Como se Preparar para Lidar com o Imprevisível

7/31/2019 Como se Preparar para Lidar com o Imprevisvel

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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show

October 2011 [email protected]

How to Prepare for DealingHow to Prepare for Dealing

With the UnpredictableWith the Unpredictable oror

Dick MorleyOctober 2011

[email protected]

Examples

Science

Understanding

And some stories


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A bookThe way the world works

Unpredictable

Big and bad

Not preventable

Even if we have perfect

hindsight

Galloping Gerties final moments

TWA 800

Denver baggage

Toyota

Corvette ship

Pompeii

The Tacoma Narrows bridge

Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland

Thoku earthquake and tsunami

2010 Copiap mining accident

Late-2000s recession

September 11 attacks

Petrobas P-36

Great famine (Ireland)

iPad


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Does it make more trucks?Does it help the economy?

Will it reduce lifetime costs?

Chaos (Complex Adaptive Systems CAS)

Traffic

Soccer

Loosely coupled sets

Ford Motors

Behavior analysis

MedicalManagement

The dogs

The cat

The humans

COFES

Soccer games


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Small and fragile wins

Dont drive a school bus blindfolded

Dont use incentive awards

Dont give children sticks of dynamite

Even if the package has a warning sticker

Its OK to be smart

Freedom is an illusion

Globalization here to stay

Cost is irrelevant

Turn on a dime

Technology generates wealth

Deal with it!

Best is the enemy of good

Lawyers & accountants give

advice, not permission

Your business is a computer

peripheral

Smart everything

Instant gratification is too slow

Control of the details is not

control of business


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You are the CEO of your lifeFirst, you gotta make a hole

Spend less than you earn

Do you have blue windows?

You get it all, not just the good parts

Sales process

Venture capital

Angels

We harvested the black swan eggs

For 30 years

White swan?


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Reducing the future unknowns

Shrinking the fat tails

Preemptive asset management (PAM)


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We overestimate our abilities and underestimate what

can go wrong

We think we can manage risk by predicting extreme

events

We are convinced that studying the past will help us manage

risk

We dont listen to advice about what we shouldnt do

We assume that risk can be measure by standard deviation

We dont appreciate that what is mathematically equivalent

isnt psychologically so

A revolution not of technology but a revolution of ideas

Contrary to social-science wisdom, almost no discovery

or technologies of note came from design and

planning they were just black swans


10/11



Lean is badDont be shocked

Safe room

1938 storm

Asset available

Pick a new road no fixation (new normal)

Rock in the road

Duct tape and WD-40 / multitool, ties, flashlight

Dont blame other people

Decoupled systems

Small sizes

KISS (not complexity)

Assume the worst

Math models are flawed

Use the right brain

Read The Black Swan

Adequate reserves

Small interconnected systems

You can survive the black swans

New understanding

Think preemptive management

New tools coming


11/11



CartooncourtesyofAutomation.com

Como se Preparar para Lidar com o Imprevisível

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