux évangéliques : « Le pouvoir a rendu le PT craintif. »

5) Les Indiens, très minoritaires, mais à forte portée symbolique.

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La liste aurait pu aisément être élargie. Mais elle pourrait également être résumée ainsi : le PT s’est converti au réformisme, sans pour autant mettre en œuvre des réformes dignes de ce nom. Même pas la réforme qui figurait en tête des revendications des syndicalistes comme Lula sous la dictature militaire : l’abolition de l’"impôt syndical" (prélevé sur le salaire) et la réforme de la législation du travail copiée de la Carta del lavoro de Mussolini (le Brésilien Getulio Vargas et l’Argentin Juan Peron avaient puisé à la même source).

Fragmentation politique et polarisation

Traumatisé par la scission de l'extrême gauche du PT provoquée par la miniréforme de la Sécurité sociale, en 2003, le président Lula a renoncé à tout changement en profondeur. Ni réforme fiscale, ni réforme éducative, ni réforme politique.

Le Brésil compte 28 partis politiques, presque tous invertébrés, simples structures pour capter les prébendes de l’Etat. La moitié de ces formations est au gouvernement, l’autre moitié dans l’opposition. Les deux camps ont formé des alliances opportunistes, autour de deux partis réformateurs, le PT et le PSDB, irréconciliables uniquement parce qu’ils partagent le même terrain électoral d’origine, São Paulo. A l'élection présidentielle de 2010, la candidate verte Marina Silva, qui avait créé la surprise en obtenant 20 millions de voix, avait critiqué cette polarisation, qui verrouille le champ politique.

L’opposition n’a pas de projet alternatif. Et son principal candidat, Aécio Neves, le gouverneur PSDB du Minas Gerais, traîne des casseroles : difficile d’être assidu des nuits de Rio de Janeiro, sans prêter le flanc à une campagne de discrédit.

Peu de jours avant l’explosion sociale, le maire de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad (PT), et le gouverneur de l’Etat, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), faisaient cause commune à Paris pour revendiquer l’organisation de l’Exposition universelle de 2020 dans la capitale économique du Brésil. Ils voulaient prolonger ainsi le Mondial de 2014 et les Jeux olympiques de 2016, censés accélérer la construction des infrastructures dont le pays manque cruellement. C’est en quelque sorte toujours le "modèle Brasilia", le développement basé sur le bâtiment et les travaux publics, plus l’industrie. Le BTP reste le noyau dur de la corruption politique.

Des candidatures dissidentes

La crise sociale et les goulets d’étranglement de l’économie vont accentuer les tensions au sein de la coalition gouvernementale, avec des candidatures dissidentes à la présidence et dans les Etats fédérés. Deux noms se détachent du lot :

Eduardo Campos, le gouverneur du Pernambouc, petit-fils de Miguel Arraes, grande figure du Nordeste, est le champion du Parti socialiste brésilien (PSB), représenté au gouvernement.

Son handicap est son insuffisante notoriété dans le Sud. Toutefois, son implantation au Nordeste, un important réservoir de voix de Lula et de Dilma Rousseff, suffit à susciter un vent de panique à Brasilia.

Marina Silva est davantage connue à l’échelle nationale. Elle avait réussi une percée dans le Sud en 2010, mais elle manque de structure organisationnelle. Ancienne ministre de l’environnement de Lula, elle est à juste titre perçue comme une dissidente de la coalition au pouvoir.

Ces deux candidatures ont plus de chances qu’un éventuel représentant de l’extrême gauche qui voudrait prendre le relais des manifestations de la rue. En tout cas, elles pourraient obliger Dilma Rousseff à disputer un second tour de scrutin, avec les risques que cela comporte.

L’immense popularité de la présidente résistera-t-elle à l’explosion des mécontentements ? Aura-t-elle la capacité de reprendre les choses en main ? Jusqu’à présent, sur le plan

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national comme à l’étranger, elle s’est montrée plus gestionnaire que politique ou diplomate. La nouvelle classe moyenne, insatisfaite de la médiocrité des services publics, se tournera-t-elle vers d’autres représentants ? En tout cas, la fronde a rendu le jeu électoral plus ouvert, sans qu’il soit possible de faire des pronostics.

CÚPULA DO G-8/SÍRIA

Le Monde (França) – La Suisse et l'Autriche pourraient bientôt figurer sur la liste noire des paradis fiscaux Lough Erne (Irlande du Nord) Envoyée spéciale

Paris s'apprête à modifier les critères de constitution de cette liste publiée chaque année

La France s'apprête à changer les critères qu'elle utilise pour constituer la liste noire des paradis fiscaux qu'elle publie chaque année. Demain, pourraient y figurer des pays comme la Suisse ou l'Autriche.

Aujourd'hui, cette liste est établie à partir des pays qui ne coopèrent pas assez lors de demandes d'entraide pour des enquêtes fiscales sur des contribuables français. On y trouve surtout des petits pays, comme Brunei, les îles Marshall, Montserrat, Nauru, Niue, le Botswana et le Guatemala. De ce point de vue, la liste noire version 2013 que s'apprête à publier Paris ne devrait pas encore marquer de rupture. Elle comprendra une dizaine de noms, parmi lesquels sept Etats ou territoires déjà fichés en 2012. Les Philippines, qui figuraient aussi sur la liste noire de 2012, mais ont amélioré depuis leur convention fiscale avec la France, devraient se voir cette année " blanchies ". Quant aux autres pays épinglés par la France, dont les noms ont été proposés par le ministère des finances, ils sont encore à l'arbitrage au ministère des affaires étrangères. Le fichage sur liste noire est une affaire délicate à mener sur le plan diplomatique. Il entraîne des sanctions fiscales, caractérisées par un alourdissement des taxes sur tous les flux entrants et sortants de ces pays. Une validation interministérielle est nécessaire.

Echange automatiqueSelon nos sources, aucun grand pays ne devrait se retrouver sur la liste noire française de 2013, attendue dans quelques jours. Pas plus le Luxembourg que la Suisse ou l'Autriche, pourtant pointés du doigt pour leur refus ou leur réticence à mettre fin à un secret bancaire qui a fait leur prospérité.

Mais le soulagement que pourraient éprouver ces places financières devrait être de courte durée... En effet, sitôt cette liste 2013 publiée, la France a l'intention, pour tenir compte des évolutions internationales, de durcir les critères qui servent à évaluer la qualité de la coopération fiscale de ses partenaires. Et d'y ajouter ainsi le désormais fameux critère d'échange automatique de données fiscales entre pays (sur les ouvertures de comptes, les avoirs divers détenus à l'étranger par leurs ressortissants), que le G8 de Lough Erne des 17 et 18 juin en Irlande du Nord vient d'ériger au rang de priorité, en réaffirmant son rôle-clé pour la lutte contre la fraude fiscale...

Si ce critère était en vigueur, la Suisse et l'Autriche, qui ne se sont pas encore engagées à passer à l'échange automatique, se retrouveraient notamment sur la liste noire de la France ! Une perspective dont aucun pays ne voudrait... Ce projet de durcissement de ton vis-à-vis des paradis fiscaux est porté par le ministre des finances, Pierre Moscovici. Celui-ci entend présenter un amendement en ce sens au projet de loi contre la fraude fiscale, en cours d'examen au Parlement. C'est une initiative inédite. L'objectif du locataire de Bercy est de faire jouer à la France un rôle d'aiguillon, pour accélérer le mouvement de bascule mondiale vers l'échange automatique de données, un mode de coopération jugé bien plus efficace par l'Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) que l'échange à la demande (en cas d'enquêtes) pratiqué aujourd'hui.

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Grace à l'effet dissuasif de la liste noire, Paris entend soutenir ce mouvement parti des Etats-Unis avec la loi Fatca (une nouvelle loi américaine extraterritoriale, par laquelle Washington oblige le reste du monde à faire de l'échange automatique de données).

Pour ne pas figurer sur la liste noire de la France, ou en sortir, un Etat n'aura d'autre choix que d'accepter l'échange automatique. Déjà, dix-sept pays s'y sont ralliés, dont, en sus des Etats-Unis, la France, l'Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni, l'Italie et l'Espagne.

Comme l'Union européenne, la France considère par ailleurs qu'elle est en droit d'obtenir des autres pays autant que ce qu'ils accordent aux Etats-Unis à travers la loi Fatca. " L'amendement Moscovici " devrait être appliqué dès 2016.

Anne Michel

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – US and Russia find common ground on Syrian conflictGeoff Dyer

Frosty does not quite describe the looks on their faces. When Barack Obama met Vladimir Putin this week, they attempted jokes about judo and basketball, but the body language screamed of difficult, awkward conversations.

The two leaders spoke at length about Syria, where they are now lurching towards a new proxy war. In a storyline that seems familiar, the Russians are supplying advanced weaponry to the government, while the Central Intelligence Agency is organising an operation to funnel arms to the parts of the opposition it hopes are "moderates".

At the G8 discussions on Syria, Mr Putin was only too happy to be seen standing up to the western leaders pushing him to drop the Assad regime. Some observers in Washington fear the emergence of a Russia-Iran axis in the Middle East. Stephen Cohen, the New York University Russia expert, even warns of a "new cold war".

Certainly, at the rhetorical level, relations have gone from bad to worse in recent months.

Mr Putin seems never to tire of launching barbs at the US. In an interview last week, he talked about "substantial ethnic cleansing" in the early history of the American republic, discussed 20th-century racism and criticised the dropping of nuclear bombs on Japan.The US Congress last year passed the Magnitsky Act, which placed sanctions on the Russian officials accused of involvement in the death of whistleblower lawyer Sergei Magnitsky.

Behind the scenes, however, there are signs of a more workmanlike relationship. US officials say Russia has been co-operative with the war effort in Afghanistan and over Iran's nuclear programme. The two governments signed an agreement on Monday to set up a channel about cybersecurity incidents that threaten national security – the sort of cyber "hot line" Washington has been trying without success to establish with China.

One senior US official goes so far as to say that "we really do not have any substantial clash in interests".

Even with the emerging proxy war in Syria, the two governments are coming to think about the conflict in similar ways

At first, US and Russian attitudes divided into predictable positions – Moscow wanted to block any outside interference, while Washington saw a protest movement calling for political reform that was brutally suppressed.

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Yet as the conflict has become more complex, more areas of common ground have opened up.

Russia has not backed away from its support for the Assad regime, but the break-up of the country into ethnic enclaves is not in Moscow's interests.

The Obama administration has also shifted, from hoping that the Assad regime would fall, to being much more concerned about the possible fragmentation of the country. It is also unclear which group the US now dislikes more – the Assad regime or the al-Qaeda sympathisers within the opposition. Even though many observers believe it is already too late, both governments say they are trying to preserve Syria as a unitary state.

As a result, America's strategy is still squarely focused on Moscow, even as it starts to wade deeper into the conflict on the opposing side.

In the run-up to the Obama-Putin meetings this week, US officials delivered assurances to Moscow that its interests in the Middle East would be preserved, including its port access to the Mediterranean, and that it could have a large role in the process of choosing a post-Assad leadership.

Arming the rebels does not immediately change the underlying approach. The US is not providing the sorts of weapons that would give the opposition a chance of winning the war. By sticking with light arms, the US appears intent, instead, on trying to halt the momentum of the government forces. A stalemate, so the argument goes, would lead Russia to press the Assad regime to enter genuine negotiations.

Mr Obama and Mr Putin are likely to have many more frosty meetings in the coming years. But the US president is still betting heavily that he can work with the Russians.

The Guardian (Reino Unido) – Syria crisis needs political solution, David Cameron tells MPsPatrick Wintour

David Cameron has said he will not recklessly take Britain into a military escalation in Syria, putting his strongest emphasis yet on a political solution to the crisis as he came under pressure from his own backbenchers and Labour not to supply weapons to the Syrian rebels.

Cameron was reporting back to the Commons from the G8 summit in Loch Erne on Syria and agreements to attack corporate tax evasion, which he claimed were now "written into the DNA of future G8 summits for many years to come".

In exchanges lasting nearly 90 minutes, Cameron rejected a role for Iran at a Syrian peace conference and refused to rule out providing arms to the rebels before that peace conference.

But he told MPs: "There is no military victory to be won and all our efforts must be focused on the ultimate goal of a political solution.

"We will not take any major actions without first coming to this House, but we cannot simply ignore this continuing slaughter."

He added that there was a danger in Britain accepting the argument put forward by the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, that the only alternatives to his rule were extremism and terrorism.

He acknowledged there were extremists in the Syrian opposition, saying they posed a threat to the west, but he said the west should stand for democracy and freedom.

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He said the immediate task in Syria was for the Americans and Russians to sort out the delegations that would attend the peace conference. He again insisted Assad could have no future role, and said the summit had managed to persuade Russia not to draw back from its support for a transitional government with full executive powers.

The G8 summit communique made no mention of Assad's future role, due to disagreements between the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the west, but Britain privately believes he is not totally committed to Assad and instead wants to ensure that Syria does not become an ungoverned space.

The prime minister claimed the G8 summit had made progress on Syria by reaffirming its commitment to a peace conference and by requiring Assad to give UN weapons inspectors unrestricted access to establish the facts on the use of chemical weapons by regime forces or anyone else.

Cameron rejected Iran's involvement, saying the country had never accepted the principle of a transitional government in Syria, and adding that he wanted to limit the conference to key players within Syria.

Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, claimed the summit had failed to achieve Cameron's stated objective of providing "a moment of clarity".

Labour's former Northern Ireland secretary Peter Hain urged Cameron not to set preconditions about Assad's involvement. "In a search for a political solution, can I just caution him in his apparent insistence on a precondition. Northern Ireland shows preconditions do not work," Hain said.

"We both share exactly the same view of the hideous nature of Assad's barbarism, but if you're insisting that he can't come to the conference and that he can't play any subsequent role, I just caution him that this conference may never happen."

The prime minister told MPs that 30 jurisdictions had now signed agreements on an automatic exchange of information over tax evasion. He claimed Britain's overseas territories and Crown dependencies had made decisions that would realise an extra £1bn in revenues for the Treasury. He also claimed that every member of the G8 had committed to action plans that would introduce central registries on benefical ownership.

"This agenda has now, I believe, been written into the DNA of the G8 and G20 summits, I hope for many years to come," he said.

Asked if Britain backed public registries of companies' beneficial ownership, or registries open only to tax authorities, he said: "There are strong arguments for it to be public."

But he added: "The point at which one says one's own registry will be public, one gives up rather a lot of leverage over other countries we might want to encourage to do that at the same time".

He also said: "It is important to take the business community that believes in responsible behaviour with us on this journey of greater transparency and fairness. To be fair, the CBI has been supportive of this agenda, so there is nothing to fear from a consultation where we try to take people with us on this important progress."

But he insisted he had managed to make the issue of corporate taxation a mainstream issue on the agenda of future G8 meetings.

"Frankly, tax transparency and beneficial ownership were academic issues that were discussed in lofty academic circles, but they are now kitchen table issues that are being discussed by the G8 leaders, who have pledged to take action on them".

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El País (Espanha) – Las conversaciones de Ginebra son clave para Siria (Opinião/Javier Solana)Un compromiso militar por parte de Occidente provocará una escalada mayor de todas las partes implicadas.

Se ha tardado casi un año en desempolvar el comunicado de Ginebra sobre Siria de junio de 2012 y en conceder un nuevo intento a la diplomacia. El acuerdo del mes pasado entre el secretario de Estado, John Kerry, y el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Rusia, Serguei Lavrov, para poner en marcha un nuevo proceso político, Ginebra II, significa una importante oportunidad. Una oportunidad que, sometida a una intensa presión, está ya languideciendo.

Pero después de dos años de destrucción y de 80.000 muertes, y tras el anuncio de la Casa Blanca del uso de armas químicas por parte del régimen de Al Asad, es precisamente esa audaz y ambiciosa estrategia política, en vez de la acción militar, la que todavía ofrece la mejor –y quizá la única—oportunidad de evitar un sufrimiento, una radicalización y una implosión regional aún mayores.

Para tener éxito, Occidente tiene que reforzar urgentemente su capacidad de maniobra diplomática y hacer del final del conflicto una prioridad, por encima de ambiciones políticas más amplias. Lo que llevará implícita una real búsqueda de acuerdos para asegurarse de que todos los actores principales, internacionales y regionales, tengan una participación suficiente en el proceso para poder respaldarlo plenamente, y así presionar a sus aliados en Siria para que hagan lo mismo. Será preciso llegar a compromisos desagradables, en particular el de aceptar que el destino de Bachar el Asad sea más un asunto a tratar que una condición previa al proceso de transición y que Irán tiene que desempeñar un papel en cualquier proceso diplomático al respecto. En beneficio de los intereses de Siria, de los de toda la región y de la seguridad occidental, ese debería ser ahora el imperativo estratégico.

Las voces de Occidente en favor de una solución militar, ya se trate del establecimiento de zonas de exclusión aérea, del suministro directo de armas a los rebeldes sirios o de operaciones militares contra objetivos gubernamentales, se han hecho cada vez más insistentes. Se argumenta que ese será el único modo de inclinar la balanza contra Asad y de obligarle o bien a hacer concesiones significativas, o bien a la capitulación.

La reciente decisión de Rusia de proporcionar al régimen nuevos misiles antiaéreos y cazas MIG ha sido una predecible respuesta al final del embargo de armas por parte de Europa y al creciente apoyo de círculos gubernamentales franceses y británicos a un suministro de armamento a los rebeldes.

En vez de garantizar un espacio humanitario y de impulsar una transición política, un compromiso militar en Siria por parte de Occidente probablemente provocará una mayor escalada de todas las partes implicadas. La entrada de Hezbolá en el conflicto rompe la balanza a favor de uno de los bandos (el del régimen), profundizando y agravando la guerra civil. La idea de que Occidente puede dotar de poder y controlar a distancia a las fuerzas moderadas es, en el mejor de los casos, optimista. La escalada engendra escalada, y la paulatina expansión de la misión es un resultado predecible si Occidente emprende la senda militar.

La oposición siria y sus partidarios en la región interpretarán el apoyo militar occidental como la señal de que funciona su ya vieja estrategia de atraer a Occidente para alcanzar una victoria total, con la consecuencia de que se verán menos inclinados aún a involucrarse políticamente y abandonar el maximalismo.

En ese contexto, ha llegado el momento de un verdadero –y hasta ahora no probado—impulso político por parte de los actores occidentales. Mientras se sostenga el argumento de que la oposición primero necesita fortalecerse, nunca habrá un momento ideal de cambiar del camino de luchar al de hablar, y mientras tanto la devastación continúa.

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Esa es la razón por la que participar en Ginebra II y hacer que funcione –aunque sea gradualmente y al principio de forma titubeante—tiene que convertirse en el primer asunto que abordar. Como sostiene un reciente informe del Consejo Europeo para las Relaciones Exteriores: Siria. El imperativo de poner freno a la escalada, el consenso internacional es un absoluto prerrequisito para atraer a las partes enfrentadas hacia un espacio en el que las negociaciones políticas puedan imponerse. De tal manera que no puede haber condiciones previas en las conversaciones y todas las partes tienen que ser invitadas a la mesa, incluido Irán si también se va a presionar a Asad. Ese informe sugiere que la agenda para Ginebra II debería derivarse del comunicado de Ginebra acordado hace ya un año, y centrarse en una transición política pactada, preservando la integridad territorial de Siria, el acceso a la asistencia humanitaria y aplacar la violencia y una mayor militarización.

A los aliados de Occidente en el Golfo y Turquía, que respaldan a la oposición, solamente se les convencerá si norteamericanos y europeos abogan por una inequívoca opción por Ginebra II, en vez de cubrirse diversificando sus apuestas. El presidente Obama necesitará comprometerse personalmente con Ginebra II y hacer de ello una prioridad en su reunión con el presidente Vladimir Putin en el marco del G-8 a finales de este mes.

Un acuerdo internacional marcaría un decisivo retorno a la escena de la política. Mientras nadie espera que el conflicto termine pronto –Siria está demasiado polarizada e inundada de armas—un genuino compromiso internacional a favor del desarrollo de un proceso político marcaría un cambio de trayectoria. Dada la creciente dependencia política, militar y financiera de apoyos externos por las dos partes, la presión internacional conjunta que incite a ambas a un acuerdo de reparto del poder representa la mejor estrategia para que finalmente se pueda poner término a la lucha. Supondrá dar un paso decisivo hacia el enfriamiento de las ambiciones absolutistas de las partes enfrentadas, aumentando el incentivo para hacer un trato, especialmente a medida que se implanta la fatiga por el conflicto.

Dado el ciclo de intensificación en curso, avivado por los anuncios de nuevas provisiones de armamento, las restricciones acerca de qué países pueden tomar parte en las conversaciones, y las precondiciones deseadas, Ginebra II está ya contra las cuerdas. Estados Unidos y Europa necesitan actuar urgentemente para invertir esa tendencia. La triste alternativa es la de una escalada respaldada internacionalmente que puede dejar a Siria y a la región en un estado de ruina permanente, cuyo desbordamiento tendría probablemente unos efectos mucho más próximos a nosotros.

ESTADOS UNIDOS/DESARMAMENTO NUCLEAR

The New York Times (EUA) – Obama Readying Emissions Limits on Power Plants (Capa)By JOHN M. BRODER

President Obama is preparing regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, senior officials said Wednesday. The move would be the most consequential climate policy step he could take and one likely to provoke legal challenges from Republicans and some industries.

Electric power plants are the largest single source of global warming pollution in the country, responsible for nearly 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. With sweeping climate legislation effectively dead in Congress, the decision on existing power plants — which a 2007 Supreme Court decision gave to the executive branch — has been among the most closely watched of Mr. Obama’s second term.

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The administration has already begun steps to restrict climate-altering emissions from any newly built power plants, but imposing carbon standards on the existing utility fleet would be vastly more costly and contentious.

The president is preparing to move soon because rules as complex as those applying to power plants can take years to complete. Experts say that if Mr. Obama hopes to have a new set of greenhouse gas standards for utilities in place before he leaves office he needs to begin before the end of this year.

Heather Zichal, the White House coordinator for energy and climate change, said Wednesday that the president would announce climate policy initiatives in coming weeks. Another official said a presidential address outlining the new policy, which will also include new initiatives on renewable power and energy efficiency, could come as early as next week.

Ms. Zichal said none of the initiatives being considered by the administration required legislative action or new financing from Congress.

In a speech in Berlin on Wednesday, Mr. Obama echoed his assertive talk on climate policy since his re-election, talk that some climate advocates have criticized as going beyond his actions. He said the United States and the world had a moral imperative to take “bold action” to slow the warming of the planet.

“The grim alternative affects all nations — more severe storms, more famine and floods, new waves of refugees, coastlines that vanish, oceans that rise,” Mr. Obama said. “This is the global threat of our time.”

He added, “We have to get to work.”

Republicans criticize Mr. Obama’s climate policy as government overreach that is holding back the economy. Some Democrats, including those hawkish about climate action, also worry that tough new standards on power plants could slow job growth and raise energy costs, particularly in places like the industrial Midwest that depend on cheap power from coal.

But administration officials signaled that Mr. Obama had decided the risks from climate change outweighed the potential economic and political costs from taking steps to address it.

“He is serious about making it a second-term priority,” Ms. Zichal said at a forum Wednesday in Washington sponsored by The New Republic magazine. “He knows this is a legacy issue.”

Ms. Zichal suggested that a central part of the administration’s approach to dealing with climate change would be to use the authority given to the Environmental Protection Agency to address climate-altering pollutants from power plants under the Clean Air Act.

“The E.P.A. has been working very hard on rules that focus specifically on greenhouse gases from the coal sector,” she said. “They’re doing a lot of important work in that space.”

She did not specifically mention standards for existing power plants, but other senior officials have said in recent days that Mr. Obama has decided to start work on such regulations.

A 2007 Supreme Court decision gave the E.P.A. authority to regulate greenhouse gases, and it has already done so for vehicles. Environmental advocates said that addressing power plant pollution must be the centerpiece of any serious climate policy.

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“To paraphrase Joe Biden, this is a big deal,” said Daniel F. Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, an advocacy organization. “Nothing he can do will cut greenhouse gases more.”

Last year, the E.P.A. proposed greenhouse gas regulations for new power plants that would essentially ban the construction of any additional coal-fired plants. The administration was required to complete that regulation by mid-April, but it missed the deadline in a sign of the pitfalls of such complex rule making. The E.P.A. has not said when it expects to complete the rules.

The timing of the new policy on existing power plants is driven in large part by the timetables the Clean Air Act sets for a major rule-making. The law requires the agency to publish proposed guidelines. States are then required to submit plans for meeting the guidelines, which the agency must review and which the public must be allowed time to comment on.

“All of that takes time, and we’re in a race against time,” said Vickie Patton, general counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund.

Regulation of existing power plants is further complicated by the pending nomination of Gina McCarthy to become E.P.A. administrator. Ms. McCarthy has for the past four years run the agency’s office responsible for enforcing the Clean Air Act.

Senate Republicans are holding up her nomination over unrelated issues. Republicans and industry leaders also worry about her intentions on power plant regulation. In a carefully worded statement, she told committee members during her confirmation proceedings that the agency “is not currently developing” any such regulations.

The administration has been quietly stitching together a suite of global warming policy measures for the president to unveil this summer to make good on promises in his election night acceptance speech, his second Inaugural address and his State of the Union address.

Denis McDonough, the White House chief of staff, and his deputy, Rob Nabors, have regularly met with cabinet secretaries and their deputies to adapt to a changing climate and to propose new measures that do not require Congressional action.

Mr. Obama’s coming speech is also expected to highlight measures that the Department of Energy can take to make appliances and industrial equipment more efficient and to reduce the energy wasted in public and private buildings.

Le Figaro (França) – Le faible écho de la doctrine antinucléaire Laure Mandeville

DEPUIS le début de sa présidence, Barack Obama n’a cessé d’évoquer son rêve d’un monde débarrassé de l’atome militaire. Lors de son premier mandat, il a passé beaucoup de temps sur le désarmement nucléaire, persuadé qu’en réduisant ses propres arsenaux stratégiques, de pair avec Moscou, l’Amérique serait en meilleure position pour mener la bataille de la non-prolifération face à l’Iran ou à la Corée du Nord.

C’est la raison pour laquelle le président américain a centré l’essentiel de sa relation avec la Russie sur la signature d’un nouveau traité Start introduisant le plafond stratégique de 1 500 têtes de missiles et 800 lanceurs (terrestres, aériens ou sous-marins) en 2010, accord ratifié par le Congrès au terme d’un vif débat. Obama a organisé la même année à Washington un grand sommet sur la sécurité nucléaire, arrachant aux participants une promesse de sécurisation de leurs matières fissiles pour empêcher armes de destruction massives et matériaux sensibles de tomber entre les mains de terroristes.

Un acquis que le président entend consolider, a-t-il signifié ce mercredi dans son discours à la porte de Brandebourg, en appelant Moscou à réduire à nouveau d’un tiers ses stocks

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d’armes nucléaires pour parvenir à un arsenal de 1 000 têtes. Obama a aussi appelé le Sénat américain à adopter le traité sur l’interdiction des essais atomiques. La posture nucléaire de l’Administration vise à « réduire le rôle des armes nucléaires dans notre stratégie de sécurité », a affirmé la Maison-Blanche mercredi, garantissant le maintien « d’une force de dissuasion crédible ».

Barack Obama court toutefois le risque d’apparaître comme un doux rêveur. Il n’avait pas encore prononcé son discours que Vladimir Poutine émettait déjà ses doutes sur de nouvelles réductions des arsenaux, soulignant, par la voix d’un conseiller, que toute conversation sur le sujet devrait « impliquer les autres puissances nucléaires ».

Loin d’être séduit par les appels d’Obama à abandonner la mentalité de la guerre froide, le président russe a noté que son pays consacrerait une part importante de son budget militaire à la mise en place d’un système de défense antiaérienne et spatiale, « pour prévenir toute rupture de l’équilibre stratégique », soulignant ses réserves sur le système de défense antimissile mis en place par les États-Unis et leurs alliés européens.

On voit mal pourquoi Poutine accepterait aujourd’hui de faire plaisir à Obama, avec lequel il vient d’avoir une altercation frontale sur le dossier syrien. Contrairement à 2009, où le « redémarrage » (reset) de la relation russo-américaine avait du sens à Moscou, Poutine voit désormais son homologue américain comme un chef d’État renâclant à s’engager à l’extérieur et affaibli par la paralysie politique américaine. Il est également peu probable que le Congrès accepte de voter le traité d’interdiction des essais nucléaires, vu les oppositions républicaines.

Reste la question, cruciale, de l’Iran. Obama envoie-t-il un message à Téhéran, dans l’espoir que la nouvelle configuration du pouvoir iranien ouvre une ère de dialogue sérieux sur l’atome ? Il faut reconnaître que jusqu’ici, ses efforts de désarmement n’ont pas été probants. Depuis son arrivée aux affaires, la Corée du Nord a mené deux tirs d’essais nucléaires et l’Iran a construit 17 000 centrifugeuses. Le Pakistan s’apprête à déployer une nouvelle génération d’armes nucléaires tactiques, que Washington craint de voir de tomber aux mains de terroristes.

Reuters (Reino Unido) – France to maintain nuclear arsenal after Obama callFrance is not ready to reduce its nuclear arsenal for now, Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Thursday, a day after U.S. President Barack Obama offered to cut deployed weapons as part of a global push to lower stockpiles.

Speaking in Berlin, Obama urged Russia to help build on the "New START" treaty that requires both countries to cut stockpiles of deployed nuclear weapons to 1,550 each by 2018.

"Barack Obama is proposing to Russia that together they reduce. That's fine but that is not how we see things," Le Drian told France Info radio, saying France had already narrowed its arsenal to just under 300 warheads.

"The real issue is nuclear proliferation ... it's the future risk of Iran getting a nuclear weapon," he added.

Moscow gave Obama's call for a cut in deployed arsenals of one third a frosty reaction, saying it could not take such proposals seriously while Washington was beefing up its own anti-missile defences.

Obama's vision of a "world without nuclear weapons" set out in a speech in Prague in 2009, three months into his presidency, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize. But his mixed results so far have fuelled criticism that the prize may have been premature.

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(Reporting by Emmanuel Jarry; writing by Mark John; editing by Catherine Bremer)

El País (Espanha) – Rusia replica que el desarme debe incluir el escudo antimisilesPILAR BONET

Putin advierte de que no permitirá “que se altere el equilibrio del sistema de contención nuclear".

Rusia no se toma en serio la propuesta de desarme nuclear del presidente Barak Obama en tanto EEUU mantenga sus planes para desarrollar un escudo de defensa antimisiles. Moscú vincula el desarme nuclear con el cese de este programa y, aunque está de acuerdo en la necesidad de reducir los arsenales nucleares estratégicos, considera que los recortes deben ser compartidos por todos los países poseedores de armas atómicas.

En San Petersburgo, donde mantenía una reunión dedicada a suministros bélicos, el presidente Vladímir Putin manifestó que Rusia no permitirá “que se altere el equilibrio del sistema de contención nuclear y que disminuya la eficacia nuestras fuerzas nucleares”. Por su parte, el asesor presidencial en política internacional, Yuri Ushakov, manifestó que el potencial nuclear debe reducirse no solo en Rusia y EEUU, sino también en otros países con armas nucleares.

Más lejos en sus críticas fue el viceprimer ministro ruso, Dmitri Rogozin, según el cual Obama “o miente” o “evidencia una profunda falta de profesionalidad”. “¿Cómo se puede desarrollar un sistema de defensa antimisiles, capaz de interceptar el potencial nuclear de otro país y plantear simultáneamente una reducción del potencial nuclear estratégico?”, inquirió Rogozin. El político señaló que la instalación de elementos de defensa antimisiles en Polonia prevista para 2018 no concuerda con la versión oficial norteamericana sobre el peligro representado por Irán.

EEUU y la OTAN no pueden hoy neutralizar totalmente el potencial nuclear ruso, dijo Rogozin. “¿Pero qué pasará mañana si nos desarmamos a la ligera, como lo hicieron ya en época de [Mijail] Gorbachov?”, señaló el viceprimer ministro. Es evidente que los dirigentes rusos no pueden “tomar en serio” la propuesta norteamericana, señaló.

Diversos expertos militares rusos coinciden en su escepticismo sobre la posibilidad de que Moscú reduzca su potencial nuclear, argumentando que las intenciones norteamericanas de desplegar su defensa antimisiles obligan a Rusia a contrarrestar estos planes y exigen, por lo tanto, un arsenal misilístico suficiente para penetrar el eventual escudo.

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Obama in Berlin (Editorial) The US and Russia are in the throes of a huge disagreement over how to tackle the civil war in Syria. But in his speech at the Brandenburg gate in Berlin, President Barack Obama declared that he still wants to do business with Vladimir Putin on another security issue – the need to reduce the size of their nuclear arsenals.

One of the foreign policy achievements of Mr Obama's first term was a treaty with Russia in allowing each side a maximum of 1,550 strategic warheads. Mr Obama has now announced that he wants to cut that by another third – leaving each country with just over 1,000 weapons.

US-Russia arms control is a subject of limited interest to many people these days. The cold war between Washington and Moscow is over. Military strategists are far more concerned by tensions between the US and China, especially on cyber espionage. Even with 1,000 weapons each, the US and Russia would still have the capability to blow the world up many times over. Still, the ambition spelt out by Mr Obama for more cuts in nuclear weapons does matter for several reasons.

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First, the US and Russia have 95 per cent of the world's nuclear weapons between them. Unless they make further reductions in their arsenals, they will be unable to begin persuading the world's seven other nuclear weapons states to cut their own smaller arsenals. This matters, especially when we consider the alarming speed with which Pakistan is amassing more and more nuclear warheads.

Secondly, by cutting its own arsenal, Washington is in a slightly better position to argue that Iran and North Korea should stay out of the nuclear weapons game. In a week in which a more moderate Iranian leader has been elected, the US president's statement that he wants to reduce his own reliance on nuclear weapons even more helps to improve the atmosphere ahead of a new round of talks with Iran.

Thirdly, it is good that Mr Obama and Mr Putin are not allowing differences on Syria to obstruct progress elsewhere. We should not get ahead of ourselves, of course. We do not know if Mr Putin will sign a new treaty on arms reductions or whether he will demand more concessions from the US over its missile defence plans, a thorn in the Kremlin's side. But the Berlin announcement signals that Mr Obama is trying to have a businesslike relationship with Mr Putin even if differences over Syria remain intractable.

IRÃ

The Times (Reino Unido) – Ease sanctions against Iran after election of Hassan Rowhani, says RussiaBen Hoyle, Hugh Tomlinson and Sheera Frenkel

Iran is ready to halt the most advanced stage of its nuclear programme, a sign of goodwill that should persuade the West to relax sanctions against the country, Russia's Foreign Minister said yesterday.

Sergei Lavrov said that "for the first time in many years" there are encouraging signs of progress in the international stand-off over Iran's developing nuclear strength.

Speaking after the surprise election of Hassan Rowhani, the most moderate candidate in the field, as President of Iran at the weekend, Mr Lavrov told a Kuwaiti news agency that Tehran's willingness to suspend its enrichment of uranium to 20 per cent concentration is an important development.

"This could be a breakthrough agreement and to a large extent remove the acuteness of the existing problems," he said, adding that Mr Lavrov added that it would be "inexcusable not to take advantage of this opportunity". He did not say which Iranian officials had broached the offer or when they had made it but he added that "for the first time in many years, hopeful signs have appeared in this process."

Russia has repeatedly championed an easing of sanctions in return for concessions from Tehran and Mr Lavrov emphasised the importance of international negotiators taking "substantial reciprocal steps."

"The international community should respond appropriately to the constructive moves by the Iranian side, including step-by-step halting and cancellation of sanctions — unilateral ones and those enacted by the UN Security Council," he said.

Russia is aligned with Iran in support of Bashar al-Assad's government in the Syrian conflict, and still cultivates ties with Tehran, in contrast to the US and the European Union, which have imposed unilateral sanctions of their own. Although the sanctions initially targeted only the nuclear and defence industries their impact is now being felt by ordinary Iranians.

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The EU and the US were particularly concerned by Iran's admission that it was capable of producing 20 per cent enriched uranium, which experts say could be turned into weapons-grade uranium within months.

Mr Rowhani spent 16 years as secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and served as Iran's lead nuclear negotiator with the international community until he quit the Council when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected President in 2005.

His first press conference as president-elect on Monday was notable for the change in tone from Mr Ahmadinejad's habitual defiance.

While he insisted that Iran would not halt its uranium enrichment altogether, Mr Rowhani did pledge "greater transparency" over the nuclear programme and added that "if we see goodwill we can take some confidence-building measures".

Whether he will be able to fulfil this promise once he takes office is another matter. Iran's key foreign policy priorities, including the nuclear programme and Syria, will remain under the control of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader.

But the cleric is not immune to public opinion altogether and the election result has signalled the Iranian people's weariness of the regime's unyielding defiance on the nuclear issue, which has brought economic misery to millions of households.

Moreover, the election campaign exposed deep rifts among Khamenei loyalists over the country's handling of its stand-off with the West.

During televised debates between the candidates, several men rounded on Saeed Jalili, Iran's nuclear negotiator and a close ally of the Supreme Leader. Mr Jalili was castigated for rejecting an offer earlier this year of modest sanctions relief in exchange for halting uranium enrichment to 20 per cent.

Mr Jalili was for a long time seen as the frontrunner in the election race. But his campaign slogan "Resistance" was rejected by voters and he eventually trailed in a distant third.

Attention will now turn to the team Mr Rowhani assembles around him in government, particularly his choice of Foreign Minister. There is speculation that he may also seek to replace Mr Jalili as Iran's representative at the negotiating table when talks with the West resume in the autumn.

While the West and Russia were cautiously welcoming the possibilities offered by a Rowhani presidency, some Israeli Cabinet ministers expressed concern.

"The election of Rowhani, the supposed moderate, was exactly what all those people who don't want to do anything about the Iranian issue needed," said one Israeli Cabinet minister, who described Mr Rowhani's election as a "harsh blow".

Meir Litvak, head of Iranian studies at Tel Aviv University, told Israel Army Radio that Mr Rowhani's "smiley face to the West" might make it less likely that Israel would receive support for a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – How the west can end the nuclear stand-off with Tehran (Opinião/Ayatollah Seyed Salman Safavi)Hassan Rohani's victory in Iran's presidential elections has resurrected a spirit of hope in the hearts of our people. It is a victory for moderation, intellectualism and good sense. The new president will deliver the kind of all-inclusive government that Iran needs if a new page is to be turned in relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the world.

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This is, first, because the president-elect's approach to foreign policy will be one of constructive co-operation with the aim of reducing tensions. Second, he is uniquely placed to develop a win-win compromise regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions: Mr Rohani won a landslide victory in the popular vote and he has the approval of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.

If the west grasps this opportunity, the nuclear conflict can be settled peacefully, heralding a new era of mutual co-operation between the two sides. A just peace in the Middle East and Gulf can blossom. However, if the west does not comprehend the meaning of this important opportunity, both sides will suffer and sink deeper into the quagmire of distrust and confrontation.

Mr Rohani will seek the removal of the UN Security Council's sanctions as well as the attainment of peaceful nuclear technology. As one who has for many years observed the conflict between the west and Iran over the nuclear issue, and who wishes peace and security for all, I advise the west to seize this new opportunity and not to repeat mistakes of the past. Reaching a constructive compromise depends on five golden rules.

The first is recognition of the fact that although the political, economic and cyber warfare of the west against Iran has inflicted harm and damage on the livelihood of the nation, it has failed either to stop or to reduce the quality or quantity of the peaceful nuclear programme.

The second is that the main topic of discussion should be mechanisms for international observation of Iran's peaceful nuclear programme to prevent any possibility of deviation – not limiting Iran's nuclear rights.

The third is that successful diplomacy, like business, is dependent on "equal value exchange". As such, any compromise should be on the basis that concessions by Iran are matched by concessions by the west.

The fourth is that the exchange should occur at the same time. It is natural that mutual exchange occurs step by step; however, it should be "cash for cash". Any Iranian action should be met by simultaneous western action. The west's policy of asking Iran for something, in return for commitment to the lifting of sanctions at some time in the future, is neither acceptable nor constructive.

Finally the west needs to learn that mutual trust is built through engagement and action. Trust has become a scarce commodity in nuclear negotiations. The road to mutual trust is travelled over time. It can be built and harvested only through actions, compromise and considering the interests of all parties. Trust cannot be built through isolation, silence, intimidation, sanctions, pressure and empty promises.

If the west had compromised with Mr Rohani when he was a nuclear negotiator under the last reformist administration a decade ago, and had not made excessive demands, the nuclear issue could have been settled by now. As a consequence, Mr Rohani would have been president of Iran back in 2005.

Thus, the west should seize the new opportunity presented by the Iranian nation, and should not repeat past mistakes, so that the discourse of "moderation and rationality" can rule Iran's government and society for years to come.

The country of Mr Rohani's era, as the bridge of constructive co-operation between the west and the Islamic world, can bring just and stable peace and security to the Middle East. The goal of Iran is peaceful use of nuclear technology – and Tehran will pursue its right to that under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. According to the fatwa of the supreme leader, the production, storage and use of nuclear weapons is forbidden and a sin against God. The west must now understand the value of Mr Rohani's presidency if a realistic solution to the conflict with Iran over its nuclear capabilities is to be achieved.

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- The writer is an Iranian cleric who has served the leadership

ORIENTE MÉDIO E NORTE DA ÁFRICA

Agência EFE (Espanha) – Ashton reafirma a Abás el apoyo de la UE a esfuerzos para reactivar diálogoEFE

El presidente palestino, Mahmud Abas, recibió hoy en Ramala a la alta representante de Política Exterior y Seguridad Común de la Unión Europea (UE), Catherine Ashton, en una reunión en la que le informó de las últimas conversaciones con EEUU dirigidas a reactivar el proceso de paz.

"Durante la reunión, ambos discutieron los últimos avances en el proceso de paz, y los esfuerzos realizados por el Secretario de Estado de EEUU, John Kerry para reactivarlo", informó la agencia oficial Wafa al concluir la reunión.

Abás, que poco antes había recibido al vicepresidente de Brasil, Michel Temer, incidió en el interés de los palestinos en el éxito de los esfuerzos del secretario de Estado, para llegar a "negociaciones serias" que conduzcan al fin de la ocupación y al establecimiento de un estado palestino independiente con Jerusalén como capital.

También le aseguró a Ashton su determinación en trabajar para "crear las condiciones adecuadas" que permitan el reinicio del diálogo, proceso en el que consideró claves el cese de la construcción en los asentamientos judíos y la liberación de presos palestinos.

La jefa de la diplomacia europea llegó esta tarde a la zona en una gira por varios países de la región para conocer mejor la situación y encontrar soluciones a los problemas ante la falta de avances en el proceso de paz entre palestinos e israelíes, la guerra civil en Siria y la inestabilidad en otros estados.

Ashton, que esta noche se iba a reunir con la ministra israelí de Justicia y jefa de negociaciones, Tzipi Livni, confirmó a Abás el apoyo de la UE a los esfuerzos de Kerry y destacó la firme postura de los Veintisiete.

Mañana jueves, última jornada de su gira por Oriente Medio, Ashton se entrevistará en Jerusalén con el primer ministro israelí, Benjamín Netanyahu.

Después se desplazará a la franja de Gaza, gobernada por el movimiento islamista Hamás, para visitar un colegio de la agencia de las Naciones Unidas para refugiados palestinos (UNRWA, en sus siglas en inglés) junto a su máximo responsable, Filippo Grandi, y la sede una asociación local de sordomudos. EFE

Le Figaro (França) – La nouvelle donne stratégique au Moyen- Orient Pierre Rousselin

En Syrie, en Turquie, en Égypte ou en Iran, les événements se succèdent sans que les pays occidentaux aient la capacité de les orienter. Il va falloir s’habituer à laisser les peuples du Moyen-Orient construire eux-mêmes leur propre destin, en se résignant à n’avoir qu’une très faible influence sur le cours de choses. Ce n’est qu’en choisissant ses priorités avec beaucoup de précautions que l’on pourra préserver des intérêts de plus en plus menacés.

En Turquie, le premier ministre, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, tourne ostensiblement le dos à l’Europe en réprimant la contestation, au mépris de la Convention européenne des droits de l’homme sans s’attirer de condamnations, si ce n’est de la part des dirigeants allemands.

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En Égypte, le président islamiste Morsi s’est doté des pleins pouvoirs pour faire adopter par référendum une Constitution à sa convenance et nomme à Louqsor un gouverneur issu d’un groupe djihadiste, sans que cela suscite la moindre réprobation.

En Iran, les élections portent à la présidence un conservateur qui n’est « modéré » que dans les espoirs des Occidentaux et qui a pour mission de donner un visage acceptable à la République islamique.

Mais c’est le débat sur l’assistance à apporter ou à ne pas apporter à l’insurrection en Syrie qui est l’exemple le plus criant de l’impuissance nouvelle de l’Occident dans la région. Même si, après le recours par le régime aux armes chimiques, Barack Obama promet à l’opposition une aide militaire, le président des États-Unis fera tout pour éviter une nouvelle aventure. Après les traumatismes de l’Irak et de l’Afghanistan et avec la perspective nouvelle d’une indépendance énergétique grâce aux gaz de schiste, l’Amérique ne s’engagera pas pleinement en Syrie ou ailleurs dans la région, là où ses intérêts vitaux ne sont plus en jeu. On peut le regretter, mais il faut en faire le constat et prendre la mesure des conséquences considérables que cela implique.

Ce constat, Vladimir Poutine l’a fait. Le G8 qui vient de se dérouler en Irlande du Nord l’a confirmé. En soutenant Bachar el-Assad, il en profite pour pousser son avantage et maintenir une présence russe en Méditerranée afin de tirer parti du repli américain.

Quant aux Européens, ils sont les premiers concernés. Ce qui se passe dans le monde arabe les affecte bien plus que d’autres puissances plus lointaines. Ils étaient six à participer au G8. Mais aucun ne semble avoir tiré les leçons de la nouvelle donne stratégique.

Sans les États-Unis, leurs moyens militaires sont très limités pour peser sur le cours de la guerre en Syrie, et leurs moyens économiques le sont tout autant pour favoriser une évolution du printemps arabe vers une transition démocratique réussie.

Les précédents de la Libye et du Mali ont montré qu’une intervention militaire n’est possible, là où les États-Unis ne sont pas directement concernés, que si les Européens assument un rôle clé. Il en serait de même pour la Syrie, si Français et Britanniques en avaient la capacité. Mais, cette fois, ce n’est pas le cas.

La levée de l’embargo européen sur les armes à destination de l’opposition syrienne était censée faire pression sur le régime. La manœuvre ne peut réussir, chacun voyant bien qu’une mesure favorisant une victoire des islamistes radicaux ne constitue pas une alternative viable. Si l’assistance militaire aux insurgés syriens reste, en théorie, une option, encore faut-il très bien encadrer les destinataires des armes fournies. Cela impliquerait une forte implication américaine, une robuste coordination internationale.

Au Mali, la France a su fixer des priorités et adopter une stratégie cohérente. Au Moyen-Orient, l’exercice est bien plus délicat.

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Egypt's Morsi tries to shore up popular support ahead of protestBorzou Daragahi

Egypt's tourism minister on Wednesday submitted his resignation over the appointment of a member of an Islamist group accused of launching a terrorist attack in an ancient temple in Luxor to the governorship of the province.

Mohamed Morsi, Islamist president, named Adel al-Khayat, longtime Islamic group leader, to the provincial post as part of what analysts describe as a series of controversial steps meant to shore up popular support ahead of large anti-government protests expected on June 30, the anniversary of Mr Morsi's election.

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But the measures have affected the country's foreign policy, angered Egyptians in the provinces and spooked investors, tourists and religious minorities. Many analysts say that countering the June 30 protests appears to have become a policy priority at a time when Egypt is under tremendous economic pressure.

"They have one issue on the agenda and it is essentially June 30," said Gamal Soltan, a political scientist at the American University of Cairo. "They feel their support among the Islamists is declining and they're certain they're losing the support of Egypt's urban classes."

The build up to the protests began last month when young activists launched a movement called Tamarrod, or Rebellion. It aimed to collect signatures demanding early presidential elections to bring down Mr Morsi, a former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood group, which has dominated Egypt since the uprising.

The campaign caught on quickly and the petition has gathered 15m signatures, stunning political observers as well as campaign organisers. The drive will culminate in the June 30 protests in front of the presidential palace.

After initially ignoring the movement, the government has begun paying attention. A sinking economy and a series of political missteps have damaged the popularity of Mr Morsi and his government. A recent poll by Zogby Research Services showed that support for Mr Morsi's government had dropped to 28 per cent, compared with a high of 57 per cent a year ago.

In an attempt to win back support it has tried to foster nationalist sentiment over an Ethiopian dam project that it said will reduce Egypt's access to Nile water, even threatening military action against Addis Ababa. Egypt's foreign minister visited Ethiopia this week an effort to ease tension.

Mr Morsi and his allies have also appealed to their political base by endorsing religiously motivated Egyptians heading to fight in Syria's sectarian civil war, undermining the government's own longstanding policy of peaceful resolution of the conflict and foreign non-interference.

The president also ordered the immediate closure of the Syrian diplomatic office in Cairo, stranding tens of thousands of recent refugees from Syria and longstanding residents dependent on it for consular services.

"Just like any failing government, it starts to raise religious and sectarian sentiment, calling for jihad and calling any protesters mainly Christians waging war on Islam," said Wael Nawara, a co-founder of the liberal Ghad party and a political activist.

To further bolster his position, Mr Morsi has awarded a series of governorships to mostly Islamist political allies, triggering protests in Daqahlia, Gharbiya, Damietta, Beheira and Beni Suef provinces.

Most controversial was the appointment of Mr Khayat to the governorship of Luxor province. Mr Khayat's organisation, Gamaa al-Islamiya, was accused of staging a 1997 attack on Hatshepsut temple that killed 62 people. Although the group has since renounced violence, the appointment has outraged residents and triggered a resignation offer by Hesham Zazou, the tourism minister, whose spokeswoman told the official Egyptian news agency that he cannot work "as long as the new governor remains in his post, greatly harming tourism in Egypt generally and in Luxor specifically".

After meeting with his conservative Islamist allies this week, Mr Morsi also entrusted the Gamaa al-Islamiya with a counter-campaign to Tamarrod, named Tagarrod or impartiality.

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"We are taking to the streets to make the people aware of the corrupt media that deludes the people in telling them that Morsi has not accomplished anything," said Qaddafi Abdel-Razak, spokesman for the movement

Many liberals and leftists voted for Mr Morsi a year ago, hoping he would govern from the centre. Instead, say analysts, he appears to be moving deeper into the orbit of hardline Islamists who remain the government's sole allies.

"Morsi is trying to consolidate his army," said Mr Nawara. "He's irrational and panicking and he's trying to use all the tools he can to mobilise his brothers-in-arms."

- Additional reporting by Heba Saleh

MERCOSUL

ABC Color (Paraguai) – El gran obstáculo del Mercosur es Argentina, aseguran en Brasil La presidenta de la Confederación Nacional de Agricultura de Brasil, senadora Katia Abreu, dijo ayer que uno de los “grandes obstáculos” que afectan al Mercosur es de índole político y tiene como origen Argentina, un país “extremadamente proteccionista”. “Cómo vamos a abrir el mercado si uno lo quiere cerrar y poner impuestos a las importaciones”, sostuvo la legisladora brasileña.EFE

La industria agropecuaria brasileña pidió en la víspera en la capital belga avanzar hacia un acuerdo bilateral ambicioso con la Unión Europea (UE) en lugar de hacerlo en el marco del Mercosur, señaló la presidenta de la Confederación Nacional de Agricultura (CNA) de Brasil, la senadora Katia Abreu.

La representante del sector agrícola brasileño aseguró que están “ansiosos” por lograr un acuerdo que sea “bueno para las dos partes, sea Brasil o Mercosur”, que conforman además Argentina, Uruguay y Venezuela, mientras que Paraguay continúa suspendido desde hace casi un año.

En cambio, reconoció que “hoy el Mercosur es un obstáculo”, y que sería necesario cambiar algunas de sus prácticas para conseguir el acuerdo lo suficientemente amplio que pide la industria agraria.

En referencia a Argentina, Abreu pidió “pragmatismo” y “no impedir el trabajo de los otros” . En segundo lugar, consideró que algunos sectores industriales se resistían al acuerdo ante la competitividad de los europeos, aunque ahora cree que “las cosas están mejorando” y que no hay razón para mantener un rechazo.

“Hay productos brasileños más competitivos. Los consumidores piden fiabilidad, pero también productos más baratos” , indicó, y descartó que las subvenciones a la agricultura europea sean un problema principal en la negociación.

Abreu inauguró ayer la primera oficina de la CNA en Bruselas con los objetivos principales de consolidar y aumentar la cuota de mercado de los productos agrarios brasileños en la UE y promover más los acuerdos entre las dos partes en ese sector.

La senadora puso de relieve que los consumidores europeos buscan productos con un precio razonable a la vez que de calidad, fiables y seguros, por lo que vio importante que haya una representación en Bruselas del sector brasileño.

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La CNA, que está formada por 27 federaciones estatales y más de 2.100 sindicatos, abrió ya una oficina en Pekín en noviembre pasado con la idea de diseñar una estrategia de comercialización que, con base en alianzas, lleve a los productos brasileños.

El Comercio (Equador) – Ecuador solicitó proceso de negociación para ser miembro de Mercosur Ecuador ha solicitado formalmente a Mercosur el inicio de negociaciones para convertirse en miembro pleno del bloque regional, señaló el flamante ministro de Comercio Exterior, Francisco Rivadeneira, a la agencia de noticias Andes.

“El presidente (Rafael Correa) nos ha instruido que quiere que avancemos en un proceso de negociación con Mercosur para ver la posibilidad de adherirse como miembro pleno.

Vamos a cumplir estrictamente las instrucciones del presidente y es más, ya hemos enviado una comunicación estipulando lo que acabo de decir a la presidencia de Mercosur, que ostenta actualmente Uruguay”, dijo. Y añadió: “Hemos solicitado arrancar un proceso de negociación, si culmina este proceso de manera exitosa entonces pensaremos en la decisión de ingresar como miembro pleno”.

Rivadeneira fue nombrado como ministro de Comercio Exterior, una entidad que fuera creada mediante Decreto Ejecutivo 25 y que tendrá su sede en Guayaquil. Uno de sus retos es concretar la negociación de un acuerdo comercial entre Ecuador y la Unión Europea.

“Vamos a hacer todos los esfuerzos posibles para que el Ecuador pueda cerrar una negociación beneficiosa; en ese sentido, si todo sale bien vamos a viajar ahora en julio a Bruselas para reanudar diálogos políticos y técnicos para lograr un visto bueno de la Unión Europea para un nuevo arranque de las negociaciones”, señaló a la misma agencia.

VENEZUELA

Le Figaro (França) – Le président vénézuélien reçu discrètement à l’Élysée Ses opposants déplorent l’accueil réservé par François Hollande à Nicolas Maduro, dont la victoire, le 14 avril, demeure contestée. Patrick Bèle

François Hollande a reçu mercredi à l’Élysée Nicolas Maduro, le président vénézuélien, après un passage de ce dernier au Salon du Bourget. Dans une brève allocution à la sortie de la réunion, le président français a annoncé qu’un accord de coopération entre les deux pays serait signé dans les mois qui viennent.

Cette réception à l’Élysée est d’autant plus surprenante que la France avait juste « pris note » de l’élection de Nicolas Maduro, sans méconnaître la contestation de son élection. François Hollande est le seul chef d’État d’importance à avoir reçu le président du Venezuela qui, s’il a obtenu une audience avec le pape François, avait rencontré les présidents italiens et portugais lors de cette première tournée européenne en tant que chef de l’État vénézuélien.

Cette visite a choqué les représentants de l’opposition vénézuélienne à Paris qui se sont réunis aux abords de l’Élysée mercredi après-midi pour organiser un caserolazo : quelques dizaines de manifestants sont venues avec leur casserole et leur cuillère pour générer le maximum de bruits, comme de nombreux Vénézuéliens l’ont fait dans les jours qui ont suivi l’annonce de la victoire de Nicolas Maduro le 14 avril dernier. « Il est reçu comme un président légitime mais la moitié au moins des Vénézuéliens ne reconnaît pas son élection après le scrutin du 14 avril dernier », déplore Mercedes Viva, porte-parole à Paris de la

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Mesa de la Unidad (MUD) qui regroupe l’opposition. Nicolas Maduro, héritier désigné par Chavez, n’a devancé son adversaire de l’opposition, Henrique Capriles, que de moins de 200 000 voix. Ce dernier a déposé un recours devant le Conseil national électoral (CNE) pour exiger un recompte des bulletins et un contrôle des registres électoraux.

Le vote au Venezuela est entièrement électronique et a été qualifié par l’institut Carter de « meilleur du monde ». Cela n’empêche pas les fraudes. Le jour du scrutin, le « vote assisté » a été observé dans de nombreux bureaux et prouvé par des vidéos : un membre du PSUV, le parti au pouvoir, vérifie par-dessus l’épaule de l’électeur qu’il coche la bonne case. En cas de vote pour l’opposition, il risque de perdre le bénéfice des nombreuses aides de l’État qui ont permis d’améliorer la situation des populations dans les quartiers pauvres, notamment en termes de santé, d’éducation et d’alimentation. Plus grave : l’ensemble des ressources de l’État ont été mises au service du candidat officiel pendant la campagne. Les nombreux médias officiels se sont refusé à retransmettre les meetings de Capriles. Seul Globovision suivait le candidat de l’opposition.

Si le Conseil national électoral a validé l’élection et refusé de réviser l’ensemble des registres électoraux, le Tribunal suprême de justice, en majorité chaviste, n’a toujours pas rendu son avis sur la validité du scrutin alors qu’il aurait dû le faire depuis plus d’une semaine. « Nicolas Maduro vient chercher à l’étranger une légitimité qu’il n’a pas au niveau national, déplore Juan Caycedo, opposant vénézuélien vivant à Paris. Le régime de Maduro exerce une pression jamais vue sur la société vénézuélienne. Des journalistes sont poursuivis, le seul canal de l’opposition, Globovision, a été racheté juste après l’élection par des chavistes et aujourd’hui la ligne éditoriale a totalement changé. Le journaliste Leocenis Garcia, directeur du groupe de presse Sexto Poder, a été arrêté pendant plusieurs jours car il protestait contre le fait qu’on l’empêchait de racheter une chaîne de télévision... »

ABC Color (Paraguai) – Informe de misión europea sostiene que la elección de Maduro es nulaUna misión europea que siguió los últimos comicios presidenciales de Venezuela señaló que la elección de Nicolás Maduro como mandatario es nula por un “vicio de nulidad que afecta a todo el proceso electoral”, ya que entonces el candidato era vicepresidente, lo cual lo inhabilitaba.

Una publicación del diario El Nacional de Venezuela refiere que la interpretación de la Sala Constitucional de los artículos 229 y 232 que permitió la postulación de Maduro a la presidencia fue errónea, pues el vicepresidente no está habilitado para ser candidato, lo cual constituye “un vicio de nulidad que afecta a todo el proceso electoral”, sostuvo la ONG española Instituto de Altos Estudios Europeos (IAEE).

“El TSJ no solo fuerza la Constitución, al convertirlo en presidente sin cumplir los requisitos constitucionales, legales y procedimentales sino que olvida los artículos 57 y 58 de la LOPE (Ley Orgánica de Procesos Electorales) y 128 del Reglamento Electoral, que señalan que todo funcionario público debe separarse del cargo para postularse a elección popular. La interpretación resulta forzada e incluso sospechosa de una conducta prevaricadora”, señala el informe citado por el diario venezolano.

“Maduro no cumple con los requisitos del artículo 227 de la Constitución, puesto que contraviene el 229. Esta situación constituye un vicio de nulidad que afecta a todo el proceso, haciéndolo nulo de pleno derecho, y la Sala Constitucional del TSJ habría incurrido en la conducta tipificada en el artículo 25 de la Constitución que ha jurado defender y garantizar (…).

Todo acto que viole los derechos constitucionales son nulos y los funcionarios que los ordenen o ejecuten incurren en responsabilidad penal, civil y administrativa”, agrega.

“En las últimas decisiones del TSJ se constata una muy preocupante permeabilidad a la voluntad del Ejecutivo y del partido que le mantiene. Una situación así pone en peligro y en

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serias dudas la necesaria neutralidad y objetividad exigible a este órgano en un sistema democrático”, asevera el documento.

El reporte de prensa cita otras de las irregularidades detectadas por la misión, entre las que cita:

–“Inseguridad jurídica e inquietud ciudadana sobre el origen de la candidatura de Maduro, su elección o las respuestas contradictorias sobre aceptar una auditoría”.

–Afán de conservar el poder “a toda costa” y mantener el legado de Chávez constituye una violación de las normas y aumentar “la sospecha de una suspensión del estado de derecho”.

“Las instituciones del Estado han perdido neutralidad, vulneran la garantía del ejercicio libre y sano de los derechos y las obligaciones ciudadanas, dejan indefensa a la ciudadanía y sin razón de ser a la democracia”.

–“Actores políticos siguen volcados en enfrentamientos y no en debates que garanticen líneas estables”.

–La negativa del CNE de propiciar una auditoría completa ha generado ataques y “dudas” con respeto a su imparcialidad.

The Miami Herald (EUA) – Carter will irk both sides in Venezuela (Opinião/Andres Oppenheimer)When I interviewed former President Jimmy Carter on a wide range of issues a few days ago, I was especially interested in his views about Venezuela’s 2-month-old political crisis.

In the past, Carter, whose Carter Center is known among other things for its international election monitoring missions, has drawn the fury of Venezuelan oppositionists by giving his blessing to several elections that were officially won by Hugo Chávez, the late president and former coup plotter.

Would Carter now approve of the results of Venezuela’s April 14 elections, which according to the pro-government National Electoral Council were won by Chávez protégé Nicolás Maduro? Would he give some credence to opposition leader Henrique Capriles’ claims that the election had been stolen from him?

The Venezuelan government did not allow independent international election observers for the elections. It only allowed electoral tourists from friendly regional groups who arrived shortly before the voting.

(There is a big difference: while international observing missions monitor the entire election process over months, including how much television time candidates are given during the campaign, the visiting teams invited by Venezuela only observed the voting itself.)

After the elections, Venezuela’s electoral commission announced that Maduro had won by 1.5 percent of the vote.

Capriles denounced widespread irregularities, including outdated tallies that allowed multiple voting by government sympathizers, and said that if fraudulent votes were nullified, he would be declared the winner by 400,000 votes.

Asked during the interview, which is to be aired on CNN en Español on Sunday, whether Venezuela’s election process was clean, Carter asserted that “the voting part” of it was “free and fair.”

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“Venezuela probably has the most excellent voting system that I have ever known,” Carter said, referring to the touch-screen voting machines and the paper ballots that are used there.

“So far as I know, Maduro did get 1.5 percent more votes than his opponent, Capriles, and that has been substantiated by the recount of paper ballots.”

But Carter added that Venezuela’s electoral commission “has not yet fully addressed” several questions raised by Capriles concerning the accuracy of voters’ lists, intimidation of voters, questionable use of fingerprinting machines and other irregularities.

“My own belief is that the Central Electoral Commission should go ahead and investigate Capriles’ allegations, to see if they are justified or not,” Carter said.

“In the meantime, of course, Maduro is assumed to be the president, pending a final decision.”

He added, “I don’t know what the final result will be, but I do wish that Maduro would reach out to the other 50 percent, roughly, of the people in Venezuela and say, ‘You are part of my administration, of my government.’ ”

Asked whether the overall election rules were fair, Carter said that Maduro had more campaign funds and enjoyed a “tremendous advantage” in television time during the campaign. Maduro followed Chávez’s practice of “mandating” that television stations “follow his long speeches when his opponents are deprived of that right,” he said.

He added that Venezuela’s elections badly need public financing for all candidates’ campaigns, and that “the equalization of access to public and private radio and television would be a very good step in the right direction.”

My opinion: I have to confess that I have a soft spot for President Carter. When I was a student opposing the right-wing dictatorship in my native Argentina in the 1970s, he was the first U.S. president who sided with pro-democracy activists and human rights victims, rather than with oppressive governments.

But I’m intrigued by his failure in recent years to be equally supportive of pro-democracy activists and victims of government abuses in Venezuela and countries where presidents, once elected democratically, usurp near absolute powers and hold questionable elections.

Is it fair to call “the voting part” of an election “free and fair,” when the opposition’s claims of irregularities have not been fully investigated? Is it fair to separate the “voting part” of an election from the entire electoral process, when a president has a more than 10-1 advantage in television time? And if the election was clean, why didn’t Venezuela allow credible international election observers?

To his credit, Carter is requesting an investigation into Capriles’ complaints, and that Maduro reach out to the opposition.

I would only suggest to him that if he says that “the voting part” was “free and fair,” he should also say in equally explicit terms that the entire electoral process was one-sided and unfair.

AMÉRICA LATINA E CARIBE

Clarín (Argentina) – Timerman ratifica el planteo de solución pacífica por MalvinasPor Ana Barón

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El dato saliente este año es cómo impactará el referéndum en los miembros del tribunal.

Washington. Corresponsal

El Comité de Descolonización de la ONU se reúne hoy en Nueva York para analizar el reclamo de la Argentina por la soberanía de las Islas Malvinas como lo viene haciendo desde 1965.

Este año, sin embargo, el dato a tener en cuenta será el impacto del referéndum realizado en las islas este año: el 99% de los malvinenses se pronunció a favor de seguir bajo el dominio británico. La pregunta es si esto tendrá impacto entre los miembros del Comité o si por el contrario se adoptará por consenso -como sucede siempre- la resolución llamando a que la Argentina y Gran Bretaña a sentarse a negociar una solución al conflicto de forma pacifica.

Según contaron a esta corresponsal los peticionantes de los isleños que participarán en la sesión de hoy tienen la expectativa de que el referéndum tenga eco internacional y que se vea reflejado en los discursos.

Mike Summers uno de los peticionantes y miembro de la Asamblea legislativa de las islas, viene haciendo lobby a favor de que el mundo considere el asunto Malvinas como un conflicto de autodeterminación de los pueblos y no como un conflicto de soberanía. De hecho el 26 junio está previsto que Summers y su colega, Sharon Halford, hablaran en el prestigioso Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales (CSIS) de Washington. Hace sólo un par de semanas el representante republicano Mario Díaz Balart, introdujo en la Cámara de Diputados estadounidense una resolución bipartidaria a favor del referéndum y de “la autodeterminación de los pueblos” que sin duda será discutida durante la conferencia del CSIS.

El encargado de defender la posición argentina será, una vez más, el canciller argentino, Héctor Timerman, quien se encuentra en Nueva York con una delegación multipartidaria que incluye la gobernadora de la Tierra del Fuego, Fabiana Ríos, los gobernadores de Santa Fe, Antonio Bonfatti; Misiones, Maurice Closs; los senadores nacionales Marina Riofrío (FPV, San Juan), Osvaldo López (ARI, Tierra del Fuego) y Rubén Giustiniani (Partido Socialista, Santa Fe) y los diputados nacionales Guillermo Carmona (FPV), Carlos Heller (FPV), Juan Carlos Zabalza (Partido Socialista) y Pablo Tonelli (PRO).

De acuerdo a un comunicado de la Cancillería, Timerman ratificará la plena disposición de nuestro país para encontrar una solución pacífica a la disputa de soberanía “lo que no ha sido posible aún como resultado de la sistemática negativa del Reino Unido a reanudar las negociaciones con la Argentina”. Dirá que “Esta situación se ve a su vez agravada por las medidas unilaterales británicas en la zona en disputa, que incluyen el desarrollo de ilegítimas actividades de exploración y explotación de recursos naturales renovables y no renovables y la realización periódica de ejercicios militares”.

Según una declaratoria de ayer de Summers, al término de la presentación de hoy, no sólo invocará el referéndum sino también que el Comité de Descolonización tiene una lista de los territorios en disputa de hace 50 años. Summers acusó a los miembros de este comité de no haberse tomado el trabajo de viajar a esos territorios para ver qué pasa. “Algunos de los territorios no están listos para la independencia y muchos han encontrado maneras de relacionarse con los poderes que las administran que les viene bien y quieren continuar así. ¿Si un territorio decidió voluntariamente que no quiere la independencia o la integración, quien es este comité para decirles que lo tiene que hacer?”.

Ansa Latina (Itália) – Las FARC "proponen" democratizar el estado

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Las FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) presentaron hoy en Cuba durante el diálogo de paz que desarrollan con el gobierno de Colombia diez propuestas "mínimas" sobre la "democratizacón real del estado", según anunciaron hoy los guerrilleros.

Antes de iniciarse la sesión de este miércoles de esas negociaciones en el Palacio de las Convenciones de la capital cubana, Ricardo Téllez, uno de los negociadores por las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, leyó un comunicado al respecto ante la prensa.

Es "necesario e inaplazable el proceso de democratización real del Estado", explicó Téllez.

El guerrillero dijo que se busca "la redefinición de los poderes públicos y de sus facultades, así como del equilibro entre ellos, eliminando el carácter presidencialista del Estado".

The Wall Street Journal (EUA) – Ministers MacKay and Ablonczy and General Lawson Announce Increased Support to UN Mission in HaitiMinisters MacKay and Ablonczy and General Lawson Announce Increased Support to UN Mission in Haiti

The Honourable Peter MacKay, Minister of National Defence, the Honourable Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs) and General Tom Lawson, the Chief of the Defence Staff, today announced the upcoming deployment of Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel as part of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH).

A CAF platoon from Quebec will depart on Friday, June 21st, 2013 to operate within a Brazilian battalion in Haiti until December. Their efforts will contribute to one of the CAF's core roles - supporting international peace and security for greater stability in our hemisphere. This mission also demonstrates the Government of Canada's ongoing commitment engaging in the Americas and deepening partnerships throughout the region.

"Canadians have been part of MINUSTAH since its inception in 2004 and their ongoing efforts will continue to benefit Haitians and improve Canada's relations with our partners in the Western Hemisphere," said Minister MacKay. "As part of this mission, our Canadian Armed Forces members will work alongside Brazilian troops to maintain a secure and stable environment in Haiti."

"Both Brazil and Haiti are important neighbours for Canada. This new deployment is an excellent opportunity to deepen our partnerships and further strengthen the connection between our peoples," said the Honourable Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs). "I am very pleased that our armed forces will be working together in this new capacity, as we support Haiti in building a brighter future for the Haitian people, and in turn a more prosperous, secure and democratic hemisphere."

The 34 CAF members come from 5 Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group in Valcartier, Quebec, and have completed language and peace-support training in Brazil to prepare them for this new mission. This platoon will complement Canada's military contribution to MINUSTAH that currently includes five military staff officers deployed on Operation Hamlet. Additionally, there are approximately 90 Canadian police officers serving with the United Nations in Haiti.

"Our increased contribution to the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti serves to highlight Canada's on-going commitment to the region, as well as our commitment to supporting international peace and security, " said General Tom Lawson, Chief of the Defence Staff. "This deployment will also further develop our relationship and enhance our military-military cooperation with Brazil. I have every confidence that our personnel will

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serve with honour and distinction in Haiti; facts in which all Canadians can take great pride."

MINUSTAH has been critical in stabilizing the security situation in Haiti and has made important contributions by assisting with the conduct of elections, building up institutional capacity and helping to develop a more effective police force, legal system and correctional services.

MINUSTAH was established under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1542 of April 30, 2004, with a mandate to maintain a secure and stable environment, to support Haiti's constitutional and political process, and to protect human rights. Its initial term of six months has been repeatedly extended annually, most recently to October 15, 2013, by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2070 of October 12, 2012.

El País (Espanha) – EE UU y Cuba retoman el diálogo sobre los acuerdos migratóriosEVA SAIZ

Es la segunda reapertura de negociaciones entre ambos países en una semana.

El Departamento de Estado insiste en que no se trata de un cambio de política

Estados Unidos y Cuba retomarán el próximo 17 de julio las conversaciones para revisar la implementación de los acuerdos migratorios entre ambos países, han confirmado fuentes del Departamento de Estado a EL PAÍS. Se trata del segundo anuncio de reanudación de negociaciones entre la Administración estadounidense y el Gobierno de la isla que se produce en una semana, después de que el lunes se informará del reinicio del diálogo para restaurar el servicio postal directo, suspendido desde 1963. Desde el Departamento de Estado se insiste en que estas iniciativas no son indicativas de un cambio en la política hacia la isla, pero muchas asociaciones de exiliados y organizaciones centradas en América Latina lo consideran un avance hacia la normalización de las relaciones.

Los acuerdos de migración son uno de los asuntos bilaterales de mayor transcendencia entre ambos Estados. La crisis de los balseros en 1994 provocó un viraje en de la aplicación de la política migratoria de EE UU hacia Cuba que concluyó con la firma de los Acuerdos de 1994 y 1995 que regulan, entre otros aspectos, el control de la inmigración ilegal o el otorgamiento de visados. Es en el marco de esos dos pactos en el que se van a desarrollar las nuevas conversaciones. “Entonces, EE UU y Cuba reiteraron su compromiso de que la migración fuera segura, legal y pacífica”, señalan desde el Departamento de Estado. “Esto demuestra nuestro interés en promover más libertades y en incrementar el respeto por los derechos humanos en Cuba”.

Pese a ese interés, desde el Departamento de Estado indican que las negociaciones, que se desarrollarán entre miembros de esa institución y representantes del Gobierno cubano el próximo mes, serán “eminentemente técnicas” y se centrarán en cuestiones relacionadas con los emigrantes y los refugiados”. La cuestión migratoria entre ambos países ha cobrado relevancia desde que el régimen castrista levantara, con excepciones, las restricciones sobre los viajes fuera de la isla a principio de enero de este año. Desde entonces, se ha producido un evidente aumento de los cubanos que llegan a EE UU directamente o a través de México, de manera legal e ilegal. Aunque no hay cifras oficiales, el pasado mes de mayo, el director de la Inteligencia Nacional, James Clapper, declaró al Senado que desde que ha entrado en vigor la nueva política migratoria de La Habana, se ha producido un “aumento significativo de las solicitudes de visados” por parte de cubanos.

La Administración de George W. Bush suspendió los diálogos bianuales sobre los acuerdos migratorios en 2003. El presidente Barack Obama los retomó en 2009. La última vez que se celebraron fue en 2011 en La Habana, pero las negociaciones se estancaron debido a la detención, en 2009, y posterior condena a 15 años de prisión del ciudadano

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estadounidense Alan Gross. La prisión de Gross es el principal obstáculo para la normalización de las relaciones entre EE UU y Cuba. Su falta de libertad provocó en 2009 la paralización de las conversaciones sobre la restauración del servicio postal entre ambos países, que se se retomaron este martes y finalizan hoy. -El Departamento de Estado no ha dado información todavía sobre los avances alcanzados-.

El anuncio de la reapertura de las negociaciones para reanudar el servicio postal fue recibido con moderado optimismo por los grupos de exiliados cubanos que esperan pasos más importantes para acelerar la transición política en la isla. Sin embargo, la confirmación de esta nueva iniciativa por parte del Departamento de Estado ha sido recibida como una muestra inequívoca de la intención de la Administración Obama por acercar posturas con el Gobierno de Cuba. “Obviamente que querríamos más, pero se trata de pasos en la buena dirección que suponen un avance y no la creación de más obstáculos”, afirma en conversación telefónica, Mavis Anderson, miembro de Latin America Working Group.

Más escéptico se muestra Tomás Bilbao, director ejecutivo de Cuban Study Group, Bilbao sostiene que el Gobierno de EE UU debe adoptar medidas mucho más ambiciosas si no quiere defraudar las expectativas generadas por Obama sobre un viraje de la política de este país hacia la isla que permita la consolidación de las reformas y ayude a la sociedad civil. El hecho de que el Departamento de Estado decidiera mantener a Cuba en la lista de países terroristas se percibe por muchos cubanoamericanos como una lastre que todavía ensombrece los últimos gestos de cambio de la Administración. Los sectores más reaccionarios, no obstante, ven en el reinicio del diálogo migratorio una concesión de Obama al régimen castrista.

El País (Espanha) – ¿Pierde Estados Unidos a Latinoamérica? (Opinião/ Shlomo Bem Ami)El poderoso vecino del norte no debería ceder su posición, dejándosela a Rusia, China o Irán.

Es un mantra que se escucha cada vez más en todo el mundo. El poder de Estados Unidos está decayendo. Y en América Latina esto se constata más que en ningún otro lugar. La región ya no es considerada el “patio trasero” de Estados Unidos, al contrario, presumiblemente el continente nunca ha estado ni tan unido ni tan independiente. Sin embargo, este punto de vista no refleja la verdadera naturaleza de la influencia estadounidense en América Latina y en otros lugares.

Es cierto que la atención de Estados Unidos hacia América Latina ha disminuido en años recientes. El presidente George W. Bush estaba más concentrado en su “guerra global contra el terrorismo”. Su sucesor, Barack Obama, tuvo al parecer poco interés en la región, al menos en su primer mandato.

En efecto, en la Cumbre de las Américas, que tuvo lugar en Cartagena en 2012, los dirigentes latinoamericanos se sintieron lo suficientemente seguros y unidos como para desafiar las prioridades estadounidenses en la región. Exigieron a Estados Unidos levantar el embargo a Cuba, con el argumento de que había dañado las relaciones con el resto del continente, y hacer más para combatir el uso de drogas en su propio mercado mediante educación y trabajo social, en lugar de suministrar armas para luchar contra los capos de la droga en América Latina —batalla que todos piensan ha sido un total fracaso—.

También es cierto que los países latinoamericanos han diversificado enormemente las relaciones económicas más allá de la influencia estadounidense. China es ahora el segundo socio comercial más grande de América Latina y rápidamente está alcanzando a Estados Unidos. India está mostrando un fuerte interés en la industria energética de la región y ha concluido acuerdos de exportación en el sector de defensa. Irán ha fortalecido sus vínculos económicos y militares, en especial con Venezuela.

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Asimismo, en el año 2008, el entonces presidente ruso, Dmitri Medvédev, vio la guerra estadounidense contra el terrorismo como una oportunidad de crear acuerdos estratégicos con potencias emergentes como Brasil o el ALBA, la Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de nuestra América, un bloque ideado por Venezuela opuesto a los proyectos estadounidenses en la región. El gigante energético, Gazprom y las industrias militares del país han encabezado los esfuerzos del Kremlin por demostrar la capacidad de influencia rusa en los países vecinos de Estados Unidos —una respuesta directa a la percepción de una intromisión estadounidense en el propio “vecindario inmediato” ruso, en particular en Georgia y Ucrania—.

Con todo, sería un error considerar la diversificación de las relaciones internacionales de América Latina como el evento que marca el fin de la supremacía de Estados Unidos. A diferencia de la era pasada de superpotencias y naciones cautivas, la influencia estadounidense ya no puede seguir definiéndose como el poder de colocar y deponer dirigentes desde la Embajada estadounidense. Pensar así es ignorar cómo ha cambiado la política internacional en el último cuarto de siglo.

Un continente que en otros tiempos sufrió golpes militares ha implantando lenta, pero firmemente democracias estables. La gestión económica responsable, los programas de lucha contra la pobreza, las reformas estructurales y una mayor apertura a la inversión extranjera han contribuido en conjunto a generar años de crecimiento con baja inflación. En consecuencia, la región pudo resistir los estragos de la crisis financiera global.

Estados Unidos no solo fomentó estos cambios, sino que se benefició enormemente de ellos. Ahora más del 40% de las exportaciones estadounidenses van a México, Sudamérica y América Central, su destino de más rápido crecimiento. México es el segundo mercado extranjero más grande de Estados Unidos (con un valor estimado de 215.000 millones de dólares en 2012). En los últimos seis años, las exportaciones de Estados Unidos hacia América Central han aumentado un 94% y las importaciones procedentes de la región han crecido un 87%. Asimismo, la inversión extranjera más importante en el continente sigue siendo la de Estados Unidos. Es claro que los intereses estadounidenses se favorecen al tener vecinos democráticos estables y cada vez más prósperos.

Esta nueva realidad también exige un estilo diferente de diplomacia —uno que reconozca la diversidad de intereses en el continente—. Por ejemplo, una potencia emergente como Brasil quiere más respeto en la escena mundial. Obama se equivocó cuando en 2010 descartó un acuerdo sobre el programa nuclear de Irán mediado por Brasil y Turquía (a pesar de que anteriormente había respaldado estas negociaciones). Otros países podrían verse favorecidos por los esfuerzos estadounidenses para promover la democracia y las relaciones socioeconómicas, como muestran las giras recientes de Obama a México y Costa Rica.

Las relaciones comerciales representan otro instrumento importante. El presidente chileno, Sebastián Piñera, visitó la Casa Blanca hace poco para tratar, entre otros, el tema del acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico (TPP, por sus siglas en inglés), acuerdo ambicioso de libre comercio que podría abarcar Nueva Zelanda, Singapur, Australia, México, Canadá y Japón. También visitó la Casa Blanca el presidente peruano, Ollanta Humala, mientras que el vicepresidente estadounidense, Joe Biden, tiene programado visitar América Latina pronto.

La lengua y cultura también importan. Dado el extraordinario crecimiento de la influencia latina en Estados Unidos, es casi inconcebible que dicho país pueda perder su estatus único en la región a favor de China, Rusia y ya no se diga de Irán.

Ya pasaron los días en que el poder militar y la política de subversión podían garantizar la influencia estadounidense —en América Latina o en otros lugares—. Actualmente, una potencia mundial es una que puede combinar el dinamismo económico y una cultura popular con un alcance mundial basado en intereses compartidos. Estados Unidos está mejor posicionado que cualquier otra potencia en este sentido, en particular cuando se trata de aplicar estas ventajas en su vecindario inmediato.

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Shlomo ben Ami, exministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Israel, es vicepresidente del Centro Internacional Toledo para la Paz (Toledo International Center for Peace) y autor de Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy.Traducción de Kena Nequiz.

EUROPA

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Erdogan woos Turks with promises of more prosperityDaniel Dombey

Appearing before the massed ranks of his AK party this week, Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke off from his frequent denunciations of protesters to make a more positive case for his stewardship of Turkey's government.

The prime minister appealed to Turks' economic self-interest as he reeled off new five-year goals: increasing average income by more than 50 per cent to $16,000; reducing the country's perennial current account deficit, creating 4m new jobs and taming inflation.

"Our greatest capital is our brotherhood," Mr Erdogan exclaimed. "While reaching these targets we will be improving democracy . . . We will be walking towards much more beautiful days."

Though his goals may be ambitious, particularly at a time when his government has been rocked by mass peaceful protests, for large parts of Mr Erdogan's constituency they are seen as anything but idle talk. During Mr Erdogan's decade in office, the country has enjoyed unprecedented economic prosperity, political stability and indeed institutional reform.

Government ministers have long argued that ten years of a strong single party government have provided the basis of the country's economic success – a contrast with the weak coalitions that preceded it. Since 2002, real GDP per capita has risen more than 40 per cent. In nominal dollar terms it has tripled.

In reacting to the protesters who have shaken his government, Mr Erdogan has not just tried to dismiss them as marginal groups doing the bidding of international conspirators. He has argued that with him at the helm, with solid public backing, Turkey stands to grow more and address its most pressing problems.

This is the offer he is making the Turkish public as he seeks to put the protests behind him. It is one that resonates with much of the population. The AK party remains by far the country's most popular, despite a recent decline in its support.

But others question whether Mr Erdogan's prospectus is out of date and whether his glory days of growth and reform now belong to the past.

"Despite all the events of the past three weeks, Turkey today is still not only more prosperous and more peaceful but more democratic and freer than it was 10 years ago," says Hakan Altinay at the Brookings Institution. "But it isn't the protesters that are holding him back from further reform; it is his temperament."

Mr Erdogan has been dogged in making his case. In one speech he pointed out that there have been no deaths in the country's Kurdish conflict in recent months thanks to a peace process he has embarked on. He has also sought to put reports of police beatings and indiscriminate use of tear gas and water cannon in the context of his own record as a reformer.

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"When the police had right to use unlimited power, we limited this with the laws we made," he told an audience of hundreds of thousands at a weekend rally in Istanbul. "We said zero tolerance to torture."

Mr Erdogan's many supporters have responded enthusiastically. "The AK party and Erdogan have done many things for the Turkish economy and democracy in 10 years that others could not manage in 30-40 years," said Mustafa Duran, a 42-year-old textile worker in the Istanbul district of Umraniye.

But there are signs that some of Mr Erdogan's greatest accomplishments may be behind him. Even per capita income in dollar terms, the most flattering measure of growth in the AKP years, has not risen dramatically above the $10,000 level it hit in 2008.

Mr Altinay argues that many of the reforms Mr Erdogan presided over were due to the country's membership application to the EU – a bid already in trouble before the recent scenes of police force reached Brussels and Berlin.

As for the Kurdish issue, in fighting back against the demonstrators, Mr Erdogan has recently made common cause with Turkish nationalists for whom the Kurdish opening is anathema. Kurdish activists and militants have begun to express pessimism about the future of the talks.

"You can't be democratic and libertarian on one issue and harsh and despotic on another," says Cengiz Candar, a Turkish columnist. "It just doesn't work like that."

But Mr Altinay still holds out a little hope, in part based on the strategic imperative for Mr Erdogan to end a 30 year conflict at a time when the Syrian war has increased instability in the region and in Turkey itself. "The story of Erdogan the reformer was too rosy four weeks ago," he says. "Now our pessimism may be overshooting."

La Tribune (França) – Chypre est bien partie pour redevenir le cauchemar des Européens L'appel au secours du président chypriote doit être pris au sérieux par les Européens, s'ils ne veulent pas que Chypre redevienne un cauchemar. Car les avantages de l'euro s'estompent pour le pays.

Comme la lettre du président chypriote vient de le rappeler, l'affaire chypriote n'a rien perdu de son caractère exemplaire pour le reste de l'Europe. A l'heure où le FMI reconnaît - à la grande fureur de la Commission européenne et de la BCE - des erreurs dans la gestion de la crise grecque, la troïka semble en passe de doubler la mise avec Chypre.

La quadrature du cercle bancaireL'aide à cette petite république a en effet été montée en urgence, sous la pression de la BCE qui brandissait la menace d'une sortie de Chypre de la zone euro. Nul n'a semblé réellement prendre la mesure des conséquences et de la faisabilité des recettes préconisés. Surtout, un seul critère a servi de fil conducteur : engager le moins possible les contribuables des autres pays, tout en maintenant Chypre dans la zone euro. Ainsi a-t-on exclu 15 milliards d'euros d'engagements grecs de toute participation au sauvetage afin de préserver les banques grecques que l'on ne voulait pas à nouveau recapitaliser. Ainsi a-t-on également maintenu dans le bilan de la Bank of Cyprus 9 milliards de créances sur la BCE au titre de l'aide à la liquidité d'urgence, l'ELA. Autant de poids que le système bancaire chypriote ne peut supporter, lui qui n'a guère dans son bilan que des dépôts qui, depuis mars, ont fondu de près d'un cinquième, malgré le contrôle des capitaux.

Depuis plusieurs mois, Nicosie et la troïka tente de résoudre la quadrature du cercle en tenant de monter une restructuration viable du système bancaire chypriote dans ces conditions. C'est évidemment impossible, à moins de faire sortir le pays de la zone euro et

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de payer en nouvelle monnaie ou d'augmenter le montant de la solidarité européenne. Deux options exclues pour le moment. Mais la situation ne pourra rester indéfiniment bloquée.

L'économie se déliteCar, pendant ce temps, l'économie chypriote se désintègre progressivement. Les prévisions de la troïka étaient de toute évidence irréalistes. Le PIB chypriote va reculer de 9 % cette année, peut-être 5 % selon le FMI l'an prochain, En deux ans, la richesse du pays sera réduite de 15 %. Même la Grèce n'a pas connu une telle cure. Les mesures d'austérité imposées par la troïka pèsent bien sûr, mais c'est surtout l'absence de vrai secteur bancaire et d'investissement en raison du contrôle des capitaux qui asphyxie l'économie chypriote. Tout ceci amène l'absence absolue de confiance dans l'avenir qui gèle encore le fonctionnement de l'économie. Et cette fois, il sera difficile de faire admettre que cette potion permettra d'assurer la « croissance future » du pays.

Quitter l'euro est-il une solution ?En réalité, la zone euro est devenue un enfer pour Chypre. Il est désormais difficile de penser qu'une sortie du pays de l'UEM - aussi catastrophique soit-elle - donne lieu à une situation pire que celle que connaît le pays aujourd'hui. Sans doute, les Chypriotes devront-ils compter avec l'inflation générée par la dévaluation rapide de leur monnaie. Sans doute, l'Etat chypriote, devenu insolvable et incapable d'emprunter sur les marchés, devra-t-il serrer les vis. Mais, du moins, une nouvelle monnaie permettrait de faire fonctionner à nouveau l'économie, en particulier le système bancaire.

Prendre le risque de laisser sortir Chypre ?La question se pose donc à nouveau de savoir si Chypre doit rester ou non dans la zone euro. Si l'Europe pense pouvoir régler le problème en l'ignorant, elle se trompe. Une sortie de l'île de la zone euro pourrait coûter cher à cette dernière. L'OMT, dont se vante tant Mario Draghi, le gouverneur de la BCE mais qui n'est encore qu'une menace, pourrait bien alors devoir être actionné. Les marchés seraient en effet tentés de tester la BCE sur le fameux « whatever it takes » (quoi qu'il en coûte) pour sauver l'euro de Mario Draghi. Or, ce dernier doit craindre un tel scénario, lui qui n'a pas encore, malgré ses promesses, publier le cadre légal de l'OMT (9 mois après son annonce !). Sans compter que si Nicosie quitte la zone euro, il y a fort à parier que le MES et la BCE doivent encaisser des pertes. Que l'Europe se méfie donc : la bombe chypriote est encore bourrée d'explosifs. Et c'est ce qu'a voulu dire Nikos Anastasiadès avec son appel au secours. L'ignorer serait inconscient.

ÁSIA

Reuters (Reino Unido) – Afghan peace bid stumbles on Kabul- Taliban protocol rowBy Amena Bakr

A fresh effort to end Afghanistan's 12-year-old war looked in disarray on Thursday after a diplomatic spat about the Taliban's new Qatar office delayed preliminary discussions between the United States and the Islamist insurgents. Talks between U.S. officials and representatives of the Taliban had been set for Thursday in Qatar but Afghan government anger at the fanfare surrounding the opening of a Taliban office in the Gulf state threw preparations into confusion. The squabble may set the tone for what could be long and arduous negotiations to end a war that has raged since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan that followed the September 11, 2001 al Qaeda attacks on U.S. targets.

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Asked when the talks would now take place, the source in Doha said "There is nothing scheduled that I am aware of." Asked if that meant they would not happen today, the source added: "Yes that's correct." The opening of the office was a practical step paving the way for peace talks. But the official-looking protocol surrounding the event raised angry protests in Kabul that the office would develop into a Taliban government-in-exile: A diplomatic scramble ensued to allay their concerns. A Taliban flag that had been hoisted at the Taliban office on Tuesday had been taken down and lay on the ground on Thursday, although it appeared still attached to a flagpole. A name plate, inscribed with the title "Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" had also been removed. Questioned whether the Taliban's office in Doha had created a sense of optimism about peace efforts, the source replied: "Optimism and pessimism are irrelevant. The most important thing is that we now know the Taliban are ready to talk, and sometimes talk is expensive." Word of the U.S.-Taliban talks had raised hopes that Karzai's government and the Taliban might enter their first-ever direct negotiations on Afghanistan's future, with Washington acting as a broker and Pakistan as a major outside player. The Taliban has until now refused talks with Kabul, calling Karzai and his government puppets of the West. But a senior Afghan official said earlier the Taliban was now willing to consider talks with the government. PRISONER SWAP In its talks with the U.S. officials, the Taliban was expected to demand the return of former senior commanders now detained at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, a move opposed by many in the U.S. Congress, as well as the departure of all foreign troops. The United States wants the return of the only known U.S. prisoner of war from the conflict, Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, who is believed to be held by the Taliban. The protocol dispute burst into the open on Wednesday when Afghan President Hamid Karzai said his government would not join U.S. talks with the Taliban and would halt negotiations with Washington on a post-2014 troop pact. Officials from Karzai's government, angered by the official-sounding name the Taliban chose for its political office in Doha, said the United States had violated assurances it would not give official status to the insurgents. Afghan government officials objected to the impression that the insurgents had achieved some level of international political recognition and could use it as an official embassy or even as a base for a government-in-exile. "As long as the peace process is not Afghan-led, the High Peace Council will not participate in the talks in Qatar," Karzai said in a statement, referring to a body he set up in 2010 to seek a negotiated peace with the Taliban. VOID OF TRUST A statement on Qatar's foreign ministry website late on Wednesday clarified that the office which opened was called the "Political Bureau for Afghan Taliban in Doha". The source familiar with the matter said: "The Taliban have to understand that this office isn't an embassy and they are not representing a country."

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The dispute over the Taliban office after months of behind-the-scenes diplomacy to restart the peace talks underscored what U.S. officials say is a void of trust between Karzai and the Taliban, who have been waging an insurgency to overthrow his government and oust foreign troops. Fighting continued in the war-ravaged nation. Four U.S. soldiers were killed in a rocket attack on the heavily fortified Bagram base near Kabul late on Tuesday, international military officials said. U.S. and Afghan officials said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke with Karzai on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday morning in an effort to defuse the controversy. Underlining the importance of the process to the United States, the State Department said Kerry would travel to Doha for meetings with senior Qatari officials on Friday and Saturday. But U.S. officials said he would not meet with Taliban representatives. (Additional reporting by Yara Bayoumy in Dubai, Miriam Arghandiwal, Jeff Mason and Roberta Rampton in Berlin and Phil Stewart in Washington; writing by William Maclean; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Reuters (Reino Unido) – Myanmar constitution likely to dash Suu Kyi's presidential hopesBy Jared Ferrie

Her adoring compatriots believe democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi is destined to become Myanmar's next president. But don't bet on it.

A year ago, the Nobel Peace Prize winner was feted at home and abroad and flush from her National League for Democracy (NLD) party's landslide wins in April 2012 by-elections, which swept her into parliament.

Even a military-drafted constitution designed to exclude her from the highest office seemed a surmountable hurdle.

Now the journey from political prisoner to president appears much less certain, even as her ambition is clearer than ever.

"I want to be president and I'm quite frank about it," she told journalists at the World Economic Forum in the capital Naypyitaw on June 6.

But to emerge as president after a 2015 general election, Suu Kyi, 68, must overcome challenges that would daunt a less formidable political survivor.

She must convince a military-dominated parliament to amend the constitution.

Even if she can do that, and the constitution can be amended in time, she could then face a voter backlash over her position on a violent and widening rift between her nation's Buddhists and minority Muslims.

Her rare public expressions of support for Muslims, who have borne the brunt of waves of sectarian violence, put her in a politically fraught position in the Buddhist-majority country.

Some people wonder if the violence is being exploited by conservative opponents to chip away at her support.

To win power, she would also have to fend off two former generals who covet the top spot. The first is Shwe Mann, the influential speaker of Myanmar's lower house.

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The other is the popular incumbent Thein Sein, whose quasi-civilian government took power in March 2011 after nearly half a century of military rule and launched a series of political and economic reforms. Thein Sein might seek a second term despite health concerns.

NO EASY TASKSuu Kyi's most immediate problem is the constitution.

It bars anyone married to a foreigner or who has children who are foreign citizens. Suu Kyi and her husband, the late British academic Michael Aris, had two children who are British.

"By all accounts it was drawn up with her in mind," Andrew McLeod, a professor at Sydney Law School and deputy director of the Myanmar Constitutional Reform Project, said of the constitution, drawn up under the former military junta.

Any constitutional amendment would require 75 percent support in parliament - no easy task when the constitution also reserves a quarter of seats for the military.

Most of the rest of the members of parliament are members of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), created by the old junta and largely made up of retired military officers.

If passed by parliament, an amendment must win more than half the vote in a referendum. Some analysts say there just isn't enough time to do all that before the 2015 election.

But even if she can pull off the amendments, the reality of partisan politics could threaten Suu Kyi's presidential hopes.

Suu Kyi, the daughter of the hero of the campaign for independence from Britain, faces pressure internationally to defend the persecuted, including Muslims. But when she does, her once-unassailable popularity is threatened.

At least 237 people have been killed in violence between Myanmar's Buddhists and Muslims over the past year and about 150,000 people have been left homeless. Most of the victims have been stateless Rohingya Muslims in the western state of Rakhine.

Groups such as the New York-based Human Rights Watch have condemned Suu Kyi for not using her moral authority to speak in defence of the Rohingya for fear of upsetting the Buddhist majority ahead of the election.

A 1982 law bars most Rohingya from citizenship and the government - and many ordinary Buddhists - consider them illegal immigrants from Bangladesh even though many can trace ancestry in Rakhine state for generations.

ALIENATING VOTERS?When asked about her failure to strongly condemn violence against the Rohingya, Suu Kyi said at the World Economic Forum she didn't want to "aggravate the situation" by taking sides. But she has criticised a policy in Rakhine State limiting Rohingya women to two children.

Suu Kyi has also said the government should re-examine the 1982 citizenship law. But that prompted the Daily Eleven newspaper to warn that any attempt by her to change the law would alienate voters and cost her party the next election.

For Suu Kyi the presidency would crown a remarkable life.

The military put her under house arrest in 1989 following the suppression of pro-democracy protests. The NLD swept a 1990 election by a landslide but the junta ignored the result and kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 of the next 20 years.

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She was released in November 2010 a week after a general election, widely regarded as rigged, swept the USDP to power. The NLD boycotted the election as undemocratic.

The European Union and United States have lifted or suspended most sanctions against Myanmar, although Washington warned they could be reimposed if it backtracked on reform.

Denying Suu Kyi a crack at the presidency could suggest to the world that Myanmar is doing just that, said McLeod. This could prompt Western companies to halt investment in one of Asia's last frontier economies.

But Bertil Lintner, a veteran journalist and author of several books on Myanmar, said that was not likely.

"I think the foreign business community would prefer to have the USDP and the military in power," he said. "For them, it means stability and continuity."

ÁFRICA

Global Post (EUA) – UN vows attack will not end Somalia mission United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council on Wednesday expressed outrage at an Islamist attack on an UN compound in Somalia which killed least nine people.

Seven attackers were also killed in the suicide bombing on the UN compound in Mogadishu, and attack claimed by Shebab militants, which was followed by a fierce gun battle with security forces.

Ban telephoned Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud soon after the attack, UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said.

"The secretary general said the United Nations would not be deterred from delivering its mandate," said Nesirky, in a statement released from Beijing where Ban is on an official visit.

He said Ban was "deeply concerned and outraged by the despicable attack."

The 15-nation Security Council also said it was outraged by the attack and praised the "brave response" by Somali armed forces and the African Union-UN peacekeepers who fought off the Shebab guerrillas.

The council "underlines that terrorist acts in Somalia will not lessen the council's resolve to support Somalia's transition to peace and stability."

It said it was ready "to take action against those whose behavior threatens the peace, stability or security of Somalia."

The UN mission to Somalia headquarters has only recently been moved to Mogadishu because of the security threat and Nicholas Kay, a British diplomat, only started as the UN envoy there on June 3.

"I don't think there has been excessive optimism," said Britain's UN ambassador Mark Lyall Grant, Security Council president for June.

"Given the 20 years of civil war and instability in Somalia, very significant progress has been made," he added.

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"Everyone knows that that progress is very fragile, everyone knows there are very significant challenges, both security and political and indeed economic and humanitarian ahead for Somalia."

All Security Council members had backed moving the mission to Mogadishu.

People's Daily Online (China) – Consejo de Seguridad de ONU elogia acuerdo de tregua en MaliEl Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) dio la bienvenida este miércoles a un acuerdo de tregua firmado el martes entre el gobierno y los rebeldes en Mali, llamando a los signatarios a "implementar plenamente sus disposiciones".

El Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) dio la bienvenida este miércoles a un acuerdo de tregua firmado el martes entre el gobierno y los rebeldes en Mali, llamando a los signatarios a "implementar plenamente sus disposiciones".

"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad dan la bienvenida a la firma en Ouagadougou el 18 de junio de 2013 de un 'acuerdo preliminar para las elecciones presidenciales y a las conversaciones de paz inclusivas en Mali' entre las autoridades del gobierno de transición, el Movimiento Nacional para la Liberación de Azawad (MNLA) y el Consejo Superior de la Unidad de Azawad (HCUA)", indica un comunicado de prensa divulgado aquí la noche del miércoles.

El acuerdo, alcanzado tras 10 días de tensas negociaciones, permitirá que las tropas maliense entren en la ciudad de Kidal, ocupada por los rebeldes, en el noreste del país de Africa Occidental para garantizar la seguridad durante las elecciones presidenciales previstas para el 28 de julio.

Las conversaciones de paz a largo plazo se iniciarán después de las elecciones.

"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad apuntan que este acuerdo reafirma la soberanía, la integridad territorial, la unidad nacional y la laicidad del Estado de Mali, proporciona un alto el fuego inmediato y allana el camino para la celebración a escala nacional de elecciones presidenciales", asegura el comunicado.

Además, continúa, "establece un marco para unas conversaciones inclusivas con todas las comunidades del norte de Mali y constituye un importante paso hacia la paz y la estabilidad duraderas en Mali".

"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad elogian en este sentido los esfuerzos de mediación de la Comunidad Económica de Estados de Africa Occidental (ECOWAS) dirigidos por los presidentes de Burkina Faso y Nigeria, con el apoyo del representante especial del secretario general de la ONU, el representante superior de la Unión Africana y el representante especial de la Unión Europea", indica el texto.

"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad llaman a todos los signatarios a implementar plenamente sus disposiciones, con el apoyo de la Misión Multidimensional Integrada de Estabilización de las Naciones Unidas en Mali (MINUSMA), la Misión Internacional de Apoyo a Mali liderada por Africa (AFISMA), la Unión Africana (UA) y la ECOWAS", destaca.

Las negociaciones se iniciaron el pasado 8 de junio para eliminar las diferencias entre las partes rivales previo a las elecciones previstas para julio con el propósito de poner fin a la crisis desatada tras el golpe de estado del 22 de marzo del año pasado.

En abril, el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU aprobó una operación de mantenimiento de paz de la ONU, integrada por 12.600 miembros, conocida como MINUSMA, para tomar el mando en Mali el próximo 1 de julio durante un periodo inicial de 12 meses.

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Le Monde (França) – Quand la marine française traque les pirates Golfe de Guinée Envoyée spéciale

Menaces terroristes, prises d'otages, trafics : le golfe de Guinée s'impose comme une priorité stratégique

Dans la nuit opaque, des dizaines de puits crachent des flammes orangées. C'est la seule lueur visible sur la mer noir d'encre, dans cette portion du golfe de Guinée, au sud du Nigeria, l'un des plus grands champs pétrolifères offshore du monde. A bord du Latouche-Tréville, l'obscurité règne aussi. La frégate française patrouille en silence. Pour cette nuit de juin, au large de Port Harcourt, le navire de guerre s'est tracé un terrain de jeu de 200 km2. La zone est hérissée de pièges : forages abandonnés, plates-formes secondaires, plates-formes mères, oléoducs reliant les unes aux autres en toile d'araignée, sur des milliers de kilomètres. Les puits du groupe pétrolier français Total figurent telles de larges pièces de monnaie sur les cartes de la marine nationale.

Le Latouche-Tréville a " quelques échanges informels " avec les compagnies françaises dans la zone, mais le bateau veut circuler sans rendre compte ; il demeure sourd aux appels des étrangers qui lui demandent de s'identifier. " Ici, c'est chacun pour soi ", commente l'officier de quart. Les plates-formes pétrolières violent le droit des eaux internationales en traçant autour d'elles, à 20 km au lieu des 500 m autorisés, un périmètre de sécurité gardé par des sociétés militaires privées. " Les gardes sont très nerveux. L'insécurité est très élevée ", poursuit l'officier.

Dans ces eaux chaudes, où transitent les richesses de l'Afrique, il rôde des fantômes : vedettes blindées des armées privées, circulant tous feux éteints ; embarcations des pirates au système d'identification coupé ; pêcheurs illégaux ; trafiquants d'essence, d'armes, de drogue et d'êtres humains. Au large de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, le Bureau maritime international (BMI) a recensé 966 marins visés en 2012 : 70 attaques ont eu lieu depuis début 2013 dans le golfe.

Pour les Français, la dernière a eu lieu le 13 juin. Le pétrolier MT Adour, a été attaqué au large du Togo, avant d'être amené dans les eaux nigérianes. Les assaillants, une dizaine d'hommes armés de kalachnikovs, n'ont pu siphonner les cuves, vides. Ils se sont rabattus sur le carburant de propulsion, mais ils ont aussi pris en otage le commandant - aussitôt relâché à terre - et son second. Celui-ci a été libéré mardi 18 au Nigeria, tandis que le Latouche-Tréville escortait le pétrolier.

Le golfe de Guinée est une des priorités de la défense française. Elle y déploie une mission de surveillance baptisée " Corymbe ". Pour la première fois, depuis début avril, une frégate de premier rang tient la permanence. Lancée en 1990, Corymbe a été conçue pour appuyer ponctuellement une opération terrestre. Mais, depuis 1996, dans cette zone d'insécurité croissante, la marine patrouille sans discontinuer, appuyée par un avion Atlantique 2, basé à Dakar.

Les choses ne sont pas présentées ainsi, mais ce navire forme bien la quatrième base française en Afrique, avec celles de Dakar, de Libreville et de Djibouti. Les intérêts français dans la zone sont majeurs. On compte 1 500 entreprises et 90 000 ressortissants dans l'Ouest subsaharien, dont la majorité dans les villes baignées par le golfe de Guinée, souligne Mathieu Le Hunsec, auteur d'un ouvrage sur la marine nationale en Afrique. D'ici provient le quart de l'approvisionnement national en pétrole. Les ports de la région sont aussi des points d'appui pour intervenir au Sahel. De Cotonou part l'uranium extrait par Areva au Niger. Par Douala passe la logistique de l'armée de terre en République centrafricaine. Depuis Dakar, l'armée soutient ses opérations au Mali.

Renseignement, coopération militaire avec les pays riverains : la mission couvre un très vaste périmètre maritime, du Sénégal au Congo. " Il s'agit de maintenir les choses à un niveau de violence à peu près maîtrisé, ne pas laisser une situation se dégrader dans la région sans qu'on en ait connaissance ", résume le commandant Xavier de Véricourt. Le

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bateau de Corymbe sera le premier à pouvoir évacuer des ressortissants en cas de crise. Le Latouche-Tréville transporte l'équipement d'un groupe commando qui pourrait être largué en mer pour le rejoindre. Les échéances électorales dans la région sont un baromètre pour l'état-major. En ligne de mire aujourd'hui : les fragilités du Nigeria et du Cameroun.

La piraterie, qui s'étend vers la Côte d'Ivoire, devient plus violente. Sa nature change, elle passe de la pure prédation économique à la prise d'otages. En témoigne l'attaque qui a visé dans la nuit du 4 au 5 juin l'Arethuse, un navire français de service offshore de la société Bourbon. " Les pirates cherchaient des expatriés ", indique le commandant du Latouche-Tréville. Deux vedettes de 20 m, une douzaine d'hommes armés en " uniforme ", très organisés : les assaillants ont ouvert le feu pour prendre possession du bord. Les expatriés ont eu le temps de se barricader dans une chambre forte.

Des marins nigérians qui n'avaient pas eu le temps de se barricader seront laissés libres. Repartis bredouilles, les assaillants ont attaqué sur leur route deux autres navires, le C-Viking et le Miss-Kayla. La frégate a repéré les deux bateaux pirates 5 km plus loin, dérivant ensemble tous feux éteints. Ils sont désormais dûment répertoriés.

Un " contrôle naval volontaire " a été institué dans le golfe de Guinée, piloté par la marine depuis Brest : le bateau de l'opération Corymbe contacte tous les navires battant pavillon français ou les bateaux " d'intérêt " qui se déclarent. La militarisation de la zone semble inévitable. " Si la mer n'est pas contrôlée, si aucune présence n'est assurée, on verra des gens s'y mettre ", note le commandant du Latouche-Tréville.

La défense américaine développe depuis 2006 un projet d'aide aux marines locales dans le cadre de l'Africa Partnership Station. Les Etats-Unis donnent des patrouilleurs à tous les pays de la région. La France mène des actions de formation similaires, notamment en Guinée-Equatoriale où elle a ouvert une école navale. Avec l'aide d'autres partenaires - Israël, Chine, Russie -, les pays côtiers du golfe de Guinée tentent de constituer une marine nationale.

La prise de conscience de cette nécessité est récente. En février 2009, le palais présidentiel de Guinée-Equatoriale, à Malabo, la capitale située sur l'île de Bioko au large du Cameroun, a été attaqué depuis la mer. Des attaques à but crapuleux ont visé de la même façon des banques à Douala (Cameroun), des supermarchés à Port-Gentil (Gabon). Pirates, mafias et groupes politiques rebelles s'imbriquent.

En mars 2010, un site de Total avait été attaqué pour la première fois par le Mouvement pour l'émancipation du delta du Niger. " Des milices apparaissent, disparaissent, mais opèrent toujours ", commente le capitaine de vaisseau Joël Manga, qui a embarqué le 9 juin avec des officiers camerounais pour un exercice à bord du Latouche-Tréville. " Nous avons d'abord un problème de pêche illégale dans les eaux territoriales, note-t-il, mais nous concentrons aussi nos forces au nord, pour éviter que les menaces issues du Nigeria, y compris Boko Haram, s'étendent. "

Un PC régional s'est mis en place à Douala, où le capitaine de vaisseau Boulingui, officier gabonais, salue de premiers " résultats positifs " au large du Cameroun. " La mer n'est plus vide. Mais nous n'avons que trois bateaux et nous avons besoin de ratisser plus large. " La coopération maritime sera au menu du sommet des chefs d'Etat d'Afrique centrale et de l'Ouest à Yaoundé, les 24 et 25 juin.

Sénégal, Liberia, Cap-Vert, Guinée-Conakry, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana... Le Latouche-Tréville aura fait une quinzaine d'escales en quatre mois de mission. Elles servent de test : si le programme est tenu, si les marins travaillent bien ensemble, c'est que le pays tient bon.

Nathalie Guibert

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Libération (França) – «Ils avaient la corde au cou» (Entrevista/Harouna Toureh)Harouna Toureh, membre du Front patriotique de résistance (FPR), était présent lors des négociations. Opposant aux rebelles touaregs, l’avocat doute de leur sincérité :Recueilli par J.-L.L.T.

L’avocat Harouna Toureh, membre du Front patriotique de résis¬tance (FPR), défenseur des milices - notamment Ganda Koy, un groupe armé d'auto défense opposé aux Touaregs - basées dans le Nord, a été convié à la table des né¬gociations. S'il a toujours cru à une signature qualifiée par lui de «préaccord», il ne croit en revanche pas «un seul instant», même après dix jours de rudes négociations, à la sincérité du Mouvement na¬tional de libération de l'Azawad (MNLA) et du Haut Conseil pour l'unité de 1'Azawad (HCUA).

Pourquoi n'avez-vous pas confiance dans la signature du MNLA et du HCUA? Cela fait vingt ans que les groupes touaregs se jouent du Mali, qu'ils trompent leur monde, qu'ils se trans-forment en sous-groupes, changent sans cesse d'acro¬nymes. Ansar ed-Dine devient le Mouvement islami¬que de l'Azawad (MIA) qui, à son tour, se fond dans le HCUA, qui va fusionner avec le MNLA. On s'y perd, dans ce labyrinthe religioso ¬politico- mafieux. Mais c'est toujours les pauvres, les moins éduqués qu'on envoie sur le terrain se faire trouer la peau: pas les chefs, très bien formés, qui parlent cinq langues. Ce sont eux qui tirent les ficelles. Ils fascinent Paris qui a pour eux les yeux de l'amour : ah, les hommes bleus...

Mais vous y croyez, à cette signature ?Le président burkinabé, Blaise Compaoré, et la com¬munauté internationale ont mis la pression sur les grou¬pes touaregs. Ils ont signé parce qu'ils avaient la corde au cou. Ils étaient fatigués, épuisés, traqués. Des man¬dats d'arrêt ont été délivrés contre certains. Mais, pour autant, ils ne respecteront pas leur propre signature, c'est ainsi. Comme ce fut le cas en 1994, lorsque nous avions pris la place de l'ar¬mée malienne dans le Nord pour faire respecter nos droits face aux pillages et à la menace sécessionniste qui pointait. Ils vont tout faire dans quelques mois pour re-venir sur cet accord. Ces chefs touaregs, qu'ils soient du MNLA ou du HCUA, ne connaissent que le rapport de force. Il leur est défavorable pour le moment, mais qui dit que dans six mois, deux ans, les armes ne vont pas encore parler dans le Nord?

La Minusma, force de l'ONU au Mali, va pourtant déployer 12 000 hommes...

Croyez-vous qu'elle puisse contrôler à elle seule un ter¬ritoire si vaste? Croyez-vous que les militaires de l'ONU vont pouvoir recenser tous les Touaregs et autres mili¬ciens en armes? Leurs ca¬ches sont déjà prévues. La communauté internationale ne connaîtra jamais le nom¬bre exact des hommes armés et de leurs combattants. Ils ont une capacité à se régéné¬rer qui m'épate. On les croit défaits, ils rejaillissent ailleurs. Plus forts, sous un nouveau nom, en recrutant dans tous les milieux. Pour preuve, mon neveu en fait partie... De ce point de vue, ils me fascinent par leur ca¬pacité de renaissance.

Mais cet accord de désarmement vous concerne aussi en tant que milices armées? Nous avons été de nombreu¬ses fois piégés par le passé. Ainsi, nous ne nous désar¬merons que lorsque les grou¬pes touaregs auront com¬mencé à le faire de manière effective, sous contrôle onu¬sien. C'est ce que j'ai expli¬qué à Blaise Compaoré. Je lui ai aussi dit que le désarmement ne signifiait pas que nous abandonnerions le mé¬tier des armes, nous conti¬nuerons à former nos jeunes. Devant cette menace mo¬mentanément affaiblie, nous, populations patriotiques du Nord, voulons devenir une sorte d'Israël, en quelque sorte des juifs du Nord, capa¬bles de nous défendre contre les agressions qui, un jour, vont à nouveau inévitablement nous retomber dessus.

Recueilli par J. -L.L.T.

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DIREITOS HUMANOS

Inter Press Services (Itália) – Highest Number of Refugees in Two DecadesBy Fabiola Ortiz

Yves Norodom, a 21-year-old refugee from the Democratic Republic of Congo living in Brazil, is one of 45.2 million displaced people around the world – the largest number in 20 years.

In its annual report Global Trends 2012: Displacement, the New 21st Century Challenge, released Wednesday, the UNHCR said 28.8 million of that total were internally displaced persons (IDPs), 15.4 million were refugees outside their own countries, and nearly one million were asylum-seekers.

Some 35.8 million people were under the UNHCR mandate by late 2012 – the second highest number on record.

On average, 23,000 people were forced to flee their homes every day in 2012.

Norodom told IPS that he fled his country, the DRC, for Kenya, and from there to the United Kingdom, before finally making his way to Brazil in 2010 without documents or belongings.

“In Congo, everyone feared for their lives,” he said. “I was struggling to survive, I did the impossible to make it. My job was to save my own skin, and I was 17 years old at the time.”

His father, a member of the opposition, had to flee the DRC nearly a decade ago, and Norodom’s 15 siblings gradually found refuge in other countries, until the family ended up spread out across the globe.

“They threatened us, and six of us landed in Brazil. Others had already found refuge, some in Africa, others in France. We had to split up,” he lamented.

One of Norodom’s biggest challenges has been learning Portuguese. “I had never heard the language before. It took me six months to learn the basics, and a year to speak it a little better.”

He is currently unemployed, but he dreams of one day returning to school and attending the public university in Rio de Janeiro to study chemical engineering.

“I wouldn’t say I’m very happy, but at least I’m alive and I’m ok,” he said.

Norodom is one of 4,715 refugees of 76 nationalities in Brazil, according to figures from CONARE, the government’s national refugee agency. Of that total, 2,012 receive assistance from the UNHCR.

“They are people who belong to ethnic groups fleeing for reasons of thought or conflicts. Our challenge is to offer the refugees better conditions to adapt and integrate,” said CONARE vice-president João Guilherme Granja.

Brazil has adequate laws on refugees and offers them the same public services that are enjoyed by the country’s citizens. But this country of 198 million people receives a far smaller number of refugees than much poorer countries like Pakistan, which currently hosts over 1.6 million refugees.

At the launch of the Global Trends report ahead of World Refugee Day (Jun. 20), UNHCR representative in Brazil Andrés Ramírez said armed conflict was still the main cause of forced displacement.

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He said more than half of the world’s refugees came from five countries: Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Syria.

On average, war and other crises drove one person from their home every 4.1 seconds, last year, Ramírez said. “The political will to prevent conflicts has been lacking at a global level,” he added. “The refugee issue is a human tragedy of enormous magnitude.”

As it has for the past three decades, Afghanistan headed the list, accounting for one of every four of the 10.5 million refugees under the UNHCR mandate, or 2.5 million. It was followed by Somalia (1.1 million), Iraq (746,700), and Syria (471,400).

The report says about four-fifths of the world’s refugees flee to neighbouring countries.

The list of countries hosting the largest refugee populations includes Pakistan, the DRC, Kenya, Iran, Syria and Kenya.

In 2012, Brazil received over 1,200 requests for asylum, and the number will be bigger this year, Ramírez said.

“We have more requests now because of the crises around the world,” the UNCHR representative said. “Brazil is a country of continental dimensions and could receive more refugees, but it is far away from the places where the humanitarian crises are occurring.”

The rise in the cost of living in Brazil’s cities and the day-to-day difficulties in making a living faced by a large part of the population also affect the quality of life of refugees, said Aline Thuller, with the Catholic NGO Caritas.

“A majority of the refugees live in favelas (shantytowns) and other poor neighbourhoods. They have the same rights to public services and face the same difficulties as Brazilians. Most of them work in the informal sector,” she told IPS.

“There is still a lot of prejudice” against refugees, Thuller said.

In the past, the refugees assisted by Caritas were mainly Angolan men, who were fleeing forced recruitment during the 27-year civil war in that former Portuguese colony in southern Africa.

But today, many pregnant women and entire families reach Rio de Janeiro as refugees.

The state of Rio de Janeiro, which receives the second-largest number of refugees after São Paulo, is in the final stages of designing a state-wide refugee policy.

Under the new policy, “working groups will be created by thematic area and will organise practical activities, to facilitate refugees’ access to basic rights,” Thuller said.

TEMAS ECONÔMICOS, FINANCEIROS E COMERCIAIS

Reuters (Reino Unido) – Brazil inflation erodes Rousseff 's popularity – pollGrowing discontent over rising prices in Brazil has dragged down President Dilma Rousseff's approval rating from record highs, pollsters said on Wednesday, adding that her popularity could deteriorate further if inflation is not tamed.

The CNI/Ibope opinion poll was taken before the start of a current wave of nationwide protests against inflation and other ills including corruption and poor public services.

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Rousseff's approval rating fell 8 percentage points to 55 percent, according to the poll, the third in two weeks to show inflation hurting the popularity of the leftist ruler, who is expected to run for re-election next year.

"If the government cannot revert the inflationary trend and the economy fails to recover then very clearly" her popularity will continue to suffer, said Renato da Fonseca, executive manager of research at the National Industries Confederation (CNI).

The drop in Rousseff's popularity comes at a delicate moment in Brazil. A rise in transportation fares across several major cities in recent weeks, which is likely to push inflation even higher this month, sparked street protests that grew into massive nationwide demonstrations against the poor quality of transportation, education, health and other grievances.

Da Fonseca said that it was still too early to measure the impact the protests will have on Rousseff's approval ratings.

Public sentiment on Rousseff's government in areas like education, health and public security remained largely stable in June from March, the poll showed.

The disapproval of her administration's handling of inflation, however, rose 10 percentage points to 57 percent, the biggest jump among the nine areas analyzed in the survey.

Annual inflation through mid-June is expected to pierce the ceiling of the official target of 6.5 percent even as Latin America's largest economy fails to recovery from two years of sub par growth.

The overall disapproval of her administration rose from 7 percent three months ago to 13 percent, its highest since Rousseff took office in January 2011.

Although her popularity remains very high, Rousseff trails her predecessor and political mentor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who at the same period during his second term enjoyed an approval rating of 68 percent, the poll showed.

In recent speeches, Rousseff has emphasized her government's commitment to fight inflation at all costs to protect Brazilian's purchasing power.

Rousseff said on Tuesday that she is listening closely to the grievances of protestors, acknowledging the need to better public services.

The CNI/Ibope poll, which was conducted between June 8 and 11, interviewed 2,002 people and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Alonso Soto and Carl Patchen, editing by Reese Ewing).

Reuters (Reino Unido) – Brasil vai retomar crescimento robusto, diz Tombini—jornalSakari Suoninen

O Brasil será capaz de superar a atual desaceleração econômica e retornará a um crescimento robusto, enquanto segue de olho nas saídas de capital, disse o presidente do Banco Central, Alexandre Tombini, segundo um diário alemão.

O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro cresceu 1,9 por cento no primeiro trimestre deste ano em relação a igual período de 2012. Tombini disse que, embora seja improvável ver um crescimento como os 7,5 por cento de 2010, é esperada uma aceleração sobre o atual ritmo.

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"Uma média de crescimento de 4 a 4,5 por cento é factível", ele disse em entrevista ao diário alemão Handelsblatt.

Tombini disse que o país tem sido bem-sucedido em enfrentar as instabilidades das entradas de capital e precisa agora fazer a mesma coisa quando os dólares começam a sair.

"Agora é preciso cuidar que as saídas de capital e a normalização não levem a novas instabilidades", acrescentou.

Tombini também disse que o BC segue com foco no combate à inflação.

Financial Times (Reino Unido) – Royalty rise tests Brazilian mining relationsJoe Leahy

Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff on Tuesday launched a mining bill that proposes to potentially double royalties in a move that will test strained relations with investors.

But the long-awaited proposal, which will now go before Congress, was less onerous than some in the industry had feared when negotiations on it began four years ago during the global commodities supercycle.

"[Royalties] will now comprise of quotas of up to 4 per cent of mining companies' revenues," Ms Rousseff said in a ceremony to launch the bill. "This will give an important increase to the budgets of states and municipalities that are host to mining activities."

Relations between Ms Rousseff's government and investors have become more strained as efforts by the government to cut taxes and protect some industries have failed to revive Brazil's former rapid growth rates.

There were also fears that Brazil might belatedly seek to cash in on the mining boom through the bill even though the industry is slowing in line with Chinese economic growth.

"We are a long way from the prices we had in 2011," Murilo Ferreira, the chief executive officer of Vale, the world's largest iron ore exporter and Brazil's biggest miner, was quoted as saying in newspaper Valor Economico.

He said the bill represented a significant increase in royalties at a time when countries overseas were lowering such duties on iron ore and nickel.

Even though Brazil had one of the largest reserves of mineral resources in the world, between the four largest miners only Vale had significant investments in the country. "There must be something wrong there," he said.

However, the top rate being proposed is only one-third of the basic rate being charged by Australian states, Reuters reported.

The bill also does not include a windfall profits tax, a proposal that drove Canada's Kinross Gold last week to abandon a project in Ecuador.

"For the past several months, the government has been signalling a more moderate stance towards the sector," said Eurasia Group in a research note on the mining bill.

"This moderation is driven mainly by Brasilia's unease with weaker global market conditions, which have exacerbated Vale's troubles and deepened the economic team's concern with Brazil's deteriorating trade balance."

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It warned, however, that the law could face turbulence in Congress, where politicians representing mining and non mining states will seek to gain a higher share of the industries royalties for their constituencies.

In a sign of a better than expected market reception for the bill, Vale shares closed up 2.46 per cent at R$29.10.

Les Echos (França) – Fed: possible décélération du « QE3 » Karl De Meyer Bureau de New York

La Réserve fédérale maintient le rythme de ses achats d’actifs à 85 milliards par mois.

Wall Street a perdu 1,35% en clôture. Ben Bernanke s’est livré hier à l’exercice de clarification attendu par les marchés. Au cours de sa conférence de presse, il a expliqué que la Réserve fédérale pourrait : « ralentir d’ici à la fin de l’année le rythme mensuel de ses achats de bons du Trésor et d’actifs immobiliers titrisés, sous réserve que les données économiques soient conformes à nos prévisions et, si les données restent alignées sur nos projections, ces achats pourraient se terminer mi-2014.» Le président de la banque centrale s’est toutefois montré d’une prudence de Sioux. Soucieux de ne pas provoquer le même émoi que le mois dernier, quand il avait laissé entendre un possible repli précoce de l’assouplissement quantitatif en cours, il a assuré aux « foyers et aux entreprises que la politique monétaire continuera à soutenir la reprise, même au moment où la croissance et l’emploi repartent ». Il a répété qu’un laps de temps « considérable » s’écoulera entre la fin du QE et le relèvement des taux directeurs, pas attendu avant 2015.

En clair : la Fed pourrait de nouveau accélérer les rachats d’actifs si besoin était. Pour l’instant, la banque centrale va continuer son QE dans les mêmes termes, a indiqué hier le comité de politique monétaire. Les achats de bons du Trésor et d’actifs immobiliers titrisés se feront toujours au rythme de 85 milliards de dollars par mois.

Les marchés attendaient avec nervosité, hier, les déclarations de Ben Bernanke. Depuis un mois, les investisseurs gambergent sur le calendrier et le rythme du repli du QE entamé en septembre dernier. En mai, devant le Congrès, le président de la Fed a semé le doute en déclarant que le comité de politique monétaire pourrait commencer à ralentir le programme d’assouplissement quantitatif actuel « au cours de ses prochaines réunions ».

Ben Bernanke ne rempilera pasDepuis, les marchés s’inquiètent. Ils estiment que le fort rebond des marchés actions, début 2013, est artificiellement gonflé par les politiques accommodantes menées par toutes les grandes banques centrales. Si la Fed commence à sortir de son QE, le cours des actions risque de chuter. Les taux longs ont commencé à remonter, après une longue période où ils ont été exceptionnellement bas. Ben Bernanke a rappelé hier que, a priori, la banque centrale ne vendrait pas les titres acquis ces dernières années, pour des centaines de milliards de dollars, mais les garderait dans son bilan jusqu’à leur maturité.

Barack Obama a en outre confirmé cette semaine ce qu’on supputait depuis longtemps : à la fin de son second mandat, Ben Bernanke ne rempilera pas à la tête de la Fed. «Ben Bernanke a fait un travail extraordinaire», a salué le président américain sur la chaîne de télévision PBS, « mais il est déjà resté bien plus longtemps qu’il ne le voulait ou qu’il était supposé rester ». Parmi les noms qui circulent pour lui succéder, la favorite semble être Janet Yellen, actuelle vice-présidente, une colombe qui privilégie, dans le double mandat de la Fed, l’emploi sur l’inflation. Sont aussi évoqués Larry Summers et Tim Geithner, deux anciens secrétaires au Trésor.

OUTROS TEMAS

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The New York Times (EUA) – U.S. Accuses 3 Countries of Abetting Human TraffickingBy STEVEN LEE MYERS

The State Department on Wednesday accused Russia, China and Uzbekistan of continuing to abet human trafficking and forced labor, raising the possibility that they could face sanctions at a time when President Obama has tried to maintain relations with each on strategic issues.

All three countries fell to the lowest ranking in the State Department’s annual report on trafficking, joining 16 other nations that the United States argues have failed to combat or have been complicit in a practice estimated to claim as many as 27 million victims at any given time.

Mr. Obama, who last year announced stronger measures against trafficking, including new rules involving federal contracts overseas, now has up to 90 days to decide whether the three will be subjected to sanctions that include an end to many forms of foreign aid and the withholding of American support in institutions like the World Bank.

In the past, the White House has routinely waived potential sanctions for countries with important strategic value to the United States, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, which the latest report again cited for poor records on forced labor, child labor, prostitution and, in Yemen’s case, the remnants of chattel slavery.

Countries clearly at odds with American policy — including Cuba and North Korea — have been subject to sanctions.

A White House spokeswoman, Caitlin Hayden, would not comment on whether the president would impose sanctions on Russia, China and Uzbekistan.

Advocacy groups welcomed the State Department’s decision to downgrade the three, but they also criticized what they described as inconsistent imposition of sanctions.

“The State Department has demonstrated that it is prepared to sanction even the most powerful countries in the world if they don’t meet the standards set out under U.S. law,” said John Sifton, the Asia advocacy director of Human Rights Watch. “The question for the White House is whether they’re prepared to execute the sanctions.”

World Vision, a Christian humanitarian group, noted that 10 countries are cited for deploying child soldiers in the past year, and that seven of them received American military aid, including Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen. The group also cited Syria, where the government and rebels have been accused of using children in their ranks; the administration recently announced that it would begin to arm the rebels, though only after careful vetting.

The State Department’s rankings are required by law, and a recent amendment by Congress forced the administration’s hand in cases where countries were on a “watch list” for more than four consecutive years.

Russia and China had both been on the watch list since that category was introduced in 2004, and the report cited inconsistent laws and enforcement. In Russia, it said, an estimated one million people are subjected to forced labor in many industries, including construction, with the complicity of officials. Uzbekistan, the report said, routinely forces thousands of adults and children to join in the autumn cotton harvest.

David Abramowitz, director of the Alliance to End Slavery and Trafficking, said that even without sanctions, the report’s rankings had an impact on countries. “I wouldn’t underestimate the stigma,” he said.

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