Aplicacao Heuristica Das Teorias Explanatorias Em RI
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European Journal of International
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DOI: 10.1177/1354066109344008published online 22 February 2010European Journal of International Relations
Adam R. C HumphreysThe heuristic application of explanatory theories in International Relations
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Article
Corresponding author:
Adam R.C. Humphreys, Department of Politics and IR, University of Oxford and Nuffield College, Manor
Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ, UK.
E-mail: [email protected]
The heuristic applicationof explanatory theories inInternational Relations
Adam R.C. HumphreysUniversity of Oxford and Nuffield College, UK
Abstract
Explanatory theorists increasingly insist that their theories are useful even though they cannotbe deductively applied. But if so, then how do such theories contribute to our understanding
of international relations? I argue that explanatory theories are typically heuristically applied:theorists accounts of specific empirical episodes are shaped by their theories thematiccontent, but are not inferred from putative causal generalizations or covering laws. These
accounts therefore gain no weight from their purely rhetorical association with theoriesquasi-deductive arguments: they must be judged on the plausibility of their empirical claims.
Moreover, the quasi-deductive form in which explanatory theories are typically presentedobscures their actual explanatory role, which is to indicate what sort of explanation may berequired, to provide conceptual categories, and to suggest an empirical focus. This account
of how theoretical explanations are constructed subverts the nomotheticidiographicdistinction that is often used to distinguish International Relations from History.
Keywords
explanation, explanatory theory, heuristic, International Relations theory, methodology
Introduction
Theoretical debates in International Relations are typically concerned with the scope and
content of general theoretical claims and with recurring questions of ontology, episte-
mology and method. There is comparatively little concern with how theories are applied.
Yet if theoretical ideas influence how we think about international relations, then it is
crucial to ask how they are translated into substantive claims about specific empirical
episodes.1 We cannot properly evaluate theories or the explanations associated with them
without a clear understanding of how those theories are applied and, therefore, of how
they contribute to our understanding of international relations.
European Journal ofInternational Relations
XX(X) 121 The Author(s) 2010Reprints and permissions: sagepub.
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DOI: 10.1177/1354066109344008
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2 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
This article examines how explanatory theories are applied. It begins with a puzzle:
although many explanatory theorists accept that their theories are not deductively
applied, they do not offer any alternative account of how those theories are drawn upon.
There has been little attempt to unpack what is involved in the non-deductive, or heuristic,application of such theories. I seek to fill this gap by arguing that explanatory theories in
International Relations are typically heuristically applied: theorists accounts of specific
empirical episodes are shaped by their theories thematic content but are not inferred
from putative causal generalizations. Rather than identifying covering laws, theories
indicate what sort of explanation is required, provide conceptual categories and suggest
an empirical focus. I illustrate this by re-examining Waltzs well-known explanation of
the lack of direct military conflict between the superpowers during the Cold War, showing
how recognizing that neorealism is heuristically applied influences our understanding of
Waltzs claims. I argue that despite explanatory theorists focus on developing abstract
arguments, good judgement is central to the construction and evaluation of substantive
explanatory claims.
For some, the idea that theories are, or could be, deductively applied is part of
what identifies them as explanatory theories. For others, it may seem self-evident
that such theories are heuristically applied. Thus Buzan (2004: 24) notes that while
some demand that a theory contains or is able to generate testable hypotheses
of a causal nature, others use the term for anything that organises a field systemati-
cally, structures questions and establishes a coherent and rigorous set of interrelated
concepts and categories. I show that the first view is descriptively false: theories do
not contribute to the development of substantive explanatory claims by providingtestable causal generalizations. I also argue that the implications of the second view
have not been well worked out. Hence this article aims both to reveal explanatory
theorists actual practices and to show how thinking of theories as heuristic resources
might influence our attempts to assess and improve theories and the explanations
that draw on them.
My argument carries three main implications. First, substantive explanatory claims
that draw on theories heuristically gain no additional weight from what is a purely
rhetorical association with the theories quasi-deductive arguments. What must be
assessed is the plausibility of the substantive empirical accounts, not abstract qualitiesof the theories. This suggests that explanatory claims should not be privileged just
because they are theoretically derived. Second, the heuristic functions that theories
perform may be rather limited: theories like neorealism offer little critical reflection
upon the different sorts of questions that might be asked about particular episodes, the
alternative conceptual categories that might be employed or the range of explanatory
factors that might be examined. Addressing such deficiencies offers a more promising
way of improving such theories than seeking to elaborate quasi-deductive arguments
that are not directly drawn upon. Third, my account of how theories are applied under-
mines the nomotheticidiographic distinction that is often used to distinguish socialscientific and historical approaches to international relations. This creates space for a
deeper appreciation of the kinds of judgements that we rely upon in developing and
assessing theoretical explanations.
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Humphreys 3
Theories and perspectives
According to Smith (2000), explanatory theory includes neorealism, neoliberalism and
much of mainstream constructivism. It is characterized, above all, by positivist premises:explanatory theorists are committed to the view that the social world is amenable to the
same kinds of analysis as the natural world, to a separation between facts and values,
to uncovering patterns and regularities and to empiricism as the arbiter of what counts
as knowledge (Smith, 2000: 380, 383). Thus explanatory theorists might be expected to
apply their theories in accordance with the covering law model of explanation, in which
an episode is explained by subsuming it under general laws, i.e. by showing that it
occurred in accordance with those laws, in virtue of the realization of certain specified
antecedent conditions (Hempel, 1965: 246). In other words, they might be expected,
first, to develop theories in which causal generalizations are inferred from properly specified
assumptions; second, under appropriate conditions, to deduce explanatory claims from those
generalizations; and, third, to test those claims against (what are said to be) the facts.2
Some explanatory theorists appear to endorse this model of theory application. For
example, Waltz (1979: 17) argues that the theorist must contrive explanations from which
hypotheses can then be inferred and tested, while Moravcsik (1997: 514) argues that any
nontautological social scientific theory must be grounded in a set of positive assumptions
from which arguments, explanations, and predictions can be derived. This model is also
implicit in the form in which most explanatory theories are presented. The centrepiece of
such theories is typically a sequence of quasi-deductive arguments culminating in a putative
causal generalization: the theorys findings are claimed to follow from a specified set ofassumptions that approximate real-world conditions. Thus neorealists seek to show how
balancing behaviour is driven by the anarchic structure of the international system (see Waltz,
1979), neoliberals seek to show how institutions facilitate cooperation under anarchy (see
Oye, 1986; Stein, 1990), and mainstream constructivists seek to show how states interests
and identities are socially constructed (see Finnemore, 1996; Wendt, 1992). If applied in
accordance with the covering law model, these theories would be used to show that an
outcome was to be expected because the specified antecedent conditions were fulfilled. In
such circumstances, the outcome could be deduced from the theorys putative covering laws.
Some theorists have attempted to apply explanatory theories deductively. For example,Posen (1984: 8) seeks to compare organization theory and neorealist balance of power
theory by deducing specific propositions about French, British and German military
doctrine during the interwar period. However, he is unable to make these deductions: in
order to construct neorealist hypotheses about military doctrine, he has to pull the theory
in the direction of political realism or Realpolitik with which it is closely identified,
but not synonymous. Thus he describes the two families of hypotheses that he tests not
as propositions deduced from theoretical assumptions but as representing two distinct
perspectives on state behaviour. In fact, he accepts that his use of the terms organization
theory and balance of power theory may be somewhat misleading, though he insiststhat they do indicate the general origins of his hypotheses (Posen, 1984: 345). His
problem is that neorealism does not specify balancing behaviour in sufficient detail that
it is possible to deduce what sorts of military doctrines are required.
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4 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
Under-specification is not the only problem. Explanatory theories are often represented
as deductive in form even though, when they are applied, no deductions are derived. For
example, Mearsheimer (1990) is said to have applied neorealism deductively in predicting
the demise of NATO and the EC after the end of the Cold War: this is cited, by critics, asevidence of neorealisms failings (see Keohane and Martin, 1995: 40). Mearsheimer
insists that theorists shouldoffer predictions and presents what he terms a deductive
case that bipolarity is more stable than multipolarity. He is also pessimistic about the
prospects of continued institutional cooperation in Europe after the end of the Cold War.
However, nowhere does he explicitly show, or even attempt to show, that the demise of
NATO and the EC may be deduced from neorealist premises. He does surmise that
NATO may disintegrate and he is sceptical that a more powerful EC will ensure peace,
but these conclusions are derived from his reading of the Cold War, rather than from the
deductive application of neorealist theory (Mearsheimer, 1990: 9, 18, 52, 48).3 In such
cases, the rhetoric of deduction does not match the reality of how the theory is applied.
The idea that explanatory theories are not in fact deductively applied is quite common-
place. Katzenstein (1996: 26) argues that although neorealism holds forth the promise of a
tight, deductive theory, it cannot be directly applied to questions of national security: it is
therefore employed only as an orienting framework. Zacher and Matthew (cited in
Moravcsik, 1997: 515) argue that liberalisms propositions cannot be deduced from its
assumptions. Jervis (1999: 43) suggests that neorealism and neoliberalism are better labelled
schools of thought or approaches than theories: neither has the sort of integrity that would
enable them to be falsified. Adler (1997: 3289) observes that constructivists seek to explain
the social construction of reality, but argues that their reasoning cannot be assimilated tomodels of deductive proof or inductive generalization.4
The adequacy of the covering law model as a depiction of theorists explanatory prac-
tices has also been questioned.5 Kratochwil (1993: 66) argues that although most political
scientists pay lip service to nomothetic/deductive explanation schemes, no general
social science laws have been discovered. According to Ruggie (1998b: 861; see also
Smith, 2000: 383), [v]irtually no theoretical account in International Relations fulfils the
criteria of the covering law model and, moreover, when challenged most theorists readily
admit that fact. This suggests that explanatory theorists believe that their theories are use-
ful even though they cannot be deductively applied. A similar view is implicit in Waltsobservation that the social sciences are replete with inconsistent or incomplete but none-
theless highly useful theories (Walt, 1999: 17). The implication is that the utility of
explanatory theories does not reside solely in their ability to generate deductive explana-
tions. However, this idea has never been unpacked. It therefore creates a puzzle: if explan-
atory theories are not applied in accordance with the covering law model, then how are
they applied? This puzzle is expressed in, but not resolved by, the emerging preference for
terms such as perspective, approach and school of thought over the term theory.
Some scholars employ such terms in order to highlight the variety of claims that may
be categorized under a single theoretical heading. For example, Stein (1990: 4) termsrealism a perspective in order to emphasize that it is a large body of work that includes
quite different and disparate strands. Legro (1995: 8) describes realism, institutionalism
and organizational culture as broad perspectives (he also employs the terms school
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Humphreys 5
and approach), but avoids the term theory because of the plurality of views within
each. Nau (2007: 4) uses the term perspective because he is interested in what theories
emphasize, not with all the variations of each theory. However, the issue is not just
whether theorists wish to avoid getting bogged down in the detail of competing claims.A theory (or perspective) will encompass a variety of competing claims only if its terms
are not uniquely defined, if its assumptions are not clearly identified or if putative causal
generalizations are disputed. In such cases, the theory cannot possibly be deductively
applied: if it is, nevertheless, claimed to be useful, we need to establish how this is so.
Because under-specification is a common feature of explanatory theories in International
Relations, some scholars distinguish between theories and perspectives. For example,
Katzenstein (1996: 45) acknowledges that his theoretical perspective of sociological insti-
tutionalism does not constitute a theory of national security, but insists that no such theory
exists in the field of national security studies. His point is that his approach is no less valu-
able because it has not been developed into a determinate theory: other approaches, including
neorealism, are equally incapable of being deductively applied. This claim involves an
implicit distinction between theories and perspectives, where the former can and the latter
cannot be deductively applied. Katzenstein employs a variety of terms for approaches that are
not, in the required sense, theories, including perspectives, paradigms, orientations,
approaches and frameworks. However, none of these terms is clearly defined: they there-
fore provide no insight into how perspectives are drawn upon in substantive explanations.
Some explanatory theorists use terms such as perspective in recognition that their
theories cannot be deductively applied. For example, Keohane (1989: 2) accepts that
liberal institutionalism is a school of thought that provides a perspective on world poli-tics, rather than a logically connected deductive theory. Milner (1997: 4) acknowl-
edges that the notion of two-level games, on which she draws, may be promising as a
framework for analysis but does not constitute a theory with testable hypotheses. In
both cases, a highly significant claim remains implicit and thus unelaborated: that their
approaches offer explanatory value even though they cannot be deductively applied.
Katzenstein et al. (1998: 6467) differentiate two meanings of theory in International
Relations: general theoretical orientations and specific research programs. The former
provide heuristics they suggest relevant variables and causal patterns that provide
guidelines for developing specific research programs. The latter link explanatory vari-ables to a set of outcomes, or dependent variables. Katzenstein et al. describe realism,
liberalism and constructivism as general theoretical orientations but do not specify the
connection between generic orientations and specific research programs. The manner
in which these theories actually contribute to our understanding of international relations
therefore remains unelaborated.
The issue here is not just that some theories are well specified while others are not. To the
extent that distinctions between theories and perspectives provide this impression, they
obscure the deeper problem. This is, first, that existing explanatory theories are not deduc-
tively applied; second, that those theories are claimed to be nonetheless useful; and, third, thatwe lack any alternative account of how they contribute to our understanding of international
relations. Keohane (1989: 2) hints that perspectives provide a set of distinctive questions and
assumptions about the basic units and forces in world politics, while Nau (2007: xxiv)
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6 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
suggests that they serve as disciplinary lenses. However, there has been no attempt to ask
what is involved in the heuristic application of explanatory theories or to consider what it
implies for how the resulting explanatory claims should be evaluated.
Heuristic theory application
TheNew Shorter Oxford English Dictionary (1993: 1228) defines heuristic as
[s]erving to find out or discover something: a heuristic is a method for attempting the
solution of problems or a rule or item of information used in such a process. In this
sense, describing the application of an idea as heuristic implies only that the idea helps
us to understand that to which it is applied. Plya (1990: 113) goes further, explicitly
contrasting formal (deductive) and non-formal (heuristic) reasoning: he argues that
[h]euristic reasoning is not regarded as final and strict but as provisional and plausible
only, whose purpose is to discover the solution of the present problem. However,
Gigerenzer and Todd (1999: 25) argue that heuristic refers to useful, even indispensa-
ble cognitive processes for solving problems that cannotbe handled by logic and prob-
ability theory. This suggests that employing ideas heuristically is not just a prelude to
applying them formally but is itself a profitable means of investigating problems: it should
be understood as a significant alternative to the search for deductive solutions.
Such distinctions are used by scholars from a variety of traditions. Almond (1970: 4)
termed his work heuristic theory: its function was to facilitate research, to lay out variables
and hypotheses about their relations, to suggest why a particular approach or method might
be useful. He insisted that it should not be confused with scientific theory: its value washeuristic. Keohane (1989: 173) argues that rationalist approaches to international relations
may be heuristically powerful even though they omit important explanatory factors,
implying that explanatory power does not reside solely in a theorys deductive implications.
Kratochwil (1994: 250) distinguishes development of a heuristically fruitful research agenda
from pursuit of a mistaken ideal of parsimony. Abbott (2004) argues that methodological
debates in the social sciences should not be construed as demanding determinate choices
(between, say, positivism and interpretivism, or realism and constructionism) but as opening
up a body of heuristic resources. Lakatos (1970: 155, 176; emphasis in original) argues that a
research programme should be rejected only when it is superseded by a rival with greaterheuristic power. He focuses on heuristic power because empirical tests cannot be decisive,
noting that research programmes with no unifying idea, no heuristic power are, on the
whole, worthless.
The idea that explanatory theories in International Relations are better termed per-
spectives also implies a distinction between deductive reasoning and heuristic power.
However, the question of how such theories are applied is not reducible to whether they are
well specified. When explanatory theorists apply their theories heuristically, their accounts of
specific empirical episodes are shaped by those theories thematic content, but are not
inferred from any putative causal generalizations or covering laws. This captures how explan-atory theories in International Relations are typically applied: it is not just an occasional short
cut. Theories typically shape substantive explanatory claims without determining either their
content or form. Thus although heuristic theory application is, by definition, non-deductive,
this does not make it second best. Heuristic is not to be contrasted with explanatory: it
describes one of the ways in which explanation works (Kaplan, 1964: 3578).
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Humphreys 7
When a theory is employed as a heuristic resource, it performs three main functions.
First, it indicates what sort of explanation is required, for example by suggesting a
particular level of analysis or a causal rather than an interpretive approach. Second, it
provides the conceptual categories that are used to navigate through and to organizeempirical material. Third, it indicates what mechanisms, actors, chance factors and
background conditions are worth examining (see Suganami, 2008). Thus a theory tells us
what we are looking for and where to look for it. Just as importantly, it also tells us what
we are not looking for and where not to look for it. These functions strongly influence
the kind of explanation that will be constructed, but they are not sufficient, in and of
themselves, to determine its form or content: its form will depend largely on the nature
of the specific research question, while its content will depend largely on what is discovered
when the question is investigated. A theory that is heuristically applied is therefore a tool
that aids inquiry, not a substitute for empirical research.
This account of how theoretical explanations are generated is consistent with
Hoffmanns plea for theory to be understood as a set of interrelated questions capable of
guiding research: he argues that theory should concentrate research on the most
important problems, help us order the data we have accumulated and identify the
main factors or variables in the field (Hoffmann, 1960: v, 8). However, theory is more
intimately involved in our understanding of the world than Hoffmanns list implies. In
indicating what kinds of explanation are required to answer particular research ques-
tions, theories embody claims about what we already know and about what we still need
to learn. The organizing role of conceptual categories is not only classificatory, but also
constitutive: unless we can say what we are examining, we cannot relate anything toanything else. Because we cannot simply investigate everything, the role of theories in
prioritizing certain mechanisms, actors and conditions involves implicit claims about
what is (and is not) problematic. These issues, about what we already know, how it
should be categorized and what can be treated as unproblematic, lie at the heart of the
differences not only between competing interpretations of empirical episodes but also
between rival theoretical approaches, including positivist and post-positivist approaches.
Thus the thematic material that is drawn upon when a theory is heuristically applied
is related to but far from identical with the putative causal generalizations that would be
drawn on as covering laws if the theory were deductively applied. One key difference isthat when this thematic material is conceived of as a heuristic resource, rather than as a
determinate source of explanations, the theorys implicit assumptions about what is and
is not problematic are brought to the fore. This exposes the limits of debates about
whether explanatory theorists are really positivists (see Smith, 2000). It also reveals that
a theorys heuristic resources cannot be determinately stated: we cannot say exactly what
an individual researcher will draw from a theory in relation to a specific research question.6
This problem is particularly acute in relation to existing explanatory theories because
they typically adopt a quasi-deductive form in which putative causal generalizations are
presented as if they follow from a sequence of assumptions and arguments: the theoriesheuristic functions are thereby obscured.
The single most important characteristic of the explanations generated when theories
are heuristically applied is that the manner in which explanatory factors are combined is
particular to individual episodes: it is not inferred from the theory being applied. This is
apparent in applications of Keohanes functional theory of international regimes. Drawing
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8 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
upon [g]ame theory and discussions of collective action, which he describes as deductive
theories based on assumptions of rationality, Keohane develops a theory in which rational
self-interested actors value international regimes as a way of increasing their ability to
make mutually beneficial agreements and hegemons seek to institute international regimeson an intergovernmental basis as a way of helping to control the actions of other states.7
However, Keohane applies the theory heuristically: he does not pretend that it is deductively
adequate, maintaining only that we can improve our understanding of changes in regimes
by thinking about cooperation in ways suggested by the theory (Keohane, 2005: x, 65,
135, 140, 213).
Keohane accepts that [a]lthough regimes can facilitate cooperation among governments
that seek to make agreements, they do not automatically produce it. One reason for the
indeterminacy is that the theory treats states as units, without taking into account
variations in domestic politics or in the ideas prevailing within them. Yet Keohane
believes that domestic political concerns were critical to postwar US decisions about
whether and how to cooperate. He argues, for example, that the US government pursued
an oil regime, but that domestic politics got in the way. Moreover, although his theory
ignores domestic politics, when he turns to his empirical cases Keohane seeks to show
how domestic and systemic factors interacted to produce specific outcomes. Thus he
argues that the proposal for an Anglo-American Petroleum Agreement failed due to a
combination of the structure of American government, ideology, bureaucratic battles
and domestic oil interests. This account of how explanatory factors combine to produce
a specific outcome is particular to this case and cannot be inferred from Keohanes theory.
His theory provides a framework for the analysis of these issues (it performs heuristicfunctions), but it is not a testable theory (Keohane, 2005: 214, xiii, 141, xv).
The chief consequence of a theory being heuristically applied is that substantive
explanatory claims gain no additional weight from what is a purely rhetorical association
with the theorys quasi-deductive arguments. A theoretical explanation may be privileged
vis-a-vis a competing account if there is reason to believe that a particular episode is an
instance of a broader class that the theory is thought to be able to explain. This can only
be the case when a theory is deductively applied. If it is heuristically applied, there can
be no reason to privilege the theoretical explanation. In such cases, the question of
whether the theory is useful can only be answered in the particular: by assessing whetherit in fact helps to generate a persuasive answer to a specific research question. Such
evaluations rely on good judgement: on asking whether explanatory claims constitute
persuasive accounts of relevant episodes. This judgement turns on issues such as whether
the account coheres with what we think we already know, whether it makes sense of the
relevant empirical material, whether we are disposed to trust the author and whether her
characterization of situations, actors and outcomes seems plausible.
This contrasts with how explanations are assessed when a theory is deductively
applied: then it is necessary to compare the theorys predictions to (what are said to be)
the facts, or to evaluate the claim that the episode fulfils the theorys specified antecedentconditions, thereby justifying the claim that the outcome is explained by the putative
covering law. This may require good judgement, but what is being evaluated is the
correspondence between aspects of a particular episode and the theory. What is being
evaluated when a theory is heuristically applied is the substance of particular empirical
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Humphreys 9
and historical claims. Of course, it might be claimed that even here our judgement feeds
off putative covering laws.8 My contention, however, is that good judgement does not
rely on or refer to putative causal generalizations: the idea that theories are heuristically
applied not only depicts the relationship between theories and substantive explanatoryclaims, but also captures something of how our minds deal with an uncertain world
(Gigerenzer and Todd, 1999: 5).
Waltz on the Cold War: A heuristic application of neorealism
Neorealism is often represented as generating covering law explanations (see Donnelly,
2000: 301; Mouritzen, 1997: 69; Ruggie, 1998a: 7). This reflects Waltzs account of how
to construct a theory of international politics: first, one must conceive of international
politics as a bounded realm or domain; second, one must discover some law-like regu-
larities within it; and third, one must develop a way of explaining the observed regularities.
However, Waltz also acknowledges the limits of explanatory approaches: he observes that
the first big difficulty lies in finding or stating theories with enough precision and plausibility
to make testing worthwhile (Waltz, 1979: 116, 14). He adds that when we have failed to
predict, theory still helps us to understand and explain some things about the behaviour of
states (Waltz, 1986: 332), implying that neorealism may be useful even without being
deductively applied.
Waltzs explanation of the absence of direct military confrontation between the super-
powers during the Cold War draws on his account of how balancing differs in multipolar
and bipolar systems. He distinguishes two balancing strategies: internal efforts (movesto increase economic capability, to increase military strength, to develop clever strategies)
and external efforts (moves to strengthen and enlarge ones own alliance or to weaken
and shrink an opposing one). He observes, however, that the second strategy is only
available in multipolar systems: Where two powers contend, imbalances can be righted
only by their internal efforts. With more than two, shifts in alignment provide an additional
means of adjustment, adding flexibility to the system (Waltz, 1979: 118, 163). Waltzs
contention that bipolar systems are relatively stable (that is, peaceful) rests on their lack
of flexibility: he overturned the conventional wisdom by arguing that the inflexibility of
a bipolar world may promote a greater stability than flexible balances of power amonga larger number of states (Waltz, 1964: 899900).
If flexibility is to contribute to stability, Waltz argues, it must enable states to change
sides in order to tilt the balance against the would-be aggressors: at least one powerful
state must overcome the pressure of ideological preference, the pull of previous ties, and
the conflict of present interests in order to add its weight to the side of the peaceful.
Waltz accepts that this may not reliably happen: in multipolar systems, states may pass
the buck, a dynamic he associates with the build-up to World War II. Even should states
refrain from free-riding, the timing and content of the actions required to balance
against would-be aggressors become more and more difficult to calculate as the numberof great powers increases. Further, flexibility of alignment may make allies appear unre-
liable: great powers that depend on their allies for survival may be dragged into
conflicts to defend those allies, a dynamic Waltz associates with the outbreak of World War I.
His point is that uncertainty, arising from flexibility of alignment, amplifies unsettling
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10 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
developments: Rather than making states properly cautious and forwarding the chances
of peace, uncertainty and miscalculation cause wars. Prior to the two world wars, he
argues, flexibility of alignment made for rigidity of strategy or the limitation of freedom
of decision. During the Cold War, rigidity of alignment made for flexibility of strategyand the enlargement of freedom of decision (Waltz, 1979: 16470).
This cannot plausibly be construed as a covering law account. Neorealisms main
candidate covering law, that states seeking to survive in anarchic systems engage in
balancing behaviour, is disproven by Waltzs discussion of the dynamics of multipolar
systems.9 Because he fails to specify the circumstances under which states in multipolar
systems pass the buck or get locked into chain gangs (see Christensen and Snyder,
1990), Waltz cannot be construed as applying a more specific covering law concerning
when states do or do not balance. Moreover, Bueno de Mesquita (2003: 1723) argues
that neorealist assumptions imply nothing at all about how uncertainty affects stability:
Waltz makes a logical leap from the association of uncertainty with multipolarity to the
association of multipolarity with instability and bipolarity with stability. If so, then Waltzs
claim that bipolar systems are more stable than multipolar systems is not deductively derived.
Nevertheless, the argument is recognizably neorealist: the theory does perform
important heuristic functions. First, it indicates that an explanation should be systemic
in form: Waltz presents a structural argument even though this cannot, in the absence of
further arguments about the impact of flexibility, resolve the issue. Second, the theory
provides organizing concepts: Waltz treats categories like superpower and polarity as
unproblematic, despite the fact that during the early Cold War the USSR was not a
superpower and thus the international system was not bipolar (see Lebow, 1994). Third,the theory suggests a focus on alliance choices: Waltz emphasizes states strategic concerns,
downplaying the importance of domestic structure. When he considers factors such as
ideology, he represents them as working against strategic rationality. However, neorealisms
heuristic functions are limited: it offers no insight into alternative responses to the
research question, fails to problematize its central categories and ignores key mechanisms,
conditions and actors. Thus showing that neorealism is heuristically applied also
indicates how it might be improved: what is required is not refinement of its quasi-deductive
arguments, but the development of a more critical understanding of the variety of pos-
sible explanatory forms, concepts and foci.10Only when neorealism is conceived of as a heuristic resource is it possible to reconcile
Waltzs insistence that it explains a small number of big and important things with his
acceptance that its explanations are indeterminate because both unit-level and structural
causes are in play (Waltz, 1986: 329, 343). His implicit claim is that any good explanation
will refer to the structure of the system, but that the way in which structural and
non-structural factors interact cannot be determinately stated: it will vary according to
the specific problem being investigated. This makes it easier to understand why he
abstracts from non-structural factors in his theory but refers to them in substantive
explanatory claims, as in his acknowledgement that an apparently stable system canalways be disrupted by the actions of a Hitler and the reactions of a Chamberlain
(Waltz, 1979: 7980, 175). His account of the relationship between structural and
non-structural factors in his discussion of the Cold War international system is specific
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Humphreys 11
to that case and is not derived from or captured in neorealisms quasi-deductive
reasoning. Thus Waltz (1997: 916) observes that an explanation is not a theory: what
goes into an explanation is not identical with what goes into a theory. This is what we
would expect if a theory is employed as a tool that aids inquiry rather than as a sourceof deductive explanations.
The conceptual and descriptive inadequacies of Waltzs approach to this subject are
widely known (see Wagner, 1993). However, the idea that Waltz applies neorealism
heuristically generates distinctive implications for how Waltzs substantive explanatory
claims should be evaluated. It makes clear that his claims gain no weight from what is
their purely rhetorical association with neorealisms quasi-deductive arguments: they
stand or fall solely as interpretations of the nature of the Cold War system. This contrasts
with the approach adopted by those who contend that later emendations of neorealism
reveal it to be a degenerating research programme (see Legro and Moravcsik, 1999;
Vasquez, 1997). They assume that explanatory theories can and should be deductively
applied. Accepting that it is impossible to test theories definitively against the facts, they
focus on how the assumptions and quasi-deductive arguments of realist theories evolved
over time, asking if emendations were designed to explain away anomalies or if they also
generated new insights (see Lakatos, 1970). When a theory is heuristically applied, the
key question is whether it is in fact useful in relation to specific research questions. This
can be established only by evaluating the resulting explanations.
Because Waltzs substantive explanatory claims do not draw upon neorealism deduc-
tively, the validity of the theorys arguments cannot be cited as reason to accept those
claims. Instead, we must reach a judgement about whether the claims themselves arepersuasive. Waltzs contention that the bipolar structure of the Cold War system contrib-
uted to the absence of direct conflict between the superpowers rests on a sequence of
historical claims.11 First, he argues that great powers were dragged into war in 1914:
Because the defeat or the defection of a major ally would have shaken the balance, each
state was constrained to adjust its strategy and the use of its forces to the aims and fears
of its partners. Second, he argues that great powers passed the buck in the 1930s: British
and French leaders hoped that if their countries remained aloof, Russia and Germany
would balance each other off or fight each other to the finish. Third, he contends that
such problems were not present during the Cold War: the US could withstand the loss ofChina in 1949; could afford to dissociate itself from its allies over the Suez crisis in
1956; and could accommodate French withdrawal from NATOs integrated military
structure (Waltz, 1979: 16571).
These are all plausible historical claims: it is not unreasonable to suggest that the
dynamics of alliance politics contributed to the outbreak of World War I, that Britain and
France might successfully have opposed Hitler prior to 1939, and that US survival during
the Cold War did not depend upon allied support. However, they are also open to dispute:
as we might expect from claims that draw on neorealism heuristically, they downplay the
importance of domestic politics, international institutions and systemic norms. Despiteneorealisms status as one of the leading explanatory approaches to international relations,
the persuasiveness of Waltzs account of the lack of superpower conflict during the Cold
War rests firmly on which way these judgements fall.
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12 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
The role of judgement in History and International Relations
The idea that explanatory theories in International Relations are typically heuristically
applied subverts the idiographicnomothetic distinction that is often thought to distinguishHistory from International Relations. According to Levy, for example, historians describe,
explain, and interpret individual events whereas political scientists generalize about
the relationship between variables and construct lawlike statements about social behaviour
(Levy, 1997: 22). Such claims focus on the form in which theories are presented, rather
than on how they are actually drawn upon in substantive explanations. In International
Relations, an explanatory theorys putative causal generalizations are not typically
deductively applied. Such theories may be drawn upon as heuristic resources, but historians
also require a certain sense for how things work (Trachtenberg, 2006: 30). Moreover,
like historians, political scientists often draw on theories heuristic resources in order
to interpret individual events. What distinguishes historians from political scientists who
apply explanatory theories heuristically is not the explanatory activity each engages in,
but the form in which they present their sense of how things work.12 It is therefore ironic
that the form in which explanatory theories are typically presented (as quasi-deductive
arguments that generate covering laws) tends to obscure the explanatory functions that
those theories actually perform.
When a theory is deductively applied, an empirical episode is represented as an
instance of a class of such episodes. An explanation is generated by showing that the
empirical conditions specified in the theory are fulfilled, but explanatory power resides
in the causal generalization under which the episode is subsumed. In contrast, when atheory is heuristically applied, an explanation is generated through empirical or historical
inquiry, guided by the theorys heuristic resources. Explanatory power resides in the
ensuing account of the specific episode, not in the theorys quasi-deductive arguments.
There is no attempt to show that conditions specified prior to the inquiry are fulfilled: the
focus is on developing an account of the episode that provides a persuasive answer to the
research question. There are two prerequisites for developing such an account. The first
is a theory that provides a clear understanding of the sort of explanation required, useful
conceptual categories and an appropriate empirical focus. The second is good judgement
as to what constitutes a plausible account: judgement plays a key role not only in assessmentof competing explanatory claims, but also in their construction.
Some insight into the kind of judgement required is provided by historians understanding
of the role of judgement in History. Debates about the nature of historical explanation tend
to revolve around Hempels claim that it follows the covering law model: that historical
explanations demonstrate why events were to be expected in view of certain antecedent or
simultaneous conditions (Hempel, 1965: 235). Hempels contention is that although
historians tend to examine individual events rather than classes of events, their explanations
still draw on general laws (see also Levy, 1997: 25). However, his view is subject to numerous
objections (see Trachtenberg, 2006: 111), of which two are particularly pertinent. First,Trachtenbergs defence of historians reliance on judgement involves the contention that the
covering law model is unsatisfactory even as an account of scientific explanation. Second,
Mink (1987: 82) argues that historical understanding is achieved through a type of judgement
which cannot be replaced by any analytic technique.
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Humphreys 13
Trachtenberg argues that the historians goal is to make sense of the past and that in
order to do this she endeavours to see how things fit together, to understand the logic
underlying the course of events. In this sense, he suggests, a historical interpretation is
the analogue of a physical theory. However, Trachtenberg doubts whether the coveringlaw model provides an adequate account of how explanation proceeds in science. He
observes that, even in science, the facts never just speak for themselves: theory choice
is never fully determined by the facts. Moreover, in History, as in science, the fact that
the choice between competing interpretations is made by a scientific community the
fact that the decision is rooted in the mature judgement exercised by the members of that
community is the closest we can come to guaranteeing the rationality of the process.
Thus Trachtenberg argues that historical and scientific explanations are analogous not in
the sense that both rely on covering laws, but in the sense that both rely on good judgement:
Historians exercise judgement, but so do scientists. Moreover, the process of judgement
is not governed by logical rules, but draws on the mature sensibility of the trained scholar
(Trachtenberg, 2006: 6, 27, 17, 22, 44).
Trachtenberg accepts that all historical interpretations draw on a kind of theory.
However, he describes theory not as a sequence of quasi-deductive arguments but as an
engine of analysis. Theory does not provide ready-made answers, but instead serves
to generate a series of specific questions you can only answer by doing empirical
research. Theory is not a substitute for empirical analysis (especially, one might add,
if it consists of putative causal generalizations that are liable to be refuted if drawn upon
deductively). Trachtenberg also observes that when theories of international politics are
applied, it is really the spirit of a theory that is being assessed (Trachtenberg, 2006: 30,32, 43). The notion of a theorys heuristic usefulness is preferable to that of its spirit, but
what matters in each case is whether the theory contributes to persuasive accounts of
specific empirical episodes: this is a matter of judgement.
Mink (1987) distinguishes even more strongly between deductive explanation and the
kind of understanding generated in historical interpretations.13 He argues that historical
explanations do not consist of propositions that can be detached from specific episodes
(as covering laws can): historians do not first collect facts and later synthesize them into
historical interpretations. Rather, historical understanding consists of comprehending a
complex event by seeing things together in a total and synoptic judgement. Thissynoptic judgement, or the ability to comprehend an array of facts in a single act of
understanding, forms both the process of historical understanding and its outcome: the
historian relies on judgement in reaching understanding, but understanding also consists
in the ability to see things together. Mink accepts that theory may help us to see things
together, but he insists that success depends at least as much on the ability to make
synoptic judgements as on the correctness of the theory. He also warns that the role of
synoptic judgement may be obscured by the historians need to set forth in sequence a
narrative which he understands or tries to understand as a whole (Mink, 1987: 814
[emphasis on original]; see also Schroeder, 1997: 6870).These accounts of the role of judgement in historical explanation illuminate the heuristic
role of explanatory theories in International Relations in two ways. First, they suggest
that theory has a role to play in generating historical understanding, but that our ability
to understand consists in our ability to arrive at good judgements. Theory does not
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14 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
provide answers, but it can bring questions into focus (Trachtenberg, 2006: 33). The
test of such a theory is whether it helps to generate a plausible account of a particular
episode, but what is tested is the theorys heuristic usefulness in relation to that episode,
not its abstract arguments. Second, Mink warns that the form in which historians presenttheir interpretations may obscure the nature of their understanding. This illuminates the
disjunction between the covering law model of explanation and theorists actual explana-
tory practices, for, as Trachtenberg observes, in trying to explain something we try to
show how one thing led to another, how one thing followed from another as a matter
of course (Trachtenberg, 2006: 185). In other words, our attempts to communicate why
we understand a substantive episode in a particular way may obscure the manner in
which theory contributed to that understanding.
The central role of judgement when explanatory theories are heuristically applied is
revealed in Keohane and Nyes introduction to a collection of studies on the impact of
institutions in Europe immediately after the Cold War. Keohane and Nye (1993: 7)
acknowledge that institutionalist theory is not sufficiently precisely formulated to
permit rigorous testing of hypotheses. The contributors are therefore asked to examine
in detail processes of policy-making and bargaining, to determine the roles that interna-
tional institutions have played in affecting state strategies and the outcomes of interstate
negotiations. Explaining why they adopted this approach, Keohane and Nye argue that
institutionalist arguments have value only insofar as they facilitate more sophisticated
empirical investigations. In other words, they treat institutionalist theory as a heuristic
resource, placing the explanatory burden on the substance of the individual explanatory
accounts that are generated when it is heuristically applied, rather than on the theorysabstract qualities. The resulting accounts inevitably reflect their authors judgements
about the roles played by international institutions, judgements that cannot be reduced to
the application of covering laws. Any assessment of those accounts must also involve
judgements of their individual plausibility: abstract analysis of institutionalist arguments
will not suffice.
The importance of good judgement may be obscured by the rhetorical structure of
theorists arguments, which often imply that their theories are in fact deductively applied.
For example, Risse-Kappen (1996) seeks to explain NATOs origins and endurance after
the Cold War through a social constructivist interpretation of republican liberalismwhich emphasizes collective identities and norms of appropriate behaviour and links
domestic politics systematically to the foreign policy of states. He starts by criticizing
the realist conventional wisdom, arguing that realism is indeterminate with regard to
the origins of, the interaction patterns in, and the endurance of NATO almost every
single choice of states can be accommodated somehow by realist thinking (Risse-
Kappen, 1996: 3589, 364; emphasis in original). This critique implies that good theories
should be deductively applied: that realism is flawed because it fails to generate determi-
nate explanations. Risse-Kappens next moves are also consistent with the idea that theo-
ries should be deductively applied: he outlines the core assumptions of liberal theories ofinternational relations, specifies his constructivist interpretation of republican liberalism,
summarizes it in abstract terms and seeks to illustrate it in relation to key stages in
NATOs evolution (see Risse-Kappen, 1996: 36571).
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Humphreys 15
However, Risse-Kappen does not apply his approach deductively (see Dessler, 1999:
1345). His basic position is that NATOs origins and evolution are best understood if
we think of NATO as institutionalizing a community of states united by a collective
democratic identity. His substantive arguments do revolve around this theme, but theylargely consist of specific historical claims, which draw on his theoretical approach
heuristically. For example, he argues that NATO institutionalized the transatlantic security
community in response to the Soviet threat. His abstract presentation of his theory incor-
porates a general account of why democracies form pluralistic security communities of
shared values, but he does not attempt to show how that played out in this particular
case, instead satisfying himself with the interpretive judgement that the Soviet threat did
not create the community in the first place (Risse-Kappen, 1996: 3712). Similarly,
while outlining how US attitudes towards the USSR changed during the 1940s, he
acknowledges that NATO was only one of several possible US choices. Yet none of the
historical reasons he offers for why NATO was in fact chosen is prominent in his abstract
presentation of his theory (see Risse-Kappen, 1996: 3727). The only way of assessing
his substantive explanatory claims is therefore to reach a judgement about whether he
tells a persuasive story about his subject matter: this will turn on substantive interpretive
issues, such as whether a transatlantic security community already existed in 1949.
Risse-Kappens application of his constructivist approach to NATO shares important
characteristics with Waltzs application of neorealism to the Cold War and Keohanes
application of liberal institutionalism to the international oil regime. First, each of these
theories is employed as a heuristic resource: accounts of specific episodes are shaped by
the theories thematic content, but are not inferred from any putative causal generalizations.Second, the resulting accounts do not gain any weight from their purely rhetorical
association with their theories quasi-deductive arguments. They must be assessed on the
basis of their substantive empirical claims and this requires good judgement. Third, the
way in which the theories are drawn upon and the nature of the resulting accounts are
obscured by the quasi-deductive form in which these theories are presented. This makes
it difficult accurately to assess each theorys usefulness and to recognize how the heuristic
resources offered by each theory might be enhanced.
Conclusion
Bull (1969) described the classical approach to theorizing as being characterized
above all by explicit reliance on the exercise of judgement. He argued, moreover, that
when faced with complex problems advocates of scientific approaches resort suddenly
and without acknowledging that this is what they are doing to the methods of the classi-
cal approach (Bull, 1969: 20, 28). This holds some resonance for todays explanatory
theorists. They typically present their theories in a quasi-deductive form, even while
acknowledging that those theories (or perspectives) cannot in fact be deductively applied.
Moreover, they typically apply their theories heuristically and hence rely on the exerciseof judgement whatever the problems they face, complex or not. Thus the theories quasi-
deductive form obscures the manner in which they contribute to our understanding of
international relations, the particular heuristic resources offered by each individual
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16 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
theory and the extent to which we rely on a community of experts to judge what consti-
tutes a persuasive account of particular episodes.14
There is a consequent risk that quasi-deductive argument is inappropriately privileged
in International Relations. If it is presumed that good explanations draw on covering laws,then there is a risk that weight may be attributed to an explanation of some episode because
it draws on a theory that claims to identify causal generalizations, regardless of whether
those generalizations are actually applied to the episode in question. Lebow (2000: 106)
worries that theory may confer an aura of scientific legitimacy on subjective political
beliefs and prejudices. Such a problem will be particularly acute if explanatory claims are
granted credence simply because they are said to be deductively derived. An associated
risk is that intellectual energy is focused on developing quasi-deductive arguments at the
expense of, or even as a substitute for, empirical inquiry. This would be a mistake not only
because theories are typically heuristically, not deductively, applied, but also because
when they are heuristically applied their utility resides in their ability to guide empirical
inquiry: the resulting explanations cannot be detached from their empirical content.
Turner (1987: 158) argues that much apparently deductive reasoning in scientific theo-
ries is really folk-reasoning: theories are not applied according to a strict calculus, but
in conformity with what seems reasonable to a community of scholars. It is helpful to
think of the quasi-deductive arguments that underpin most explanatory theories in this
way: they are not really concerned with what follows deductively from certain assump-
tions, but with what sorts of behaviour are consistent with, or might constitute a reason-
able response to, the conditions specified in those assumptions. This provides further
reason to think that theory should be understood as an aid to empirical inquiry rather thanas a source of determinate explanations. It also suggests that even when constructing
abstract arguments theorists encounter questions of plausibility analogous to those that
arise when we attempt to evaluate substantive explanatory claims: here, too, theorists rely
on the judgement of an expert community.
A useful theory is one that provides a clear understanding of the sort of explanation
required, helpful conceptual categories and an appropriate empirical focus. Such a theory,
when allied to good judgement, facilitates the development of persuasive explanations.
However, the utility of a theory cannot be established in the abstract: if theories are heu-
ristically applied, then we can evaluate their utility only by applying them to specificempirical problems and asking whether they in fact help us to develop persuasive explana-
tions of those problems. Thus a theory can be said to be useful in general only if it is in fact
found to be useful across a range of cases or if it is shown to be particularly useful in certain
cases. This indicates that the traditional emphasis on subjecting theories to hard tests is still
relevant when theories are heuristically applied, but with the qualification that the theory is
tested not by comparing inferred predictions with reality, but by employing it heuristically.
Thus, for example, Schroeders aim is notto test neo-realist theory with historical evidence
but to establish whether it provides a sound model or paradigm for understanding the general
nature of international politics (Schroeder, 1994: 11112; emphasis in original).One advantage of thinking of theories as being heuristically applied is that it also
helps us to think about how they may be improved. Existing explanatory theories are
unlikely to be improved through refinement of their quasi-deductive arguments given
that those arguments are not actually drawn upon in a deductive fashion. However, the
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Humphreys 17
heuristic resources they provide are very limited. They offer little insight into the different
kinds of questions we may wish to ask about similar cases, are largely uncritical about
the conceptual categories they employ and offer a restricted empirical focus. This
indicates that theories could be improved if their authors adopted a more critical approachto these issues, something that would be facilitated by a reduced emphasis on the impor-
tance of defining terms in a manner that permits the construction of deductive arguments.
In particular, explanatory theorists should think more about the different kinds of questions
we might wish to have answered and about how explanatory narratives combine mecha-
nisms, actors, chance factors and background conditions (see Suganami, 1996).
This account of how explanatory theories are applied carries strong implications for
how theoretical explanations should be assessed, for how theories should be assessed
and for how existing theories might be improved. It also invites scepticism about the
nomotheticidiographic distinction as an account of the distinction between historical and
theoretical approaches to international relations. However, it is not anti-theory and does
not entail scepticism about the possibility of developing causal explanations.15 What it
does entail is scepticism about whether the ideal of deductive explanation is itself heuristi-
cally useful: about whether it identifies appropriate standards for theorists to aspire to.
My contention is that the idea that explanatory theories are deductively applied obscures
the actual contribution that they make to our understanding of international relations.
Moreover, the idea that they should be deductively applied points us in the wrong
direction when thinking about the qualities of good theories and of good explanations.
AcknowledgementThis research was partly funded by a British Academy Post-Doctoral Fellowship,
PDF/2007/76, which is gratefully acknowledged. The author is also grateful to Andrew
Hurrell, Lucas Kello and participants at an International Relations Faculty Seminar in the
Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, for comments
on earlier drafts.
Notes
1 I use the term episode to encompass any event, action or state of affairs in international
relations, whether historical or contemporary, for which a theoretical explanation is sought.2 Covering laws may in fact be inductively derived, but when used in an explanatory capacity
they are deductively applied: outcomes may be deduced from the (inductively derived)
covering law when the specified antecedent conditions are fulfilled.
3 A similar case may be made in relation to Waltz (1993).
4 There is disagreement about whether constructivism should be treated as an explanatory theory.
Wendt (1999) seeks to develop a positivist constructivism, and Dessler (1999) treats constructivism
as a positivist approach, but Ruggie (1998b: 856) insists that it is a philosophically and theoretically
informed perspective on and approach to the empirical study of international relations rather than
a fully fledged theory.5 It is doubtful whether a covering law explanation in fact explains an episode, as distinct from
showing that it was to be expected because that is what always happens (see Scriven, 1959;
Suganami, 2008: 331). However, I am concerned only with whether the model accurately
captures explanatory theorists practices.
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18 European Journal of International Relations XX(X)
6 This may partly explain why so many competing claims are sometimes categorized under a
single theoretical heading.
7 Keohane (2005: 69) also describes game theory and the theory of collective action as having
great heuristic value.8 Scriven (1959) suggests that judgement feeds off normic statements: claims about what is
normal and, as a corollary, what does and does not need explaining. This is more plausible than
the idea that judgement feeds off putative covering laws.
9 Waltz (2000: 38) acknowledges that neorealism does not lead one to expect that states will
always or even usually engage in balancing behaviour.
10 Nevertheless, later realists have focused on neorealisms deductive adequacy, most prominently
in the debate about what follows from anarchy (see, for example, Schweller, 1996).
11 These claims constitute evidence for the specific case Waltz is making, rather than for any
putative causal generalization that may lie at the heart of neorealist theory.
12 Historians and political scientists also have distinct disciplinary identities (see Levy, 1997:
23). For a fuller discussion of the relationship between History and International Relations see
Elman and Elman (2001).
13 This understanding is not to be contrasted with explanation, as in Drays claim that historians try
to understand actors reasons for their actions (see Dray, 1974), but is the kind of understanding
that enables one to explain something (see Suganami, 2008).
14 The claim that we rely on a community of experts is comparable to the critical realist contention
that although knowledge is a social product we are capable of adjudicating between rival
accounts (see Patomaki and Wight, 2000: 224).
15 It does imply that causal explanations do not derive from the development and application of
covering laws (see Kurki, 2006; Suganami, 1996).
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Biographical note
Adam R.C. Humphreys is a British Academy Post-Doctoral Fellow in the Department of
Politics and International Relations, Oxford University and a Research Fellow at NuffieldCollege, Oxford. His research interests are in International Relations theory, the nature
of explanation, the work of Kenneth Waltz and the relationship between History and
International Relations.