Apresentação Cornelius Luca - Banco Best...2014/11/07 · US
Transcript of Apresentação Cornelius Luca - Banco Best...2014/11/07 · US
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Thank youOs presentes documentos foram elaborados pelos oradores,
não podendo ser considerado pelo destinatário
solicitação de compra ou venda de quaisquer produtos
negociação particular. A Informação contida no documento
justificar qualquer acção ou omissão, sustentar qualquerjustificar qualquer acção ou omissão, sustentar qualquer
próprio do destinatário, sendo este inteiramente responsável
Qualquer gráfico, cotação ou análise constante no documento
que reproduzem ojulgamento do Banco, e portanto,
de qualquer cotação, gráfico ou análise. Os dados
passado e não são indicadores confiáveis de resultados
Toda a informação presente neste documento reflecte
encontrando-se por isso sujeito a alteração sem aviso
Recomenda-se aos destinatários que se informem
investimento em qualquer produto, sobre a natureza
Os produtos de “trading” estão sujeitos a riscos de
total do capital investido, sendo as características
market maker, podendo variar devido ao activo subjacente
Thank youoradores, tendo um carácter meramente informativo,
como uma recomendação de investimento, uma
produtos ou de participação em qualquer estratégia de
documento não deve, nem pode, desencadear ou
qualquer operação, nem substituir qualquer julgamento
Disclaimer
qualquer operação, nem substituir qualquer julgamento
responsável pelos actos e omissões que pratique.
documento foi preparada com base em parâmetros
portanto, não é dada nenhuma garantia quanto a precisão
dados incluídos no presente documento referem-se ao
resultados futuros.
reflecte as condições prevalecentes no mercado,
aviso prévio.
informem devidamente, antes de qualquer decisão de
natureza deste e sobre os riscos a que estarão expostos.
investimento, incluindo a possibilidade de perda do
características específicas de cada produto definidas por cada
subjacente ou ao mercado onde se encontra inserido.
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Euro’s Standing Among Majors
Banco Best 2014
Euro’s Standing Among Majors
Banco Best 2014 4
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Euro’s Standing Among Europeans
Banco Best 2014
Euro’s Standing Among Europeans
Banco Best 2014 5
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EUR/USD vs. European Yields
Does One-Size Fit All?
Banco Best 2014
EUR/USD vs. European Yields
Size Fit All?
Banco Best 2014 6
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Yen’s Standing Among Asian FX
Banco Best 2014
Yen’s Standing Among Asian FX
Banco Best 2014 7
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Dollar/yen estimates in 6 months
Banco Best 2014
Dollar/yen estimates in 6 months
Banco Best 2014 8
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AUD/JPY
Banco Best 2014
AUD/JPY
Banco Best 2014 9
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Euro/dollar
Banco Best 2014
Euro/dollar
Banco Best 2014 10
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Euro/dollar vs. 2 & 10
Banco Best 2014
Euro/dollar vs. 2 & 10-year Spreads
Banco Best 2014 11
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Euro/dollar estimates in 6 months
Banco Best 2014
Euro/dollar estimates in 6 months
Banco Best 2014 12
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Heikin-Ashi; Main Dish or Side Dish?
Banco Best 2014
Ashi; Main Dish or Side Dish?
Banco Best 2014 13
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The Thorny CNH-
Banco Best 2014
-JPY Relationship
Banco Best 2014 14
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Banco Best 2014Banco Best 2014 15
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G7 Currencies vs. BRIC Currencies
Banco Best 2014
G7 Currencies vs. BRIC Currencies
Banco Best 2014 16
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The State of Global Economic Recovery
Banco Best 2014
The State of Global Economic Recovery
Banco Best 2014 17
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Fear vs. Growth
Banco Best 2014
Fear vs. Growth
Banco Best 2014 18
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Risk on/Risk off vs. S&P 500
Banco Best 2014
Risk on/Risk off vs. S&P 500
Banco Best 2014 19
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Dow Jones for the rest of 2014
Banco Best 2014
Dow Jones for the rest of 2014
Banco Best 2014 20
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S&P 500 vs G7 Indexes
Banco Best 2014
S&P 500 vs G7 Indexes
Banco Best 2014 21
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Silicon Valley Portfolio
Banco Best 2014
Silicon Valley Portfolio
Banco Best 2014 22
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Relative Rotational Graph
Banco Best 2014
Relative Rotational Graph
Banco Best 2014 23
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The Good & the Bad
Banco Best 2014
The Good & the Bad
Banco Best 2014 24
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Social Media Heat Map
Banco Best 2014
Social Media Heat Map
Banco Best 2014 25
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Sentiment Bubble Chart
Banco Best 2014
Sentiment Bubble Chart
Banco Best 2014 26
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Applicable Fundamentals
Banco Best 2014
Applicable Fundamentals
Banco Best 2014 27
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Thank youOs presentes documentos foram elaborados pelos oradores,
não podendo ser considerado pelo destinatário
solicitação de compra ou venda de quaisquer produtos
negociação particular. A Informação contida no documento
justificar qualquer acção ou omissão, sustentar qualquerjustificar qualquer acção ou omissão, sustentar qualquer
próprio do destinatário, sendo este inteiramente responsável
Qualquer gráfico, cotação ou análise constante no documento
que reproduzem ojulgamento do Banco, e portanto,
de qualquer cotação, gráfico ou análise. Os dados
passado e não são indicadores confiáveis de resultados
Toda a informação presente neste documento reflecte
encontrando-se por isso sujeito a alteração sem aviso
Recomenda-se aos destinatários que se informem
investimento em qualquer produto, sobre a natureza
Os produtos de “trading” estão sujeitos a riscos de
total do capital investido, sendo as características
market maker, podendo variar devido ao activo subjacente
Thank youoradores, tendo um carácter meramente informativo,
como uma recomendação de investimento, uma
produtos ou de participação em qualquer estratégia de
documento não deve, nem pode, desencadear ou
qualquer operação, nem substituir qualquer julgamento
Disclaimer
qualquer operação, nem substituir qualquer julgamento
responsável pelos actos e omissões que pratique.
documento foi preparada com base em parâmetros
portanto, não é dada nenhuma garantia quanto a precisão
dados incluídos no presente documento referem-se ao
resultados futuros.
reflecte as condições prevalecentes no mercado,
aviso prévio.
informem devidamente, antes de qualquer decisão de
natureza deste e sobre os riscos a que estarão expostos.
investimento, incluindo a possibilidade de perda do
características específicas de cada produto definidas por cada
subjacente ou ao mercado onde se encontra inserido.
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FX outlook: USD bull in an FX FX outlook: USD bull in an FX China shop
Lisbon/Porto, November 2014, Saxo Bank A/S
Image source: http://lampoonthesystem.com/user/cartoon_detail.php?id=100
FX outlook: USD bull in an FX FX outlook: USD bull in an FX China shop
Lisbon/Porto, November 2014, Saxo Bank A/S
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FX Themes:
• USD Bull Market: Only as long as we have
• ECB’s war on two fronts: EU tail risks and currency war
• Japan: Desperation time…
• Pop go the housing bubbles:
UK, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Canada
• China’s reform is for real
USD Bull Market: Only as long as we have Fed normalization…?
ECB’s war on two fronts: EU tail risks and currency war
UK, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Canada
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� Fed: Do we make it to the first hike?
� ECB: eventual “Real” QE ?
Monetary Policy: A world of QE, with US exceptionalism?
� ECB: eventual “Real” QE ?
� BOJ: No, it won’t work this time,
either…
� SNB: countdown to negative rates?
� G10 Smalls: New QE entrants?
-> Sweden’s Riksbank paving the way-> Sweden’s Riksbank paving the way
� China to devalue?
: Do we make it to the first hike?
Monetary Policy: A world of QE, with US exceptionalism?
rates?
way…way…
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US recovery still looks strong
ISM non
Weekly jobless claims
US recovery still looks strong
ISM non-manufacturing
Weekly jobless claims
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Wage growth: the key to avoiding deflation
http://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-charts-in-the-world-q4-2014-10#jared-woodard-bgc-financial
Wage growth: the key to avoiding deflation
financial-23
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Fed policy: will the future ever arrive?
September 2015 Fed Funds Future:
Fed policy: will the future ever arrive?
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The “Dot Plot” of Sep 17 FOMC
Current marketexpectations Nov. 14
The “Dot Plot” of Sep 17 FOMC
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USD bull – 44-year high
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EURUSD: Head and Shoulders?EURUSD: Head and Shoulders?
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USD Bull: Still early daysUSD Bull: Still early days
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Possible to return to normality?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/10/31/2026422/qe-who-needs-ya-no-dont-answer-that/
Possible to return to normality?
that/
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Can Markets Handle no QE?
-> Corporate Bonds and Stocks and the Fed
Can Markets Handle no QE?
> Corporate Bonds and Stocks and the Fed
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“Solving the last crisis” and creating the next one.
Dodd-Frank, Volcker RuleDodd-Frank, Volcker Rule
“Solving the last crisis” and creating the next one.
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“Solving the last crisis” and creating the next one.
Investment banks holding “less inventory”
“Solving the last crisis” and creating the next one.
Investment banks holding “less inventory”
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Corporate Bonds – today’s subtoday’s sub-prime?
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Corporate Bonds – leading indicator
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USDJPY driver: Kuroda’s 2USDJPY driver: Kuroda’s 2nd big move…
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Central Bank Balance Sheets
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2014/11/02/bank-of-japan-opens-the-floodgates/
Central Bank Balance Sheets
floodgates/
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Kuroda must engineer financial repression…
-> Negative Real Rates
Negative real rates!
Kuroda must engineer financial repression…
> Negative Real Rates
Negative real rates!
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In order to turn this around…
Japan’s tax revenues the same as 1986…
In order to turn this around…
Japan’s tax revenues the same as 1986…
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Japan’s current accountJapan’s current account
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Japan’s (and Germany’s!) population profile
Source: CIA World Factbook
Japan’s (and Germany’s!) population profile
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Anatomy of a JPY volatility explosion
� BoJ promises massive asset purchases
� Domestic investors and GPIF dump domestic bonds buy domestic
stocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocksstocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocks
� Global equity investors see cheap Japanese equity valuation and
pumping asset prices – buy Japanese stocks and hedge their JPY
exposure
Back to the future: global asset markets go into tailspin and JPY is
the biggest, most consensus trade going, reversing from some
impossibly weak level.
USDJPY to 150 and then to 100?
Anatomy of a JPY volatility explosion
promises massive asset purchases
Domestic investors and GPIF dump domestic bonds buy domestic
stocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocksstocks and higher yielding foreign bonds (mostly) and foreign stocks
Global equity investors see cheap Japanese equity valuation and BoJ
buy Japanese stocks and hedge their JPY
: global asset markets go into tailspin and JPY is
the biggest, most consensus trade going, reversing from some
USDJPY to 150 and then to 100?
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JPY still trading like in the old daysJPY still trading like in the old days
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It’s about real rates (think financial repression)
150.00
USDJPY vs. US/Japan
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
60.00
70.00
USDJPY
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Bank Strategy & Research
It’s about real rates (think financial repression)
4.00
USDJPY vs. US/Japan real rates
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
-4.00
-3.00
US/Japan Real Interest Rate
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EURUSD vs. Real Interest Rate Spread
1.70
EURUSD vs. EUR/US real rates
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
0.80
0.90
EURUSD
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Bank Strategy & Research
EURUSD vs. Real Interest Rate Spread
3.00
EURUSD vs. EUR/US real rates
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
-3.00
-2.00
EU/US Real Interest Rate
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EURUSD driver: Central Bank Balance sheets
0.60
0.80
EURUSD vs. Fed/ECB Balance Sheet
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
-0.80
Fed/ECB ∆ of YoY Growth Rates
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Bank Strategy & Research
EURUSD driver: Central Bank Balance sheets
1.5000
1.5500
EURUSD vs. Fed/ECB Balance Sheet
1.2000
1.2500
1.3000
1.3500
1.4000
1.4500
1.1500
EURUSD
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Portugal – an unbearable burdenan unbearable burden
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EU’s pressing question: how is debt destroyed?
When Debt-to-GDP is unsustainable, five ways to reduce debt
1. Economic growth – grow the pie
2. Fiscal adjustment-austerity – (just don’t forget those multipliers)
3. Explicit (de jure) default or restructuring
4. Inflation surprise
5. Financial repression accompanied by a steady dose of inflation
Source: SocGen and IMF, Dec. 2013
Market thinks it’s 1 and 2 – but more likely going to be 3 and 5.
EU’s pressing question: how is debt destroyed?
GDP is unsustainable, five ways to reduce debt
(just don’t forget those multipliers)
Explicit (de jure) default or restructuring
Financial repression accompanied by a steady dose of inflation
but more likely going to be 3 and 5.
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EU periphery… Convergence Trade Done: what now?EU periphery… Convergence Trade Done: what now?
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Germany needs inflation/higher wages !Germany needs inflation/higher wages !
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The great risks of QE:
Printing money = bubbles = deflation
- Leigh Skene, Lombard Street Research
Out of the “Balance Sheet Out of the “Balance Sheet
Recession“and into the “QE Trap”
- Richard Koo, Nomura Research Institute
The great risks of QE:
Printing money = bubbles = deflation
Leigh Skene, Lombard Street Research
Out of the “Balance Sheet Out of the “Balance Sheet
Recession“and into the “QE Trap”
Richard Koo, Nomura Research Institute
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The great risk of QE: Everything mispriced
• Exercise makes a body stronger
• Real market and business volatility and
price discovery makes our markets and
economy stronger
• The opposite (current status quo) makes • The opposite (current status quo) makes
them weaker
The great risk of QE: Everything mispriced
Exercise makes a body stronger
Real market and business volatility and
price discovery makes our markets and
economy stronger
The opposite (current status quo) makes The opposite (current status quo) makes
them weaker
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Next crisis: reality or new doses of intervention?
•
•
Next crisis: reality or new doses of intervention?
Next evolutionary step: Helicopter Money
to stimulate the economy directly (Overt
Monetary Financing)Monetary Financing)
We know where that ends…
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EM tightening started a long time ago…
BrazilBrazilSouth AfricaTurkeyIndia
EM tightening started a long time ago…
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China: Real Estate bubble is finishedChina: Real Estate bubble is finished
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Xi Jinping’s intent on reform intent on reform – knows risks
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China housing market correction for real
http://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-charts-in-the-world-q4-2014-10#wei-yao-societe-generale
China housing market correction for real
generale-67
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China’s FX Reserves dropped >$100B in 1 month!China’s FX Reserves dropped >$100B in 1 month!
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China CPI lowest in almost 5 yearsPI lowest in almost 5 years
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China’s currency at record high
-> Countdown to devaluation?
JPYUSD
CNYUSD
China’s currency at record high – can’t afford it
> Countdown to devaluation?
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If US recovery falters …
-> Currency Wars return with a vengeance
If US recovery falters …
> Currency Wars return with a vengeance
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Nice sovereign balance sheets for “the G10 smalls”Nice sovereign balance sheets for “the G10 smalls”
• Australia• Canada• New Zealand• Norway• Sweden
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Big little housing bubbles
Q: Where does private debt end up after housing bubbles pop?
A: As public debt…
Big little housing bubbles
Q: Where does private debt end up after housing bubbles pop?
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China: $1.5 trillion in capital flight in last year alone?
Source: http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_chinese_fortunes_are_hidden_EQ7mBdl8pJh7Hy3q9aw6qO
China: $1.5 trillion in capital flight in last year alone?
Source: http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_chinese_fortunes_are_hidden_EQ7mBdl8pJh7Hy3q9aw6qO
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US politics in an ice age until at least early 2017US fiscal policy on ice until at least 2017…US politics in an ice age until at least early 2017US fiscal policy on ice until at least 2017…
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FX Trade Ideas for next 3-6 months:
• Long US dollar – for another 6 months or more
• Short JPY for now, but be careful...move may not last long
• Euro weakness largely priced in for near term?
• Short AUD and especially NZD vs. CAD
• EM trouble spots to return if US data improves long MXN long MXN
• Gold and silver – monetary madness has to mean a buy at some point
6 months:
for another 6 months or more
Short JPY for now, but be careful...move may not last long
Euro weakness largely priced in for near term?
Short AUD and especially NZD vs. CAD
EM trouble spots to return if US data improves – short TRY, ZAR,
monetary madness has to mean a buy at some
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Chart: AUDUSD
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Chart: NZDUSD
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Thank youThank you
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Thank youOs presentes documentos foram elaborados pelos oradores,
não podendo ser considerado pelo destinatário
solicitação de compra ou venda de quaisquer produtos
negociação particular. A Informação contida no documento
justificar qualquer acção ou omissão, sustentar qualquerjustificar qualquer acção ou omissão, sustentar qualquer
próprio do destinatário, sendo este inteiramente responsável
Qualquer gráfico, cotação ou análise constante no documento
que reproduzem ojulgamento do Banco, e portanto,
de qualquer cotação, gráfico ou análise. Os dados
passado e não são indicadores confiáveis de resultados
Toda a informação presente neste documento reflecte
encontrando-se por isso sujeito a alteração sem aviso
Recomenda-se aos destinatários que se informem
investimento em qualquer produto, sobre a natureza
Os produtos de “trading” estão sujeitos a riscos de
total do capital investido, sendo as características
market maker, podendo variar devido ao activo subjacente
Thank youoradores, tendo um carácter meramente informativo,
como uma recomendação de investimento, uma
produtos ou de participação em qualquer estratégia de
documento não deve, nem pode, desencadear ou
qualquer operação, nem substituir qualquer julgamento
Disclaimer
qualquer operação, nem substituir qualquer julgamento
responsável pelos actos e omissões que pratique.
documento foi preparada com base em parâmetros
portanto, não é dada nenhuma garantia quanto a precisão
dados incluídos no presente documento referem-se ao
resultados futuros.
reflecte as condições prevalecentes no mercado,
aviso prévio.
informem devidamente, antes de qualquer decisão de
natureza deste e sobre os riscos a que estarão expostos.
investimento, incluindo a possibilidade de perda do
características específicas de cada produto definidas por cada
subjacente ou ao mercado onde se encontra inserido.
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Deflation: The Elephant in the room
Portugal, November 2015, Saxo Bank A/S
Deflation: The Elephant in the room
Portugal, November 2015, Saxo Bank A/S
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How bad is it?How bad is it?
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One Trading view:
Fixed income will outperform
US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015
A simple man’s view of the world
US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015
One Economic view:
Dis-inflation/deflation
sell-off
One Timing view:
Macro core view
Q2/Q3-2015 low in this
One guaranteed view:
Volatility will go SIGNIFICANTLY up….
outperform all assets. 10YR
US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015
A simple man’s view of the world
US <1.50% by Q2/Q3 2015
inflation/deflation will be catalyst for asset
this cycle for ALL indicators
:
go SIGNIFICANTLY up….
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Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..
Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..
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Watch November for big drop in US YieldsWatch November for big drop in US Yields
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Low point getting closer: Q1/Q2 2015Low point getting closer: Q1/Q2 2015
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Low point getting closer: Q1/Q2 2015Low point getting closer: Q1/Q2 2015
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The Economic Bermuda Triangle
Steen Jakobsen’s Economic Theory
The Economic Bermuda Triangle
s Economic Theory – Where is my Nobel Prize?
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80/20-Principle
The Pareto principle (the law of the vital few,The Pareto principle (the law of the vital few,sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come
from 20% of the causes.
• 80% of all credit given to 20% listed companies and banks
• 20% of population owns 80% of wealth
• 80% of all jobs comes from Small-and Medium Sized companies
• 20 mio. SME’s in Europe alone (27 mio. in the US)
• 20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe • 20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe
• 80% economy needs growth to sustain 20%
• 80% return in SME’s vs. 20% in big companies next 5 years?
• ”Betting” on 20% will lead to 80% chance of Japanisation
Principle
law of the vital few, and the principle of factor law of the vital few, and the principle of factor ) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come
from 20% of the causes.[1][2]
80% of all credit given to 20% listed companies and banks
20% of population owns 80% of wealth
and Medium Sized companies
s in Europe alone (27 mio. in the US)
20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe 20 mio. people now unemployed in Europe
80% economy needs growth to sustain 20%
s vs. 20% in big companies next 5 years?
on 20% will lead to 80% chance of Japanisation
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Where does growth go from here?Where does growth go from here?
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European recovery European recovery – Where?
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2015 also a total loss for growth?
450
500
Copper (3 mos lead)
and World growth
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
1-31-2006 1-31-2007 1-31-2008 1-31-2009 1-31-2010 1-31
Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank
2015 also a total loss for growth?
4,00
6,00
Copper (3 mos lead)
and World growth
-4,00
-2,00
0,00
2,00
4,00
#N/A Field Not Applicable (lead 3 months)
World GDP (YoY %)
-6,00
31-2011 1-31-2012 1-31-2013 1-31-2014 1-31-2015
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No defaults, no growth and no inflation means?No defaults, no growth and no inflation means?
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Minsky momentMinsky moment
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Final Notice: Credit is 75% of : Credit is 75% of growth
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Deflation: The death of status quoDeflation: The death of status quo
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US: Disinflation to deflation?
2,50
3,00
US 5Y and 10Y Breakeven
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
US Breakeven 5 Year (lead 0 months)
-1,00
-0,50US Breakeven 5 Year (lead 0 months)
US Breakeven 10 Year
Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank
US: Disinflation to deflation?
2,50
3,00
US 5Y and 10Y Breakeven
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
-1,00
-0,50
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US: Disinflation to deflation?US: Disinflation to deflation?
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Inflation at low level = Economic damage
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ECB – final round with DraghiDraghi and easy money?
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The deflation ECB didn’t believe in…The deflation ECB didn’t believe in…
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ECB keeps talking (& dreaming)ECB keeps talking (& dreaming)
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Why are we copying Japanese model?Why are we copying Japanese model?
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Europe’s internal devaluationEurope’s internal devaluation
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European banking sector is still sick…..European banking sector is still sick…..
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China and Japan
At opposite ends?
China and Japan
At opposite ends?
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JAPAN QE Desperado – a very imprecise weapona very imprecise weapon
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China is 5% growth next five years….China is 5% growth next five years….
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Markets and RISKMarkets and RISK
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US Real economy leads S&P?US Real economy leads S&P?
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End of US supremacy?End of US supremacy?
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Positions:• FI: Long US Fixed income – Sub 1.5000 in Q1/Q2
• FX: Short AUD, Short BRICS
• Equity: Neutral (25% allocation)
• Commodities: Short: Copper, Iron Ore vs. Long Aluminium
•Monetary Policy:• ECB: Deflation running away from ECB / No full blown QE possible
• BOJ: QE Infinite – what’s retiring deb? Desperation
• FED: Tapering will finalize. New expansion of balance sheet H2
• China will continue to slow – response?
Predictions 2015:• Recession in Germany(Euro area) & Near recession in the US
• Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1• Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1
• 2014 peak in US Dollar – 2015 US dollar will start secular weakning
• Small cap + SME’s will outperform 20% segment by 10%
• BRIC’s will collapse on non-reform
Macro Outlook in headlines
Sub 1.5000 in Q1/Q2
Commodities: Short: Copper, Iron Ore vs. Long Aluminium
ECB: Deflation running away from ECB / No full blown QE possible
what’s retiring deb? Desperation
FED: Tapering will finalize. New expansion of balance sheet H2-2015
Recession in Germany(Euro area) & Near recession in the US
Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1Inflation: Low in ‘inflation expectations’ by Q1
2015 US dollar will start secular weakning
Small cap + SME’s will outperform 20% segment by 10%
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Outragous Predictions 2015Outragous Predictions 2015
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OP-
• UK House prices to drop 20%
• Draghi leaves ECB and becomes Italian President
• Russia goes bankrupt
• Biggest Vulcano eurupts -Bárðarbunga
Japan in recession• Japan in recession
• Corporate bond spreads explodes higher
• CNY devalues
-2015
Draghi leaves ECB and becomes Italian President
Bárðarbunga
Corporate bond spreads explodes higher
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