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Robert Sheaffer:

Prepared Talk for the Smithsonian UFO Symposium, Sept. 6, 1980

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Método de gerar e melhorar modelos

O conjunto (coerente) dos modelos

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Método de gerar e melhorar modelos

Sistema Modelo

Observação Previsão

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Método de gerar e melhorar modelos

Sistema Modelo

Observação Previsão

“Alternate Reality” ”Paralel dimensions”Como modelar?

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Método de gerar e melhorar modelos“Alternate Reality” ”Paralel dimensions”Como modelar?

O conjunto (coerente) dos modelos

Manter a coerência:Antigravidade ou física moderna?

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O conjunto (coerente) dos modelos

Manter a coerência:Antigravidade ou física moderna?

Revisão de crenças. Alguma hipótese tem que ser eliminada ou substituída.

OVNIS

If UFOs were indeed a real phenomenon, it is extremely difficult to imagine how they could have thus far infallibly avoided unambiguous detection. [...]If UFOs were real objects, as is claimed, and if they were sometimes seen on radar, the radar sightings would be far more consistent that what we have today. [...]Hynek expresses the problem well when he says that UFOs seem to be 'localized' in time and space.

OVNIS

Now one can, of course, come up with all kinds of bizarre reasons why UFOs could be "localized" in space: and time. Perhaps this is the characteristic of an alternate reality, along with Santa Claus encounters and Easter Bunny eggs.

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Método de gerar e melhorar modelos

Sistema Modelo

Observação Previsão

Falsificabilidade

Roswell

Dois modelos alternativos:

Balão do projecto Mogul

Nave de extraterrestres

Roswell

Dois modelos alternativos:

Diferenças entre os argumentos?

Roswell

Dois modelos alternativos:

Diferenças entre os argumentos?

Tipos de razões:“Apparently the Air Force could tell him nothing more about Roswell, because "someone" had removed and destroyed all reports connected with the incident in the files of 1947 “

Roswell

Dois modelos alternativos:

Diferenças entre os argumentos?

Tipos de razões:“"When the wind information is coupled with the similarities in the debris [...] to the materials used in our balloon flight trains, it appears to me that it would be difficult to exclude NYU Flight 4 as a likely source”

Roswell

Dois modelos alternativos:

Diferenças entre os argumentos?

Tipos de razões:

Falta de evidências

Evidências

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Sistema Modelo

Observação Previsão

Roswell

Derision and suppression of facts have played a big role in the story of Roswell right from the beginning

The Russians suspected--not without reason--that most of the "stealth technology" of the "invisible" bombers of the USA had been developed from research on crashed UFOs.

Roswell

President Clinton too may soon learn the truth about the Roswell incident.

According to inside rumors Steven Spielberg is making a big movie for that date, which would also include original material.

O Milagre do Sol