Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa...

____________________________________________________________________________________________ L. Madureira, 2016 - Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum

Workshop Economia & Biodiversidade UTAD, Vila Real

24 de Abril, 2016

Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da

Europa Mediterrânica: o seu valor para o cidadão comum

Lívia Madureira

Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD)

CETRAD – Centro de Estudos Transdisciiplinares para o Desenvolvimento

Vila Real, Portugal Email - [email protected]


Apresentação sintetizada do estudo

Feasibility Study on the Valuation of Public Goods and Externalities in EU Agriculture [PGaE-VALUE]

A study Commissioned by:

European Commission

JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

Available as on-line publication

Madureira L., Santos J. L., Ferreira A., Guimarães H., 2013. Feasibility Study on the Valuation

of Public Goods and Externalities in EU Agriculture. Edited by Maria Espinosa e Sergio

Gomez y Paloma, European Commission, EUR 26135 – Joint Research Centre – Institute for

Prospective Technological Studies. EUR – Scientific and Technical Research series – ISSN

1831-9424 (online). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.


Need for values of changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad scales

• Agricultural landscapes are specific combinations of: • farming systems,

• woodlands,

• semi-natural vegetation,

• rivers, and other non-agricultural elements

• … have specific structure, functioning and processes, and

• … deliver multiple, highly valued goods and services: • cultural amenities,

• biodiversity conservation,

• water quality and availability,

• climate stability,

• resilience to fire,

• resilience to flooding


Need for values of changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad scales

• Agricultural landscapes and the bundles of public goods they deliver are often driven at broad macro-regional scales by changes in agricultural and trade policies;

• human well-being is thus significantly affected;

• these welfare impacts are largely not accounted for in policy decision-making at these broad supranational scales.

• The need to avoid this policy failure led to an increasing demand for the economic valuation of changes in multiple public goods of agriculture at broad, supranational scales.


Goals and challenges of a broad-scale valuation methodological framework

A framework to value changes in multiple PG of agriculture at broad, supranational scales

To address this policy demand, the required valuation framework needs to:

• be empirically-based and policy-relevant (focused on the available

policy options at a broad scale)

• be understandable by the general public of many involved

countries whose values are to be surveyed

• provide context-rich valuation scenarios - essential for people to

engage in economic trade-offs, instead of giving symbolic

reactions to abstract scenarios


Development of the valuation framework (5 steps)

Identification, delimitation and description of macro-regions (MR) at EU level

• Data for landscape and farm structure variables

• (a) Cluster analysis; (b)Factorial followed by cluster analysis

Describing and mapping PG

• Search for PG indicators

• Mapping PG built on indicators at NUT3 level

Identifying representative bundle of PG of each macro-region

• Cross tabling PG with macro-regions

• Analyzing the PG profile of each macro-region (cobweb diagrams)

Describing macro-regional agri-environmental problems (MRAEP)

• Core narratives (valuation context)

• Selection of core PG (start point for attributes selection)


Development of the valuation framework

Designing choice scenarios at macro-regional scale

• Selection of representative bundle

• Which PG are going to be valued related to each selected MRAEP (attributes selection)

• How to describe them (attributes communication to general public)

• Changes in PG in each bundle (attributes level)

Describing macro-regional agri-environmental problems

• Core narratives (valuation context)

• Selection of core PG (start point for attributes selection)


Macro-regions: types of agro-ecological landscape infrastructure delivering different bundles of PG


Core PG in each MR


MRAEP: How they are they defined? To deliver the valuation contexts and scenarios

• Delimiting MR;

• Identifying core the bundle of PG currently delivered by that agro-ecological infrastructure;

• Setting the trends, i.e., the expected direction of future change in land use (e.g. farmland abandonment or agricultural intensification)

• Identifying the expected effects of such change on the delivery of PG in that MR


Correspond to a core dynamic trend in a macro-region Farmland abandonment in the Mediterranean Uplands macro-region

This trend entails changes in the provision of core Public goods in the macro-region

Cultural services of landscape, farmland biodiversity, soil erosion control and fire resilience

Policy-on scenario promotes/avoids changes in the provision level of (some) those PG (that can be valued against a policy-off scenario)

Payments for the core public goods (that can be influence by the policy)

The macro-regional agri-environmental problem defined as valuation problem

From MRAEP to the choice scenarios for PG change valuation


Survey design for the MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”

Example of MRAEP selected for choice modelling survey


3. Design of Choice Modelling survey

Non-monetary attributes: selection and description – “farmland in Mediterranean Upland and its benefits to the common-citizen” https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxwDYXu1Z82lMUhSakJXY0lIZlU/view?usp=s

haring

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxwDYXu1Z82lMUhSakJXY0lIZlU/view?usp=sharing





Non-monetary attributes: selection and description – “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland and its losses to the

common-citizen”


Design of Choice Modelling survey

Non-monetary attributes: selection and description – PG programmes



Programmes ensuring supply of PG, were offered as follow:

To pay farmers to maintain:

• (a) all of these services or;

• (b) only some of them (e.g., only conservation of landscape or fire risk reduction).

• (a) to apply each programme in all the region of Mediterranean Uplands (100% of region) or;

• to apply each programme in only half of the region of Mediterranean Uplands (50% of region).

Non-monetary attributes levels– Attributes levels for MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean

Upland”



Non-monetary attributes levels– Attributes levels for MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean

Upland”



Non-monetary attributes levels– Policy-on (reference levels) and policy-off (baseline) levels

• Applying each programme in 100% of the area of the region will ensure the maintenance of the existing traditional landscape, preserve all currently endangered species and prevent the increase of the risk of erosion and fire risk compared to the current situation.

• Applying each programme in 50% of the area of the region will ensure maintenance of the existing traditional landscape, preserve all currently endangered species and prevent the increase of the risk of erosion and fire risk compared to the current situation, but only in 50% of the area in the region.



Monetary attribute – Payment vehicle, amounts and duration of payments

• This cost (programmes implementation costs) have to be support by the European citizens, including you, by higher taxes, or creating special rates on products or about visitors to this region,

• The amounts, duration of payments and unit that pays

Increase in tax payments per household (annually for 5 years)

3 € 12 € 21 € 39 €



Choice set: number of alternatives (baseline and reference levels) – MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”

• Example of choice set


4. Test survey at pilot scale

Three samples for 300 valid interviews each have been selected

a) Face-to-face interviews with CAPI (computer assisted personal interviews), carry out in the Metropolitan area of Lisbon (PT)

b) Panel web-base (one-line) administrated for national population of Portugal

c) Panel web-base (one-line) administrated for national population of Germany

Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for–Samples MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”

Criteria for sampling selection:

1. Stratified samples have been selected

a) Age, gender

b) & c) Age, Gender, NUTS2

2. Individual with 18 years old in charge of household expenses




Sample composition: Gender

Sample composition: Age

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

FTF Portugal Online Portugal Online Germany

pers

on

s

Female

Male

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 >65

pe

rso

ns FTF Portugal

Online Portugal

Online Germany




Sample composition: Education




Sample composition: Household Income (monthly in euros)



Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for– Preliminary results MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”

Preliminary estimates for MNL model Basic specification (no-interactions, neither socio-demographics)

Attribute Estimates for MNL model

F2F Portugal (Lisbon metrop.

area)

Web-based Portugal

Web-based Germany

Cultural landscape (CL) 0.6212*** 0.7019*** 0.5804***

Farmland biodiversity (FB) 0.6991*** 1.1093*** 0.9550***

Soil quality (SQ) 0.6798*** 0.5535*** 0.3608***

Fire resilience (FR) 1.1521*** 0.8617*** 0.4291***

Price (tax increase) -0.02746*** -0.02380*** -0.02132***

Log-Likelihood function -1317.516 -1317.117 -1449.332

No Observations 1500 1500 1500

Note:. ***, **, * denote significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level, respectively



Test at pilot level of the questionnaire for– Preliminary results MRAEP “farmland abandonment in Mediterranean Upland”

Preliminary estimates for attributes WTP WTP obtained from MNL basic specification (no-interactions, neither socio-demographics)

Attribute WTP Estimates (basic MNL model)

F2F Portugal (Lisbon metrop. area)

Web-based Portugal

Web-based Germany

Cultural landscape (CL) 23 € 30 € 27 €

[16 – 29] [21 – 38] [19 -36]

Farmland biodiversity (FB) 26€ 47 € 45 €

[19 -32] [36 -58] [34 -56]

Soil quality (SQ) 25 € 23 € 17 €

[18 – 32] [16 – 30] [10 -24]

Fire resilience (FR) 42 € 36 € 20 €

[32 - 50] [27 -45] [13 – 28]

Note: Confidence Intervals (95% confidence level) in brackets


TAKE HOME MESSAGES

Common citizen preferences towards farmland biodiversity and

other environmental public goods of agriculture can be obtained

for EU programmes at a macro-regional scale

The values are obtained based on a choice regarding a change:

policy-on vs. policy-off scenario

There are challenges on how to communicate those changes to

the common citizen

Why taking into account the common citizen preferences

towards biodiversity and other environmental public good into

the funding decisions?


OBRIGADA!

Lívia Madureira

UTAD -Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro

DESG –Departmento de Economia, Sociologia e Gestão

CETRAD – Centro de Estudos Transdisciplinares para o Desenvolvimento

UTAD/DESG

Quinta de Prados, 5000 801 Vila Real, Portugal

Email - [email protected]

Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa...

Documents

Transcript of Biodiversidade nas paisagens agrícolas tradicionais da Europa...