BIOMETEOROLOGIA HUMANA: ANÁLISE DOS

EFEITOS DE VARIÁVEIS AMBIENTAIS (METEOROLÓGICAS, CONFORTO TÉRMICO E

POLUIÇÃO ATMOSFÉRICA) E DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA POPULAÇÃO GERIÁTRICA DA

CIDADE DE SÃO PAULO

Projeto FAPESP 2010/1089-5

Fábio Luiz T. Gonçalves; Wilson Jacob Filho DCA/IAG/USP e FM/USP

Coordenadores Equipe com Pesquisadores Principais

Márcia Alucci; Denise Duarte; Leonardo M. Monteiro; FAU/USP Beatriz Trezza, Alexandre Busse FM

Arlindo Tribess POLI Tercio Ambrizzi IAG

Ricardo Cassilhas UNIFESP

Resultados preliminares do Projeto de Biometeorologia

geriátrica

OBJETIVOS

Este é um projeto multidisciplinar, visando estudar o impacto na população geriátrica, i. e., acima de 65 anos de variáveis meteorológicas associadas ao conforto térmico humano, referentes à atual climatologia e às mudanças climáticas na região metropolitana da cidade de São Paulo. Testes com temperaturas de 24oC (padrão) e 32oC foram efetuados. No momento são de 24oC e 16oC. Esta temática está dentro do âmbito de estudos biometeorológicos, na subdivisão humana, baseado na ISB (International Society of Biometeorology). De acordo com a sociedade, os efeitos ambientais são considerados meteorotrópicos, onde uma ou mais variáveis ambientais (no caso, meteorológicos, climáticos ou mesmo de poluição atmosférica) afetam um ou mais indivíduos de uma população

BIOMETEOROLOGIA HUMANA: conforto térmico

as Si + aL Li - L + M - lE - q - G = 0

Residential Buildings’ Thermal Performance and Comfort for the Elderly under Climate Changes Context in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

Conclusions The subject of this paper is the residential buildings’ thermal performance and comfort in the city of São Paulo, taking into account the climate changes predicted for the next decades and the greater vulnerability of the elderly related to the environmental conditions. The aim is the evaluation of thermal performance and comfort in residential buildings under the RCP 8.5 scenario from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report – IPCC AR5, as well as under the heat wave occurred in January and February 2014 and January of 2015, as cited above. There is no certainty about the climate changes that will, in fact, take place, or about the most suitable comfort index to be adopted for the Brazilian (or São Paulo’s) situation. Therefore, the two climate scenario groups and the two adaptive comfort indexes employed sought to investigate the implications of climate change to the dwellings’ comfort condition. The comparative study of the measured weather scenario group Past (1972), Present (2013) and Present under Heat Wave (2014) aimed to reveal the heat wave effect on the thermal performance of residential buildings in a recent period. As stated, the results were analyzed separately: simulated data scenario weather files (Present, Near Future, Intermediate Future and Far Future), and measured data scenario weather files (Past, Present and Present under Heat Wave). According to the adaptive criteria, one would expect that, as São Paulo climate warms, people will adapt and become accustomed to the new conditions. Nevertheless, applying De Dear et al. (1997) / ASHRAE 55 (2013)’s comfort range, a progressive reduction of the comfort condition tendency is clear over time, in all cases. Besides that, applying both adaptive comfort indexes (De Dear et al. (1997) / ASHRAE 55 (2013) and Humphreys et al. (2010)), there was a slight reduction in the cold zone and a greater increase in the hot zone. It is observed that at the occurrence of heat waves, the unexpected and persistent increase in air temperature tends to make thermal discomfort even more pronounced. The combination of both phenomena, climate change and heat wave, may lead to a potential effect of heat discomfort, making thermal conditions inhospitable for human comfort, besides implying a higher energy consumption for air conditioning. Comparing the two adaptive comfort indexes adopted for this study, due to its higher correlation between external temperature and internal operative temperature, Humphreys et al. (2010) index tends to be more adaptable to internal operative temperature variations than the De Dear et al. (1997) / ASHRAE 55 (2013) index. Even so, the heat sensation

tendency is observed in both comfort models applied, but there is lots of uncertainty about the limits of people adaptation.

As an example of the combination of climate change and energy issues possible consequences, the January and February 2014 heat wave caused energy consumption increases due to air conditioning demand, especially for residential use (Brasil, 2014a; 2014b), which, historically, is not significant in Brazil. Once installed, the equipment will be used whenever there are higher temperatures (Wu, Pett, 2006), which means that if there is no mitigation and adaptation strategies for buildings, consumption patterns will continue to rise. Therefore, energy efficiency objectives for the future (and even present) weather scenarios require attention to the building design and operation, specially the residential ones. For example, free-running strategies and mixed-mode operation can be adopted for the user thermal comfort with less dependence on energy consumption and avoiding the intensification of the urban heating. Different scenarios should be also evaluated. Finally, it stands out the need for climate change scenarios adoption for designing new buildings and refurbishments; so, it will be possible a more accurate assessment of the complete building operation lifecycle phase as well as allowing energy policies future impacts evaluation, labelling programs and other actions towards energy efficiency and building sustainability.

A idade média da amostra foi de 73,28 anos. As temperaturas auriculares e axilares aumentaram significativamente após a exposição ao calor de 32oC, sendo que as diferenças médias encontradas foram de 0,55 e 0,43oC respectivamente. Não foram observadas diferenças significativas entre quaisquer medidas individuais de desempenho ou no escore composto global quando comparamos o desempenho cognitivo sob as duas temperaturas experimentais. Na análise de interação, somente os níveis de umidade registrados durante o protocolo de exposição ao calor e a frequência da prática de exercícios modificaram significativamente o efeito da temperatura sobre o desempenho cognitivo. Os sujeitos expostos a maior umidade relativa do ar no protocolo de calor e os voluntários menos ativos apresentaram piora no desempenho cognitivo na sessão a 32oC. Estes achados foram confirmados num modelo de regressão linear totalmente ajustado. Conclusão: A análise principal mostrou que o desempenho cognitivo de idosos com boa funcionalidade não sofreu efeito deletério da exposição ao calor. No entanto, os voluntários expostos ao calor mais úmido e aqueles que relataram menor frequência de exercício físico apresentaram pior desempenho na sessão de calor que na de controle. As variáveis sócio-demográficas como idade, gênero, escolaridade e cor não tiveram influência na susceptibilidade ao estresse térmico.

O efeito da exposição ao calor sobre o desempenho cognitivo de idosos: um estudo controlado [tese]. São Paulo: Faculdade de Medicina,

Universidade de São Paulo; 2014.

Dra. Beatriz Trezza Orientador: Dr. Wilson Jacob Filho

Termovisor: em IV

Imagens do termovisor de um voluntario idoso antes do teste (média de 28,1oC) e depois do teste com calor (média de 30,5oC). Questionário não mostrou que o voluntario tenha achado a diferença desconfortável.

CONFORTO TÉRMICO E AS MUDANÇAS CLIMATICAS

Present and future climate projections of Apparent Temperature index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo - Brazil

RAFAEL BATISTA

The simulated data were divided into bins and their thresholds for each of the three periods suggests an overall warming trend in the MRSP that is more intense beginning in the second half of the twenty-first century. The simulated thresholds for 2010-2040 and 2070-2100 are not used in the bins distribution of AT because this would prevent the comparison. Based on 1960-1990 thresholds, the AT scenario simulations emphasize the future mischaracterization of the MRSP climate. As a consequence, a regular year which used to have separate seasons will display basically two periods: a warm season (September to April) and a mild season (May to August). This was also demonstrated by Marengo (2006) through simulations forced by the A2 and B2 scenarios, indicating a positive temperature anomaly that changes the climate of southeastern Brazil toward a tropical pattern. These changes are even more noticeable from the perspective of the seasonal trend index. It presents an increase of hot days in all four seasons, particularly spring, summer and autumn. It means that regular years in the future will have a larger number of hot days (in which AT≥22.6°C) corroborating Marengo (2006) and Nobre et al. (2010). This increase in AT is also observed during winter, with a weaker increase in hot days and a significant reduction in cold days. These changes in the Bin1 were expected since winter presents a higher number of cold days. These changes also indicate the possibility that events that do not usually happen in the MRSP start to occur, such as heat waves. As pointed above, the population of the MRSP is not used to experiencing heat wave episodes. However, if they occur within a certain frequency, several "new" problems will arise, since the number of elderly people is increasing in MRSP, following a national trend, in addition to the fact that the Brazilian health system already has many problems (mostly caused by overcrowding) even without the heat wave occurrences. Another aspect to be considered is that such events will have a tremendous impact on the population that lives in densely-populated residential neighborhoods with lower social development, such as slums.

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MAXIMAS ACIMA DE 35oC no IAG-Agua Funda